Left-censored dementia incidences in estimating cohort effects

Lifetime Data Analysis - We estimate the dementia incidence hazard in Germany for the birth cohorts 1900 until 1954 from a simple sample of Germany’s largest health insurance company....     

Knowledge,Risk Perceptions,and Xenophobic Attitudes: Evidence from Italy During the Ebola Outbreak

The purposes of the current study were twofold: (1) to investigate affective and cognitive responses and social‐contextual factors related to Ebola and their intercorrelations in a developed country without widespread Ebola transmission; and (2) to examine the relationships among risk perception of Ebola, levels of knowledge about Ebola, and (blatant and subtle) prejudice toward African immigrants. Between January 2015 and March 2015, an anonymous cross‐sectional survey was conducted among a convenience sample of 486 Italian adults. Results showed that most participants were not particularly concerned about Ebola and did not feel at risk of acquiring the virus. Cognitive dimensions of risk perception of Ebola (i.e., perceived severity of illness, perceived personal impact, perceived coping efficacy, and likelihood of infection), affective response (or worry) to Ebola, and social‐contextual factors (i.e., perceived preparedness of institutions, family members’ and friends’ levels of worry) were interrelated. Prejudice toward African immigrants was positively related to risk perception of Ebola and negatively related to levels of knowledge about Ebola even when controlling for sociodemographic variables including political preference.     

Field of Study and University Graduates' Early Employment Outcomes in Italy during 1995–2004

Abstract. In a period of expanding higher education, the field of study becomes a key determinant of university graduates' labour market success. In this paper, by means of multivariate analyses of the quality of graduates' early employment outcomes, we first describe how the effect of different fields of study on the university‐to‐work transition changed between 1995 and 2004 in Italy. Second, we put forward some alternative hypotheses to interpret the changes observed over time and assess which ones seem to be more consistent with the data.     

Month of Birth and Dementia Late in Life

Dementia is one of the most common, still incurable diseases of old age, with high costs for the patient, the family and the society. Scholars of dementia have identified important risk factors in mid-life but little attention has been devoted to the earliest period in life. This article extends the research about risk factors of dementia to the time around birth. We start by discussing the influential theories of fetal programming and of the thrifty phenotype, and briefly contrast these theories with life-course approaches and the theory of the accumulation of advantage or disadvantage over the life course. Our own empirical study is based on an exogenous indicator of the early life environment, namely the month of birth. We present the theoretical background of using this indicator and discuss others such as famines, epidemics, and macro-economic fluctuations. Using data from the largest public health insurer in Germany we explore the relationship between the month of birth and dementia and find that the winter-born have the lowest risk of developing dementia. We present the pros and cons of using claims data in the study of dementia and discuss research findings that may shed light on the biological mechanisms underlying our finding.     

Marginal distribution of Markov-switching VAR processes

We make available simple and accurate closed-form approximations to the marginal distribution of Markov-switching vector auto-regressive (MS VAR) processes. The approximation is built upon the property of MS VAR processes of being Gaussian conditionally on any semi-infinite sequence of the latent state. Truncating the semi-infinite sequence and averaging over all possible sequences of that finite length yields a mixture of normals that converges to the unknown marginal distribution as the sequence length increases. Numerical experiments confirm the viability of the approach which extends to the closely related class of MS state space models. Several applications are discussed.     

Using data augmentation to correct for non-ignorable non-response when surrogate data are available: an application to the distribution of hourly pay

Summary.  The paper develops a data augmentation method to estimate the distribution function of a variable, which is partially observed, under a non-ignorable missing data mechanism, and where surrogate data are available. An application to the estimation of hourly pay distributions using UK Labour Force Survey data provides the main motivation. In addition to considering a standard parametric data augmentation method, we consider the use of hot deck imputation methods as part of the data augmentation procedure to improve the robustness of the method. The method proposed is compared with standard methods that are based on an ignorable missing data mechanism, both in a simulation study and in the Labour Force Survey application. The focus is on reducing bias in point estimation, but variance estimation using multiple imputation is also considered briefly.     

It's not who you know,it's how you know them: Who exchanges what with whom?

Reciprocity – doing for others if they have done for you – is a key way people mobilize resources to deal with daily life and seize opportunities. In principle, reciprocity (the Golden Rule) is a universal norm. In practice, it is variable. Personal networks rarely operate as solidarities and as such, people cannot count on all the members of their networks to provide help all the time. Rather, social support comes uncertainly from a variety of ties in networks. This paper uses survey research to understand the variable and contingent nature of reciprocity and inquires about the kinds of resources exchanged between people. We investigate the extent to which interpersonal ties, network characteristics, and people's personal characteristics (e.g., gender) affect the nature of reciprocal relationships. The evidence is extraordinarily clear on one subject – giving support is strongly associated with getting it. Analyses show that getting support from network members is the key to East Yorkers reciprocating – usually in kind but sometimes with other forms of support.     

Ergonomic risk assessment with DesignCheck to evaluate assembly work in different phases of the vehicle development process

Occupational hazards exist, if the design of the work situation is not in accordance with ergonomic design principles. At assembly lines ergonomics is applied to the design of work equipment and tasks and to work organisation. The ignoring of ergonomic principles in planning and design of assembly work leads to unfavourable working posture, action force and material handling. Disorders of the musculoskeletal system are of a common occurrence throughout Europe. Musculoskeletal disorders are a challenge against the background of disabled workers. The changes in a worker's capability have to be regarded in the conception of redesigned and new assembly lines. In this way ergonomics becomes progressively more important in planning and design of vehicles: The objective of ergonomic design in different stages of the vehicles development process is to achieve an optimal adaptation of the assembly work to workers. Hence the ergonomic screening tool "Design Check" (DC) was developed to identify ergonomic deficits in workplace layouts. The screening-tool is based on the current ergonomic state of the art in the design of physical work and relevant EU legal requirements. It was tested within a federal German research project at selected work stations at the assembly lines at Dr.-Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG / Stuttgart. Meanwhile the application of the screening-tool DC is transferred in other parts of the Porsche AG, Stuttgart. It is also realized as an ergonomic standard method to perform assembly work in different phases of the vehicle development process.