Measurement error, skewness, and risk analysis: coping with the long tail of the distribution.

Probabilistic risk analyses often construct multistage chance trees to estimate the joint probability of compound events. If random measurement error is associated with some or all of the estimates, we show that resulting estimates of joint probability may be highly skewed. Joint probability estimates based on the analysis of multistage chance trees are more likely than not to be below the true probability of adverse events, but will sometimes substantially overestimate them. In contexts such as insurance markets for environmental risks, skewed distributions of risk estimates amplify the "winner's curse" so that the estimated risk premium for low-probability events is likely to be lower than the normative value. Skewness may result even in unbiased estimators of expected value from simple lotteries, if measurement error is associated with both the probability and pay-off terms. Further, skewness may occur even if the error associated with these two estimates is symmetrically distributed. Under certain circumstances, skewed estimates of expected value may result in risk-neutral decisionmakers exhibiting a tendency to choose a certainty equivalent over a lottery of equal expected value, or vice versa. We show that when distributions of estimates of expected value are, positively skewed, under certain circumstances it will be optimal to choose lotteries with nominal values lower than the value of apparently superior certainty equivalents. Extending the previous work of Goodman (1960), we provide an exact formula for the skewness of products.     

Engaging Intercollegiate Athletes in Preventing and Intervening in Sexual and Intimate Partner Violence

Abstract

Objective: The object of this exploratory evaluation was to evaluate the “Bringing in the Bystander” sexual and intimate partner violence prevention program with a new sample of intercollegiate athletes. Participants and Methods: Fifty-three male and female athletes participated in the program (experimental group), and 86 were in the control group. All completed pretest, posttest, and 2-month follow-up surveys, including assessment of rape myth acceptance, intent to engage in bystander behaviors, bystander confidence, and bystander behaviors. Results: The program worked overall and for both women and men, improved bystander confidence and intent to engage in bystander behaviors, and did not create significant backlash effects (ie, worsening of attitudes as a result of program). Conclusions: The program fits with the intent of the National Collegiate Athletic Association CHAMPS/Life Skills program regarding its focus on the overall development of student-athletes and demonstrates the promising bystander approach compatible with the 2007 American College Health Association toolkit, Shifting the Paradigm: Primary Prevention of Sexual Violence.     

Aging with HIV: Historical and Intra-Community Differences in Experience of Aging with HIV

Gay men living with HIV/AIDS face a complex of health issues, including those associated with the aging process, long-term HIV infection (25 years or more), and side effects from Highly Active Anti-Retroviral Therapy (HAART). If aging can increase marginalization, this is more likely for the aging HIV positive gay man, who is already marginalized for being queer and living with a stigmatizing disease. This article presents findings from a study of a long-running HIV support group. It locates the members, all gay men living with HIV, in a specific historical and political context to explore how feelings of loss and the struggle to sustain community affect long-term survivors and other older HIV+ gay men. We identify specific challenges presented by aging for men who contracted HIV early in the epidemic, contrasting them with those faced by men infected with the virus later in life. While both groups appear to struggle with a vision of what life could have been, had AIDS not forced loss and change, they also celebrate the community their shared plight has enabled.     

Binge Drinking Among Undergraduate College Students in the United States: Implications for Other Substance Use

Abstract

The authors examined the relationship between binge drinking and other substance use among US college students, using nationally representative data from the 1995 National College Health Risk Behavior Survey implemented by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Compared with nonbinge drinkers, current binge drinkers were significantly more likely to report “ever” using and current use of cigarettes, marijuana, cocaine, and other illegal drugs. The researchers also found that the more often students binge drank, the more likely they were to have ever used cigarettes, marijuana, cocaine, and other drugs, and the more likely they were to report current use of cigarettes and marijuana. Those who design programs to prevent binge drinking and use of other substances should take into account the reality that many students use more than one substance and that the more frequently students report binge drinking, the more likely they are to be using other substances as well.     

GAMES AND TRUTHS: Learning To Construct Social Problems In High School Debate

Although social constructionists have taken the process by which people learn to present social problems for granted, these skills are acquired in the course of socialization. Through high school debate, adolescents acquire techniques for making arguments, using evidence, and presenting claims to multiple audiences. In the process, they learn that taking a public position does not necessarily require a deeply held commitment. This model resonates with the institutional structure of politics and law in the United States in which adversaries battle each other in a rule-governed "game,'a contest ultimately evaluated by judges assumed to be impartial. To understand the process by which adolescents gain the skills to construct social problems, I conducted an ethnographic study of debate teams at two high schools. The ability to take both sides of an argument, express ideas with which one does not personally agree, and present powerful, if questionable, evidence, constrained by time, teaches teenagers how to engage in social problem discourse and provides a training ground for moral entrepreneurs.     

Drinking Game Participation Among Undergraduate Students Attending National Alcohol Screening Day

Abstract

Objectives, Participants, Methods: Drinking game participation has increased in popularity among college students and is associated with increased alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems. The current study investigated drinking game participation among 133 undergraduates attending National Alcohol Screening Day (NASD) in April of 2007. Results: A large percentage of the sample reported lifetime (77%) and recent (52%) drinking game participation. Males were more likely to report recent participation and reported higher levels of consumption while playing drinking games. Drinking game participants were more likely to experience a range of alcohol-related problems, and the relationship between drinking game participation and alcohol-related problems was mediated by weekly alcohol consumption. Conclusions: These results suggest that drinking game participation is a risk factor for elevated levels of alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems. Programs should be developed to educate students about the risks of drinking game participation, and prevention programs like NASD should address drinking games.     

Student Drinking-Related Problems in an Urban Campus: Implications for Research and Prevention

Abstract

Objective: Researchers who study the etiology of college drinking typically employ measures of alcohol-use behaviors as outcomes; however, relatively little is known about the properties of alcohol-related problems (AP). This study aims to develop a single continuous measure of AP. Participants: The sample included 531 undergraduate college students who were surveyed in March 2007. Methods: The Rasch model was employed for dichotomous variables to analyze the measurement properties of 17 AP items. Results: Although issues with respect to differentiation at low levels of problem severity were identified, based on most strategies, the Rasch-based scale was shown to be a valid and reliable measure of AP among college students. Conclusions: Although there may be some need for slight modification and adjustment in the future, the AP scale developed here can potentially serve as a useful measure for etiological and prevention research.     

The Neurosequential Model of Therapeutics: An Interview with Bruce Perry

In this interview with Bruce Perry, MD, PhD, Senior Fellow of The Child Trauma Academy, Laurie MacKinnon discusses with Dr Perry developmental trauma and the Neurosequential Model of Therapeutics, an approach to clinical problem solving that utilises a developmental lens and incorporates advances in neurobiological development. Dr Perry gives his perspective on the causal connection between childhood abuse and later psychiatric diagnosis, the child's contact with a violent parent post‐separation, the importance of interventions that address the organisation and functioning of lower parts of the brain and his perspective on the use and limitations of psychotropic medications, cognitive behaviour therapy and family therapy.     

Deterrence, expected cost, uncertainty and voting: Experimental evidence

We conduct laboratory experiments to investigate the effects of deterrence mechanisms under controlled conditions. The effect of the expected cost of punishment of an individual’s decision to engage in a proscribed activity and the effect of uncertainty on an individual’s decision to commit a violation are very difficult to isolate in field data. We use a roadway speeding framing and find that (a) individuals respond considerably to increases in the expected cost of speeding, (b) uncertainty about the enforcement regime yields a significant reduction in violations committed, and (c) people are much more likely to speed when the punishment regime for which they voted is implemented. Our results have important implications for a behavioral theory of deterrence under uncertainty.