Screening for prostate cancer by using random-effects models

Summary. Random-effects models are used to screen male participants in a long-term longitudinal study for prostate cancer. By using posterior probabilities, each male can be classified into one of four diagnostic states for prostate disease: normal, benign prostatic hyperplasia, local cancer and metastatic cancer. Repeated measurements of prostate-specific antigen, collected when there was no clinical evidence of prostate disease, are used in the classification process. An individual's screening data are considered one repeated measurement at a time as his data are collected longitudinally over time. Posterior probabilities are calculated on the basis of data from other individuals with confirmed diagnoses of each of the four diagnostic states.     

Odorous childhoods and scented worlds of learning: a sensory history of health and outdoor education initiatives in Western Europe (1900s-1960s)

ABSTRACT

This paper develops a sensory history of health and outdoor education initiatives which featured (non-)formal schooling, analyzing these as belonging to (a) scented and more generally sensed world(s) of learning. Working with photographs as sensory objects of affect, and using as examples Belgian and Luxembourg open-air schools and associated sanitary and social welfare provisions, the paper explores issues that have gone under-researched in sensory scholarship internationally: those of precise educational purposes, methods, processes and effects of sensory engagement, particularly pertaining to “smell”. Sensory practices and experiences and uses of senses generally are thereby traced in/as “situated, embodied” movements inextricably “enmeshed” with symbolism. The paper argues that while the educational goals underpinning the initiatives investigated and the approaches and practices characterizing these have changed, some (un)intended effects still have an impact today, for instance through Forest School as given shape in the United Kingdom. The concept of “odorous”, or rather “sensuous childhoods”, is proposed to denote ways that particular target groups have come to be imagined as in need of explicitly sensorial health and outdoor education.     

On the Bivariate Kummer-Beta Type IV Distribution

Recent studies have shown the X-bar control chart with variable sampling interval detects shifts in the process mean faster than the traditional X-bar chart. These studies are usually based on the assumption that the process data are independently and normally distributed. However, many situations in practice violate these assumptions. In this study, a methodology is developed to economically design a variable sampling interval X-bar control chart that takes into consideration correlated non normal sample data. An example is provided to illustrate the solution procedure. A sensitivity analysis on the input parameters (i.e., the cost and the process parameters) is performed taking into account the non normality and the correlation on the optimal design of the chart.     

Implementing Consumer Choice in Long‐term Care: The Impact of Individual Budgets on Social Care Providers in England

In common with many advanced welfare states, England has increasingly relied on consumerist principles to deliver both greater quality and improved efficiency in the long‐term care system. The Individual Budget (IB) pilots marked the next step in this process, through a new system of funding whereby greater control of resources is given to service users, in lieu of direct in‐kind care provision. IBs have the potential to transform the market for care services as well as the relationships between key stakeholders within it. Purchasing will increasingly be shaped by the demands of IB holders, with providers expected to deliver a wider range of personalized services. What will this mean for providers, and what can they do to prepare for these changes? These questions are relevant not just in England but in many other countries adopting similar mechanisms for devolving control over the design, delivery and funding of care to the end‐user. The article explores the early impact of IBs on providers' services, on their workforces, and on the administrative implications for providers of managing IBs. The study finds that providers were positive about the opportunities for better‐quality services that IBs can bring about. However, participants highlighted a number of obstacles to their effectiveness, and reported a range of potentially adverse administrative and workforce consequences which have the potential to jeopardize the consumerist policy objectives of increased choice and efficiency.     

Fat tail distributions and local thin tail alternatives

The behaviour of the Hill estimator for the tail index of fat tailed distributions in the presence of local alternatives which have a thin tail is investigated. The converse problem is also briefly addressed. A local thin tail alternative can severely bias the Hill statistic. The relevance of this issue for the class of stable distributions is discussed. We conduct a small simulation study to support the analysis. In the conclusion it is argued that for moderate out of sample quantile analysis the problem of local alternatives may be less pressing.     

Fast,closed-form,and efficient estimators for hierarchical models with AR(1) covariance and unequal cluster sizes

This article is concerned with statistically and computationally efficient estimation in a hierarchical data setting with unequal cluster sizes and an AR(1) covariance structure. Maximum likelihood estimation for AR(1) requires numerical iteration when cluster sizes are unequal. A near optimal non-iterative procedure is proposed. Pseudo-likelihood and split-sample methods are used, resulting in computing weights to combine cluster size specific parameter estimates. Results show that the method is statistically nearly as efficient as maximum likelihood, but shows great savings in computation time.