Your lying,incompetent and selfish member of Congress: Cynical appeals in U.S. Senate advertising

Scholars still do not fully understand what activates cynicism in citizens. Although many expect that negative campaigning contributes to this, no consistent evidence has been found. This research introduces a new measure of appeals to cynicism that expands the commonly used positive–negative taxonomy of tone in advertising. Through a content analyses of more than 600 political advertisements aired during U.S. Senate elections, we identify the extent to which candidates use cynical appeals and the conditions under which these are used. We find that appeals to cynicism are common, are distinct from negative appeals, and that most often, ad sponsors target opponents with cynical appeals, describing them as selfish, dishonest and incompetent. Cynicism appears to be a central part of American campaign rhetoric, used by all sorts of candidates, regardless of party, in many different situations. The prevalence of appeals to cynicism may help explain rising cynicism among the public.     

The demographic characteristics of populations living near oil and gas wells in the USA

Population and Environment - This study documents the prevalence of historically marginalized populations (across age, income, education, race-ethnicity, and language) living near active oil and...     

Humility,Forgiveness, and Emerging Adult Female Romantic Relationships

Among a sample of emerging adult females (N = 152) we empirically examined the role of humility and forgiveness in romantic relationships. We specifically tested a model linking perceived humility to relationship satisfaction with self‐forgiveness and partner‐forgiveness. Participants in a romantic relationship completed measures of self‐reported humility, self‐forgiveness, partner‐forgiveness, and relationship satisfaction. Serial mediation analyses were conducted using path analysis to test the following sequence, humility self‐forgiveness partner‐forgiveness relationship satisfaction. Findings indicate that humility was related to relationship satisfaction via a serially mediated path of self‐forgiveness and partner‐forgiveness, which was not reducible to impression management. We consider implications for research and clinical practice.     

Stressful Life Events and Physical and Psychological Health: Mediating Effects of Differentiation of Self in a Spanish Sample

The pathways between differentiation of self and health remain only partly elucidated. This cross‐cultural study sought to test Bowen's hypothesis about the associations between differentiation, stressful life events, and physical and psychological health, in a sample of 466 Spanish adults. Results show that people with higher levels of differentiation were less prone to physical ailments (e.g., heart disease, cancer, or blood disorders) and psychological symptoms (e.g., depression or anxiety). Further, differentiation mediated the association between stress (i.e., perceived negativity of stress in the past year and number of stressful events across the lifetime) and physical and psychological health. The current research provides cross‐cultural empirical evidence for the links between differentiation and mind and body health in a Mediterranean culture.     

A population sample registry for public health survey investigations: methods,lessons, and successes

Public health relies on sample surveys to monitor the health of populations and investigate factors that contribute to population health and illness. Such investigations require surveying individuals who are selected in ways that support statistical inference to the population. Faced with rising costs and declining participation, survey researchers are exploring economical ways to recruit samples that validly represent larger populations. The current report describes an innovative resource, the Colorado Adult Population Sample–Survey Research Registry, which maintains survey access to respondents from a probability-based state health survey. We describe recruitment and retention strategies, explore representativeness, report several studies that used the registry, and discuss future directions.     

Strong convergence rates of probabilistic integrators for ordinary differential equations

Probabilistic integration of a continuous dynamical system is a way of systematically introducing discretisation error, at scales no larger than errors introduced by standard numerical discretisation, in order to enable thorough exploration of possible responses of the system to inputs. It is thus a potentially useful approach in a number of applications such as forward uncertainty quantification, inverse problems, and data assimilation. We extend the convergence analysis of probabilistic integrators for deterministic ordinary differential equations, as proposed by Conrad et al. (Stat Comput 27(4):1065–1082, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-016-9671-0), to establish mean-square convergence in the uniform norm on discrete- or continuous-time solutions under relaxed regularity assumptions on the driving vector fields and their induced flows. Specifically, we show that randomised high-order integrators for globally Lipschitz flows and randomised Euler integrators for dissipative vector fields with polynomially bounded local Lipschitz constants all have the same mean-square convergence rate as their deterministic counterparts, provided that the variance of the integration noise is not of higher order than the corresponding deterministic integrator. These and similar results are proven for probabilistic integrators where the random perturbations may be state-dependent, non-Gaussian, or non-centred random variables.

     

Self-exciting threshold models for time series of counts with a finite range

In this article, an integer-valued self-exciting threshold model with a finite range based on the binomial INARCH(1) model is proposed. Important stochastic properties are derived, and approaches for parameter estimation are discussed. A real-data example about the regional spread of public drunkenness in Pittsburgh demonstrates the applicability of the new model in comparison to existing models. Feasible modifications of the model are presented, which are designed to handle special features such as zero-inflation.     

Attention and Executive Functions as Mediators of Attachment and Behavior Problems

The purpose of this study was to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the relation between early parent‐child interactions and subsequent behavior problems and how certain cognitive processes mediate this relation. Specifically, this study investigated whether attention, inhibition, and planning skills mediate the relation between attachment security and behavior problems. Data were collected as part of the National Institute of Child Health and Development‐Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development when children (N = 1004) were between 36 months and the third grade. Results from structural equation models indicated that sustained attention mediated the relation between disorganized attachment and social problems. Planning mediated the relation between disorganized attachment and subsequent thought problems, attention problems, and delinquent behavior. Avoidant, ambivalent, and disorganized attachment directly predicted several behavior problems. Implications for theory and future research are discussed.