Month of Birth and Dementia Late in Life

Dementia is one of the most common, still incurable diseases of old age, with high costs for the patient, the family and the society. Scholars of dementia have identified important risk factors in mid-life but little attention has been devoted to the earliest period in life. This article extends the research about risk factors of dementia to the time around birth. We start by discussing the influential theories of fetal programming and of the thrifty phenotype, and briefly contrast these theories with life-course approaches and the theory of the accumulation of advantage or disadvantage over the life course. Our own empirical study is based on an exogenous indicator of the early life environment, namely the month of birth. We present the theoretical background of using this indicator and discuss others such as famines, epidemics, and macro-economic fluctuations. Using data from the largest public health insurer in Germany we explore the relationship between the month of birth and dementia and find that the winter-born have the lowest risk of developing dementia. We present the pros and cons of using claims data in the study of dementia and discuss research findings that may shed light on the biological mechanisms underlying our finding.     

Marginal distribution of Markov-switching VAR processes

We make available simple and accurate closed-form approximations to the marginal distribution of Markov-switching vector auto-regressive (MS VAR) processes. The approximation is built upon the property of MS VAR processes of being Gaussian conditionally on any semi-infinite sequence of the latent state. Truncating the semi-infinite sequence and averaging over all possible sequences of that finite length yields a mixture of normals that converges to the unknown marginal distribution as the sequence length increases. Numerical experiments confirm the viability of the approach which extends to the closely related class of MS state space models. Several applications are discussed.     

What does Ubuntu solve? Thoughts on the rhetoric used in the making of the Heritage Transformation Charter

Following the drafting of the Heritage Transformation Charter, an academic study investigated one of the mandates of the Charter, that of oral traditions as part of South Africa’s living heritage. Through an engagement with the discursive elements of both the draft and final texts of the Charter, it found that the authors of the Charter considered Ubuntu as its underlying philosophy, which should inform not only the heritage sector but become an overarching principle for nation building. This approach transpired mostly through the use of rhetoric in the Charter texts, which seemingly placed the discussion of the concept of Ubuntu and to a certain degree the entire Charter firmly within a postcolonial Afro-centric position. Following some of the rhetoric with regard to Ubuntu, and considering the characteristics of rhetoric, its functions and manifestations, the paper will trace the effects of such rhetoric from within the context of a public document such as the Charter to the context of the wider South African society. Thereby, elaborating on the rhetoric around Ubuntu in the Charter texts, it will demonstrate in part how such rhetoric is used in shaping the wider postcolonial and post-apartheid discourse in the present socio-economic dispensation.     

Naturalising,Neutralising Women's Bodies: The “Headscarf Affair” and the Politics of Representation

The recent “headscarf affair” has created a divisive national crisis in several European countries. Like Turkey, France and Germany have introduced legislation prohibiting “conspicuous” religious symbols in government institutions. The article argues that interpretations of ‘Muslim’ female head covering as a sign of oppression ignore their resemblance to European symbols of ideal womanhood. The question of the ‘ethnicity’ of the symbol is thus elusive, and the assertion of categorical difference can be challenged on the level of citizenship law. Recent amendments to German citizenship law based on jus sanguinis have eased immigrants' adoption of citizenship, diminishing the contrast with the French jus soli. Thus, in Germany there has been a shift from the emphasis on the transmission of substance toward display of cultural competence through other forms of embodiment. In both Germany and France, in key social locations of state reproduction, national belonging and loyalty to the state must be demonstrated through linguistic competence and modes of bodily performance that mainly focus on women.     

Using data augmentation to correct for non-ignorable non-response when surrogate data are available: an application to the distribution of hourly pay

Summary.  The paper develops a data augmentation method to estimate the distribution function of a variable, which is partially observed, under a non-ignorable missing data mechanism, and where surrogate data are available. An application to the estimation of hourly pay distributions using UK Labour Force Survey data provides the main motivation. In addition to considering a standard parametric data augmentation method, we consider the use of hot deck imputation methods as part of the data augmentation procedure to improve the robustness of the method. The method proposed is compared with standard methods that are based on an ignorable missing data mechanism, both in a simulation study and in the Labour Force Survey application. The focus is on reducing bias in point estimation, but variance estimation using multiple imputation is also considered briefly.     

It's not who you know,it's how you know them: Who exchanges what with whom?

Reciprocity – doing for others if they have done for you – is a key way people mobilize resources to deal with daily life and seize opportunities. In principle, reciprocity (the Golden Rule) is a universal norm. In practice, it is variable. Personal networks rarely operate as solidarities and as such, people cannot count on all the members of their networks to provide help all the time. Rather, social support comes uncertainly from a variety of ties in networks. This paper uses survey research to understand the variable and contingent nature of reciprocity and inquires about the kinds of resources exchanged between people. We investigate the extent to which interpersonal ties, network characteristics, and people's personal characteristics (e.g., gender) affect the nature of reciprocal relationships. The evidence is extraordinarily clear on one subject – giving support is strongly associated with getting it. Analyses show that getting support from network members is the key to East Yorkers reciprocating – usually in kind but sometimes with other forms of support.     

Stop, Look and Listen! When Vocal and Nonvocal Adults Communicate

This study focuses on the communicative interactions of three nonvocal, physically disabled adults who use an augmentative device in place of speech with their vocal peers, teachers, families, and friends. Using an ethnographic perspective, audio-visual equipment and field notes were used to record interactions occurring in naturalistic settings. Three aspects of the communication interaction interfere systematically with the quality of the interaction: the perceptions of the nondisabled communication partners regarding disability; patterns of speech resembling adult-child interactions; and the unwillingness of some nondisabled people to communicate. Issues of power and control are suggested as possible causes. The success of the communication act may lie not in the sophistication of the augmentative device, but rather in the willingness of the communication partner to accept the nonvocal person as a capable communication partner.