A Scenario‐Based Evaluation of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus and the Hajj

Between April 2012 and June 2014, 820 laboratory‐confirmed cases of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS‐CoV) have been reported in the Arabian Peninsula, Europe, North Africa, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the United States. The observed epidemiology is different to SARS, which showed a classic epidemic curve and was over in eight months. The much longer persistence of MERS‐CoV in the population, with a lower reproductive number, some evidence of human‐to‐human transmission but an otherwise sporadic pattern, is difficult to explain. Using available epidemiological data, we implemented mathematical models to explore the transmission dynamics of MERS‐CoV in the context of mass gatherings such as the Hajj pilgrimage, and found a discrepancy between the observed and expected epidemiology. The fact that no epidemic occurred in returning Hajj pilgrims in either 2012 or 2013 contradicts the long persistence of the virus in human populations. The explanations for this discrepancy include an ongoing, repeated nonhuman/sporadic source, a large proportion of undetected or unreported human‐to‐human cases, or a combination of the two. Furthermore, MERS‐CoV is occurring in a region that is a major global transport hub and hosts significant mass gatherings, making it imperative to understand the source and means of the yet unexplained and puzzling ongoing persistence of the virus in the human population.     

THE USES OF BUSINESS GAMING IN EDUCATION AND LABORATORY RESEARCH*

This paper reports an empirical investigation of business gaming in education and research. Subjects were approximately 200 junior and senior undergraduate students who were assigned to seven-man teams on the basis of scores on the Least Preferred Co-worker (LPC) leadership style questionnaire, and who played the Marksim business game during one academic semester. Relationships were explored between post-game perceptions of the game, team atmosphere and the leader, combinations of congruent and incongruent leadership styles, and measures of team performance. Also explored were relationships between several predictor variables (including grade point average) and measures of team performance. The results were generally disappointing in regard to business gaming as an educational tool. However, it seems that business gaming may hold promise for laboratory research in the behavioral sciences. The results of this investigation suggest that relationship-oriented and task-oriented leadership styles and combinations of these styles within hierarchically structured groups affect members' perceptions of the task and other aspects of the task environment but do not affect group performance, at least directly. These results may have significance for those interested in organizational design and the selection and development of leaders for first and second-level managerial positions.     

Early social referencing predicts object mastery motivation in infancy: Social antecedents of object mastery motivation

The researchers sought to understand the typical development of social referencing and object mastery motivation in infancy and to determine the relationship between social referencing and object mastery behaviors in infants from 7 to 22 months of age. The study included 36 infants who were followed as part of a longitudinal study of at-risk infants but were not determined to need care in the neonatal intesive care unit at birth. Both mastery behaviors of persistence and success showed a statistically significant effect of age, while social behaviors remained stable from 7 to 22 months. Social behaviors at 7 and 10 months were correlated with persistence at 22 months and success at 16 to 22 months demonstrating that early social referencing predicts object mastery behaviors in later infancy. Further research should determine if this trend extends to early childhood.     

A Multiperiod Audit Staff Planning Model Using Multiple Objectives: Development and Evaluation*

The audit staff planning problem, a specific type of manpower planning problem, has been modeled using goal programming and, more recently, multiple objective linear programming. Prior studies developed single-period models and did not go beyond the model building stage. This study develops a multiperiod audit staff planning model and evaluates the model using a test application involving actual decision makers (partners in public accounting firms). The multiperiod model includes seven objectives to be optimized: profit (to be maximized), late completion of work, work declined, staff augmentation, staff reduction, underutilization of the work force, and shortfall in meeting professional development targets (all to be minimized). Over a four-quarter planning horizon with one “busy season,” the model is subject to constraints with respect to the projected audit work load, ability to substitute personnel and to perform interim audit work, available staff hours (including overtime limitations), supervisory requirements, and professional development targets. Results of the test application showed that the model was capable of producing a range of values for each objective. The participants were exposed to much of that range when making their decisions. The results also showed that all objectives were important and that participants were consistent in choosing their preferred level of each objective over several runs of the model. These results and the reactions of the participants demonstrate that the model is usable by actual decision makers and has potential for a number of specific applications.