Statistical consulting

The paper and the special issue focus on the activity of statistical consulting and its varieties. This includes academic consulting, consulting to and in industry as well as statistics in public media.     

Bayesian inference for a discretely observed stochastic kinetic model

The ability to infer parameters of gene regulatory networks is emerging as a key problem in systems biology. The biochemical data are intrinsically stochastic and tend to be observed by means of discrete-time sampling systems, which are often limited in their completeness. In this paper we explore how to make Bayesian inference for the kinetic rate constants of regulatory networks, using the stochastic kinetic Lotka-Volterra system as a model. This simple model describes behaviour typical of many biochemical networks which exhibit auto-regulatory behaviour. Various MCMC algorithms are described and their performance evaluated in several data-poor scenarios. An algorithm based on an approximating process is shown to be particularly efficient.     

A graphical summary of disparities in health care and related summary measures

In order to assess the effectiveness of government programs designed to reduce disparities in the health care minority groups receive relative to the majority white population, a proper statistical measure should be used. This article proposes a measure of and its accompanying graph, which is readily interpretable and is not affected by the number of minority subgroups examined.     

A simulation study of a discrete-time multiserver retrial queue with finite population

In this paper, we deal with a discrete-time multiserver retrial queue with finite population. Firstly, we study the Markov chain at the epochs immediately after slot boundaries making emphasis on the computation of its steady-state distribution. Then, the main performance measures are investigated. Besides, we simulate the waiting time of a customer in the retrial group under three different queueing policies. Some numerical examples are given to illustrate the analysis.     

Asthma Patients' Activities and Air Pollution: A Semiparametric Censored Regression Analysis

Asthma patients' health status may be especially sensitive to some types of air pollution, but the evidence on this is mixed. We explore the effects of ground-level ozone on asthma patient's activities, breaking apart the usual aggregated category of leisure into indoor and outdoor activities, and differentiating those by whether the activities were active or inactive. Applying the semiparametric censored estimation method we demonstrate that even though the period over which activities were observed was relatively low in ozone levels, there is a significant impact of ozone on a few activities. The (non-ozone) economic and demographic variables in the model play significant roles in explaining the allocation of time among seven activities, suggesting the suitability of the approach for other household decision-making contexts.     

Bayesian locally optimal design of knockout tournaments

The elimination or knockout format is one of the most common designs for pairing competitors in tournaments and leagues. In each round of a knockout tournament, the losers are eliminated while the winners advance to the next round. Typically, the goal of such a design is to identify the overall best player. Using a common probability model for expressing relative player strengths, we develop an adaptive approach to pairing players each round in which the probability that the best player advances to the next round is maximized. We evaluate our method using simulated game outcomes under several data-generating mechanisms, and compare it to random pairings, to the standard knockout format, and to two variants of the standard format.     

Predicting body fat using weight–height indices

While body fat is the most accurate measure of obesity, its measurement requires special equipment that can be costly and time consuming to operate. Attention has thus typically focused on the easier to calculate body mass index (BMI). However, the ability of BMI to accurately identify obesity has been increasingly questioned. This paper focuses attention on whether more general body mass indices are appropriate measures of body fat. Using a data set of body fat, height, and weight measurements, general models are estimated which nest a wide variety of weight–height indices as special cases. In the absence of a race and gender categorisation, the conventional BMI was found to be the appropriate index with which to predict body fat. When such a categorisation was made, however, the BMI was never selected as the appropriate index. In general, predicted female body fat was some 10 kg higher than that of a male of identical build and predicted % body fat was over 11 percentage points higher, but age effects were smaller for females. Considerable racial differences in predicted body fat were found for males, but such differences were less marked for females. The implications of this finding for interpreting recent research on the effect of obesity on health, society, and economic factors are considered.     

Optimal scaling of Metropolis algorithms: Heading toward general target distributions

The authors provide an overview of optimal scaling results for the Metropolis algorithm with Gaussian proposal distribution. They address in more depth the case of high‐dimensional target distributions formed of independent, but not identically distributed components. They attempt to give an intuitive explanation as to why the well‐known optimal acceptance rate of 0.234 is not always suitable. They show how to find the asymptotically optimal acceptance rate when needed, and they explain why it is sometimes necessary to turn to inhomogeneous proposal distributions. Their results are illustrated with a simple example.