A note on sequential ML estimates and their asymptotic covariances

A marginal and sequential maximum likelihood estimation method is described which can be used instead of full information maximum likelihood estimation if the latter method is unfeasible. It is shown that the sequential procedure yields strongly consistent and asymptotically normal estimates under relatively general regularity conditions. It is shown that the covariance matrix of the sequential ML estimator does not coincide with the inverse of the Fisher information matrix. Hence, the corrected covariance matrix is derived. The application of the sequential procedure to the multivariate probit model with dichotomous, ordered categorical, single-sided censored and double-sided censored endogenous variables is included. This research was partially supported by a dissertation grant of theStudienstiftung des Deutschen Volkes. Comments and suggestions on earlier drafts by Gerhard Arminger, Giorgio Calzolari, Bernd Kortzen and an anonymous referee are gratefully acknowledged.     

Das Weltsystem des Erdöls

This is an attempt at formulating, on a theoretical and empirical basis, construction principles and patterns of change of the “world economy of oil”. This term refers to a loose and variable configuration of nation states, multinational corporations, the “Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries” (OPEC) and a set of market regulations related to the production, distribution and consumption of oil on a worldwide scale. The main argument links together four interrelated and partially overlapping functional processes: (1) capitalism as a profit-oriented, innovative and expansive economic principle; (2) incorporation of the external oil deposits by the governments and corporations of the central industrial nations; (3) the emergence of countervailing power within the peripheral, oil-exporting countries in order to gain control over their oil resources and to change the unequal exchange relations with the capitalist centers; (4) change of the integration mode of the “world-economy of oil” based on a new balance of interests between centers and peripheries following severe economical and political crises. The analysis is concluded with a functional-cyclical model of the world economy of oil.     

Discussion on On the role of data,statistics and decisions in a pandemic

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - The authors make an important contribution presenting a comprehensive and thoughtful overview about the many different aspects of data, statistics and data...     

Compliance and Non-Compliance with a Superordinate Directive Document

We report a study of how a Norwegian regional health care agency directive document was complied with at the subordinate hospital level. We found tight coupling for the activity and budget requirements and loose coupling and decoupling for the other requirements in the document. Furthermore, rather than pursuing their own self- and group interests the hospital actors held an overall effectiveness logic.     

纯粹的卡里斯玛及其传导性:当代康区及果洛地区藏传佛教转世喇嘛的心景

本文旨在对当代康区及果洛地区藏传佛教在复兴背景下纯粹的卡里斯玛(genuine charisma)现象进行一种社会学的研讨,其关注的焦点是当代我国境内藏传佛教的转世喇嘛的内质及其集体功能.在理论层面上,这篇文章质疑了马克斯·韦伯(Max Weber)的观点,他仅将卡里斯玛看作个人人格魅力,并且认为它经历着一个日常化(routinization)及最终消亡(denuse)的过程.作者基于对藏族深具魅力的转世喇嘛及其与寺院制度共生关系的认识,提出了在藏文化情境中,纯粹的卡里斯玛不仅是以个体人格为中心的现象,更关键的,它还是古老宗教体系集体性的表现.这类佛教里的纯粹卡里斯玛,不仅其再生得到了藏传佛教寺院制度的支撑,甚至还可以在希望获得它的人们身上传导.     

Realisierung von Cross-Selling Potenzialen durch das Management von kundeninitiierten Kontakten

Existing research has not sufficiently addressed the question of how to cross-sell additional products and services to customers and what the behavioral consequences of cross-selling are. Moreover, these cross-selling-related questions have not been investigated in the context of customer-initiated contacts.The contribution of the paper is the empirical analysis of metrics which can be used to predict cross-selling success, e.g., in a call-center. The results show that two metrics, namely first contact resolution and reason for contact, significantly predict cross-selling success. Another contribution is the analysis of behavioral consequences. Here the results show that usage intensity significantly increases the time directly after the cross-selling took place but relapses to the original level within a few weeks.The results of the study can be used to derive managerial implications for managing and controlling cross-selling initiatives and for increasing and stabilizing cash-flows.     

Evidence maps: communicating risk assessments in societal controversies: the case of engineered nanoparticles

The transparent and fair characterization of scientific evidence for reporting the results of a hazard assessment is a demanding task. In this article, we present an approach for characterizing evidence--the evidence map approach. The theoretical starting point is to view evidence characterization as a form of argumentation. Thus, evidence maps are designed to depict the evidence base, the pro and con arguments, and the remaining uncertainties, which together lead experts to their conclusions when summarizing and evaluating the scientific evidence about a potential hazard. To illustrate its use, the evidence maps approach is applied to characterizing the health-relevant effects of engineered nanoparticles. Empirical data from an online survey suggests that the use of evidence maps improves the reporting of hazard assessments. Nonexperts prefer to receive the information included in an evidence map in order to come to an informed judgment. Furthermore, the benefits and limitations of evidence maps are discussed in the light of recent literature on risk communication. Finally, the article underlines the need for further research in order to increase quality of evidence reporting.     

Synergistic effect of social support and self-efficacy on physical exercise in older adults

The purpose of the current study was to examine whether the effects of social support on physical exercise in older adults depend on individual perceptions of self-efficacy. Three hundred nine older German adults (age 65-85) were assessed at 3 points in time (3 months apart). In hierarchical-regression analyses, support received from friends and exercise self-efficacy were specified as predictors of exercise frequency while baseline exercise, sex, age, and physical functioning were controlled for. Besides main effects of self-efficacy and social support, an interaction between social support and self-efficacy emerged. People with low self-efficacy were less likely to be active in spite of having social support. People with low support were less likely to be active even if they were high in self-efficacy. This points to the importance of both social support and self-efficacy and implies that these resources could be targets of interventions to increase older adults' exercise.     

Comparison as Incentive: Newsvendor Decisions in a Social Context

Explicit formal mechanisms dominate the discussion about incentives in Operations Management, yet many other mechanisms exist. Social comparison between peers may provide strong implicit incentives for individuals. Social comparison arises naturally in all social settings and may thus be unintended; however, many companies deliberately use it to motivate employees. In this study, we model a social context in which purchasers evaluate their performance relative to their peers; a feeling of inferiority results in a negative contribution to utility, whereas a feeling of superiority results in a positive contribution. We find that social comparison induces characteristic deviations from the newsvendor optimum ordering decision: if fear of inferiority outweighs anticipation of superiority, then purchasers herd together; the converse scenario incites actors to polarize away from each other. In both cases, actors will deviate from ordering the newsvendor optimum in order to satisfy social goals. Demand correlation and profit margins moderate the extent of the deviation.     

Empowerment von chirurgischen PatientInnen — Modelle, Interventionen, Effekte, Erfolgsbedingungen

Empowerment of patients is an important strategy in Health Promotion. Recent discussions within this context stress the relevance of the improvement of health literacy and health behaviour of patients for the improvement of health status. Communication between patients and professionals is emphasised as a main tool and quality factor. In the framework of a model project subsidised by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Social Security and Generations three Austrian Hospitals implemented and evaluated interventions to improve the quality of communication between hospital staff and patients for the improvement of patient information and co-production of health in the care process. Effects of interventions were evaluated in a before-and-after study (baseline n = 257 patients: 113 general surgery, 100 cardiac surgery, 44 thorax surgery; evaluation n = 208 patients: 63 general surgery, 99 cardiac surgery, 46 thorax surgery) with data from a patient questionnaire (satisfaction with care and communication, self reported health status) and documentation of post-surgical health outcome (complications, length of stay in hospital) and by measuring self reported improvement of health literacy and health behaviour of patients after the intervention. Results show that improvement of communication has effects on patient satisfaction as well as on postsurgical health outcome. Especially in cardiac surgery, where communication with patients was improved by interventions covering the whole inpatient care process from admission to discharge, a considerable increase of patient satisfaction and a decrease of postsurgical complications can be reported.