SPECIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF LOGICALLY CONSISTENT LINEAR MODELS

The implications of constrained dependent and independent variables for model parameters are examined. In the context of linear model systems, it is shown that polyhedral constraints on the dependent variables will hold over the domain of the independent variables when a set of polyhedral constraints is satisfied by the model parameters. This result may be used in parameter estimation, in which case all predicted values of the dependent variables are consistent with constraints on the actual values. Also, the implicit constraints that define the set of parameters for many commonly used linear stochastic models with an error term yield values of the dependent variables consistent with the explicit constraints. Models possessing these properties are termed “logically consistent”.     

Binary Response Models for Panel Data: Identification and Information

This paper considers a panel data model for predicting a binary outcome. The conditional probability of a positive response is obtained by evaluating a given distribution function (F) at a linear combination of the predictor variables. One of the predictor variables is unobserved. It is a random effect that varies across individuals but is constant over time. The semiparametric aspect is that the conditional distribution of the random effect, given the predictor variables, is unrestricted. This paper has two results. If the support of the observed predictor variables is bounded, then identification is possible only in the logistic case. Even if the support is unbounded, so that (from Manski (1987)) identification holds quite generally, the information bound is zero unless F is logistic. Hence consistent estimation at the standard pn rate is possible only in the logistic case.     

Will you trust your new boss? The role of affective reactions to leadership succession

Affective reactions to the departure of work group leaders are proposed as an important determinant of members' trust-related judgments regarding new leaders. A field test of veterinary hospital employees evaluating new leaders revealed that the affective reaction to the departure of the prior group leader predicted trust when there was no history between the individuals. When there was history between the two individuals, the group member's evaluation of the new leader's ability on their prior job was a significant predictor of trust over and above their affective reaction to the succession. The relationships between affective reactions to succession and trust formation were replicated in a longitudinal simulation of trust formation in student groups. The implications of these findings for the study of trust in organizations and leadership succession processes in work groups are discussed.     

Peer Group Acceptance and Academic Performance Among Adolescents Participating in a Dropout Prevention Program

This investigation examines the relationship between peer group acceptance and academic performance among adolescents participating in a dropout prevention program. Three variables assessing school-related attitudes and behavior are identified as potential links between peer group acceptance and academic performance and the results are examined in the context of the gender and racial/ethnic group identification of adolescent respondents. Peer group acceptance is found to have an indirect rather than a direct influence on academic achievement. The behavior variable, avoidance of problem behavior, provides the strongest path of connection between peer group acceptance and academic performance. Implications of the findings for social work practice in the school setting are discussed.     

Adventure as Character Work: The Collective Taming of Fear

It is ultimately through experience that character is formulated and made evident. From an ethnographic examination of an adventure program (Ropes Adventure, Inc.) that attempts to mold the identity of adolescents who have been detained for minor felonies and misdemeanors, we examine how personal challenge can be channeled into moral messages. By evoking and then taming fear (adventure), organizations demonstrate the power of personal accomplishment, trust, and cooperation—each socially legitimated moral virtues. We argue that character building efforts may be hampered when organizational aims and actual implementation of structured adventure collide.     

Development and Consideration of Global Policies for Managing the Future Risks of Poliovirus Outbreaks: Insights and Lessons Learned Through Modeling

The success of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative promises to bring large benefits, including sustained improvements in quality of life (i.e., cases of paralytic disease and deaths avoided) and costs saved from cessation of vaccination. Obtaining and maintaining these benefits requires that policymakers manage the transition from the current massive use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to a world without OPV and free of the risks of potential future reintroductions of live polioviruses. This article describes the analytical journey that began in 2001 with a retrospective case study on polio risk management and led to development of dynamic integrated risk, economic, and decision analysis tools to inform global policies for managing the risks of polio. This analytical journey has provided several key insights and lessons learned that will be useful to future analysts involved in similar complex decision-making processes.