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81.
Cross‐Milieu Terrorist Collaboration: Using Game Theory to Assess the Risk of a Novel Threat 下载免费PDF全文
This article uses a game‐theoretic approach to analyze the risk of cross‐milieu terrorist collaboration—the possibility that, despite marked ideological differences, extremist groups from very different milieus might align to a degree where operational collaboration against Western societies becomes possible. Based upon theoretical insights drawn from a variety of literatures, a bargaining model is constructed that reflects the various benefits and costs for terrorists’ collaboration across ideological milieus. Analyzed in both sequential and simultaneous decision‐making contexts and through numerical simulations, the model confirms several theoretical arguments. The most important of these is that although likely to be quite rare, successful collaboration across terrorist milieus is indeed feasible in certain circumstances. The model also highlights several structural elements that might play a larger role than previously recognized in the collaboration decision, including that the prospect of nonmaterial gains (amplification of terror and reputational boost) plays at least as important a role in the decision to collaborate as potential increased capabilities does. Numerical simulation further suggests that prospects for successful collaboration over most scenarios (including operational) increase when a large, effective Islamist terrorist organization initiates collaboration with a smaller right‐wing group, as compared with the other scenarios considered. Although the small number of historical cases precludes robust statistical validation, the simulation results are supported by existing empirical evidence of collaboration between Islamists and right‐ or left‐wing extremists. The game‐theoretic approach, therefore, provides guidance regarding the circumstances under which such an unholy alliance of violent actors is likely to succeed. 相似文献
82.
Gary L. Bowen 《Journal of Family and Economic Issues》1998,19(1):25-52
This study examines the direct versus the buffering effect of leader support in the work unit on the relationship between work spillover and family adaptation. The analyses use data from a probability sample of 3,190 married soldiers in the U.S. Army who participated in the 1989 Army and Family Survey, and the data are analyzed by the gender of the respondent. Two types of work spillover are examined in the analysis (energy and time interference), and both internal and external types of family adaptation are hypothesized and supported by the empirical analysis. Only modest support is found for the buffering effect hypothesis. In support of the direct effect hypothesis, the findings indicate that leader support in the work unit decreases perceptions of work spillover, which is a preventive effect, and enhances perceptions of external adaptation, which is a therapeutic effect. 相似文献
83.
84.
Beyond Hammurabi: A Public Service Definition of Ethics Failure 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
85.
We provide a brief overview of the American Sociological Association’s Ph.D. Certification Program and question the need for,
and justification of, certifying sociologists. Essentially, the ASA certification mechanism, as implemented, is nonsociological,
emphasizing presumed defects in the individual to the neglect of wider, systemic forces impinging on our discipline. If certification
of sociologists is warranted, a view difficult to support given the small number of applicants for certification since 1986,
we suggest departmental accreditation—a more sociological approach that emphasizes the value of the discipline, in and of
itself.
His research interests include political sociology, stratification and contemporary issues affecting the discipline.
His research foci include rural and agricultural issues and the sociological employment market and profession. 相似文献
86.
87.
Graduate training in sociology involves more than meeting organizationally imposed demands such as satisfying departmental
requirements, taking exams, and completing a dissertation. More central is the development of identity through institutional
and interactional forces. We examine the experience of graduate students as tied to the social psychological processes associated
with professional training. We consider the faculty-student relationship, identifying how student identities as future sociologists
are negotiated and constructed within a reputation market linked to status politics. Through this process, graduate students
construct frames of interpretation that make sense of a status system in which criteria for evaluation are often variable,
uncertain, or undisclosed. To recognize how graduate students fit into their occupational routines, we build upon three core
disciplinary constructs: identity, reputation, and group culture. This perspective permits graduate education to be grounded
in sociological understandings, underlining the role of a sociological imagination. We propose strategies that sociology departments
might follow to facilitate the professional socialization of graduate students, emphasizing the establishment of group culture
and presentational norms. In the absence of these changes, we offer advice to graduate students on navigating their current
programs. 相似文献
88.
Gary Alan Fine 《Symbolic Interaction》2007,30(1):27-39
Whether two events “belong together,” cognitively and in terms of collective memory, requires that we develop classification strategies. Historical equivalence refers to the perception that two events, separate in space and time, belong to the same cognitive category, or speak to the same issues. They are “good to think together.” Rejecting a radical constructionism that suggests that everything is a matter of ontological preference, I argue, following Gubrium (1993) , that interactionists should prefer a cautious naturalism. While interests and resources affect the presentation of historical claims, an obdurate reality permits the evaluation of empirical claims of comparability. To determine historical equivalence, we need to examine events in light of their magnitude, metaphorical continuity, analogous causation, and comparative effects. To examine the construction of historical equivalence, I discuss the similarities and differences between the Red Scares of 1919 and the late 1940s and the Brown Scare of the early 1940s. What you choose as an historical analogy begins and ends the conversation. —Elazar Barkan, “On Accepting Historical Responsibility: Refugees and the Right of Return” (2004) 相似文献
89.
90.
Gary L. Ginsberg 《Risk analysis》2003,23(1):19-34
For the vast majority of chemicals that have cancer potency estimates on IRIS, the underlying database is deficient with respect to early-life exposures. This data gap has prevented derivation of cancer potency factors that are relevant to this time period, and so assessments may not fully address children's risks. This article provides a review of juvenile animal bioassay data in comparison to adult animal data for a broad array of carcinogens. This comparison indicates that short-term exposures in early life are likely to yield a greater tumor response than short-term exposures in adults, but similar tumor response when compared to long-term exposures in adults. This evidence is brought into a risk assessment context by proposing an approach that: (1) does not prorate children's exposures over the entire life span or mix them with exposures that occur at other ages; (2) applies the cancer slope factor from adult animal or human epidemiology studies to the children's exposure dose to calculate the cancer risk associated with the early-life period; and (3) adds the cancer risk for young children to that for older children/adults to yield a total lifetime cancer risk. The proposed approach allows for the unique exposure and pharmacokinetic factors associated with young children to be fully weighted in the cancer risk assessment. It is very similar to the approach currently used by U.S. EPA for vinyl chloride. The current analysis finds that the database of early life and adult cancer bioassays supports extension of this approach from vinyl chloride to other carcinogens of diverse mode of action. This approach should be enhanced by early-life data specific to the particular carcinogen under analysis whenever possible. 相似文献