Examining Psychometrics and Polarization in a Single-Risk Case Study

This project incorporates two steps. First, the psychometric model of risk perception is evaluated for its validity under field conditions. Second, individuals are classified as risk amplifiers or attenuators and the characteristics of those groups are explored. Survey data from an ongoing case study is employed in the analysis. The case study involves a Midwestern community in which a controversy exists over the possibility of the existence of a cancer cluster caused by the operation of a small reactor. Results show that the psychometric model of risk perception, while failing to be reproduced precisely, does has utility under the field conditions in this study. Use of the psychometric model to classify individuals as risk amplifiers or risk attenuators produces a useful dichotomy that reveals differences between the two polar groups in terms of demographics, satisfaction with institutional response to the risk, concern over individual and social levels of risk, and the evaluation of various communication channels as having been useful in coming to a judgment about the risk. A final model comparing the two groups suggests that, in this case, evaluation of personal risk and satisfaction with institutional response are important determinants of individual's risk reactions. Subordinate to these forces are the demographic variables of education, gender, and years of residence in the community. The model also illustrates that aggregate-level observations may not be representative of subgroups.     

Relationship between news media coverage of medical research and academic medical centers and people volunteering for clinical trials

In academic medical centers an untested assumption is that positive media attention aids recruitment of patients into a medical study while negative news reporting is damaging. In this study we examine associations between the amount of newspaper coverage concerning medical research and the number of people who volunteer, and the positive or negative content of the reporting. We find evidence that a positive relationship, though not statistically significant, exists between the volume of media coverage and volunteerism; a positive relationship exists between positive media coverage and volunteerism; and no existence of an inverse relationship between negative news coverage and volunteerism. These results lay a foundation for more in-depth exploration into the role news media play in this type of volunteerism.     

Transaction Costs and Coalition Stability under Majority Rule

Government program allocations are more stable and more equally shared than theory predicts. Although various explanations have been offered, we emphasize the high transaction costs of political negotiations and coalition enforcement. Cycling predictions ignore the cost to politicians of repeatedly forming coalitions and neglect the opportunity costs of failed coalitions and the loss of related government programs that bring valuable constituent benefits. Because of these costs, Congress relies on coalitions larger than the minimum necessary to enact a program, adopts relatively egalitarian programmatic sharing rules, and resists efforts to change those allocations. To illustrate we analyze the Federal Highway Trust Fund.     

Defining and Estimating Risk and Protection: An Illustration from the School Success Profile

This article links a risk and protection conceptual framework with definitions of risk and protection from epidemiology. It describes methods for estimating and modeling risk and protection that yield readily interpretable results using contingency tables and logistic regression. Data from a national sample of adolescents illustrate key concepts, providing implications for research and practice.     

LET'S TALK: HOW COMMUNICATION AFFECTS CONTRACT DESIGN

We study experimentally how communication changes the effectiveness of contract types when sellers choose unenforceable quality after a possible cost shock. Communication potentially removes conflicting perceptions that may otherwise plague flexible contracts. Indeed, we find that introducing free‐form communication sharply reverses an advantage of rigid contracts in favor of flexible contracts, which then deliver much higher earnings. Control treatments that avoid selection effects reveal a strong parallel shift from rigid to flexible. Chat content analysis identifies clarification of post‐shock transfers, promises, and personal rapport as key correlates of high earnings, with clarification working only in conjunction with flexible contracts. A communication channel restricted to clarifying transfer plans also favors use of flexible contracts, but mildly compared to chat. (JEL: C91, D03, D86)     

A Methodology for Integrating Tsunami Inundation Modelling into Land Use Planning in New Zealand

Guidance has been produced for land use planners and decision-makers on how tsunami inundation modelling can be included into land use planning. The process of developing the guideline included exploring the difficulties in integrating physical science models into land use planning with a focus on tsunami. These difficulties included addressing uncertainty and reconciling planners' needs with the capability of the modellers. The guidance was based on two key questions. (1) How can tsunami modelling be incorporated into land use planning? (2) What information do planners need from modellers to improve planning and policy for tsunami? The purpose of this paper is to provide a brief overview of the guideline, with the aim of assisting others in producing similar guidance for implementing tsunami modelling into land use planning. The guideline includes tsunami basics, a decision tree for including tsunami risk into land use planning, which forms the basis of the guideline.     

Experience of Forced Sex and Subsequent Sexual,Drug, and Mental Health Outcomes: African American and Hispanic Women in the Southeastern United States

ABSTRACT. Objectives: This cross-sectional study examined African American and Hispanic women's (N = 1,509) self-reports of unwanted forced sex and its association with behavioral and mental health outcomes after the event. Methods: Twenty percent of the women had experienced forced sex (1st occurrence at age 15 years or younger for 10%, 1st occurrence at older than 15 years of age for 10%). Results: Regardless of when forced sex 1st occurred, women were more likely to have engaged in unprotected vaginal and anal sex, to have had multiple unprotected sex partners, to have sexually transmitted infections, to have reported binge drinking and illicit drug use, and to exhibit distress and have received mental health counseling. Conclusions: Forced sex may have wide-ranging behavioral and mental health consequences years later.