Tibetan Fertility Transitions in China and South Asia

The own‐children method, an indirect technique, is used to estimate fertility rates for two populations of Tibetans during the 1980s and 1990s: a sample of rural villages in the Tibet Autonomous Region of China and exiles living in India and Nepal. The analysis provides evidence that these two populations underwent remarkably similar fertility transitions in both timing and magnitude. In both cases total fertility rates declined from over six births per woman to below the level of replacement in a span of 15 years. The parallel nature of these fertility transitions is intriguing given that, although the populations share a common ethnic identity, they have lived under sharply differing political, economic, and social conditions since the 1960s.     

Representations of Central Asian Ethnicities in British Literature c. 1830-1914

This article evaluates representations of Central Asian ethnicities in British literature between 1830 and 1914. It commences by evaluating the ways in which representations of Central Asia were influenced by the Mongol campaigns in Europe of the thirteenth century and proceeds to examine the ways in which these changed during the debate over the 'Central Asian Question' in the second half of the nineteenth century. It argues that the way in which different ethnicities were depicted was contingent upon a number of factors. The first was the extent to which they were deemed to conform to 'Tartar features' (the greater the perceived resemblance, the more unfavourable the assessment). The second was geopolitical factors (the extent to which they were perceived as allies or enemies in the Anglo-Russian rivalry in Central Asia between 1830 and 1914). The third was social Darwinism, most notably the notion of 'degeneracy' articulated by proponents of eugenics.     

Reflections from the riot zone: The Fair Go Project and student engagement in a besieged community

This article describes and evaluates a pedagogical intervention aimed at improving student engagement in a very disadvantaged and low socio-economic status community in Australia. The intervention took place at a time of great community unrest and provides a contrast between wider public and media perceptions of poor communities and efforts at community renewal through education. A theoretical framework of student engagement developed in a research project into student engagement and students in poverty is introduced and then classroom changes that work within this framing are discussed. Finally, data showing results from the intervention are presented.     

Changing society's DNA codes: Democracy and the global movement for community progress measures

This paper examines some critical issues and opportunities for democracy and public policy posed by the growth of the global progress measurement movement. From the democratic perspective, these include: citizen progress measurement as a form of democratic re‐engagement; the re‐examination of democracy and the development of new indicators to define and measure a ‘healthy’ democracy; and the demonstration of clear linkages between healthy regimes, and broader individual and societal wellbeing. In public policy, the global movement challenges two long dominant assumptions: the primacy of continuous economic growth as the key driver of wellbeing; and the ‘inevitability of progress‘. In their place, it offers a more holistic, integrated and nuanced model that recognises the interdependence of economic, social, cultural, environmental and democratic dimensions for genuine wellbeing, progress and sustainability. The paper reviews work in Australia over the past decade at both local community and national levels as examples of these trends, including the development of citizen‐engaged community planning and neighbourhood renewal schemes in which progress and wellbeing indicators play a central role; the development of state‐wide local progress measurement frameworks as part of a commitment to devolved planning and stronger local democracy; and the evolution of national progress measurement systems. The paper concludes with a proposal for a broad community engaged National Development Index (NDI) for Australia.     

From ‘weak’ to ‘strong’ multifunctionality: Conceptualising farm-level multifunctional transitional pathways

Building on normative conceptualisations of multifunctionality as a decision-making spectrum bounded by productivist and non-productivist action and thought, this paper analyses farm-level multifunctional agricultural transitions. First, the paper suggests that it may be possible to categorise different farm types along the productivist/non-productivist multifunctionality spectrum, and that transitional potential from weak to strong multifunctionality often differs between different categories of farms and types of farm ownership. Second, the paper conceptualises multifunctional transitional processes at farm level over time, and introduces the notions of multifunctional path dependency and decision-making corridors, the latter of which can be understood as ‘bundles’ of decision-making opportunities bounded by productivist and non-productivist action and thought. The analysis suggests that system memory plays an important role in defining the likelihood of multifunctional actions, and argues that transitional ruptures—sudden breaks in transitional pathways—often characterise farm-level transitions. The paper concludes by highlighting the methodological challenges awaiting future researchers of multifunctional agricultural transitions.     

The embodiment of neoliberalism: exploring the roots and limits of the calculation of arbitrage in the entrepreneurial function

How has neoliberalism achieved its sway? We address this question by tracing an alternative history of the economic theorization of ‘entrepreneurship’ that reveals the extent to which sociological transformation is attendant upon the construction, dissemination and change of the concepts of economy. Surveying the theoretical works of luminaries such as Kirzner, Mises and Simmel and reading them alongside ethnographies of the practices that instantiate a neo‐liberal world we see the ways in which entrepreneurship is fashioned, realized and ramified and, in so doing, reveal new fault lines for exploitation by those who would rather seek to escape its pernicious embrace. For it is the notion of entrepreneurship that enables both the functioning of an apparently objective market to best deploy societal resources and the continuing capture of the benefits of such by a privileged elite who seemingly bear its mark in the most vivid of terms. By unpacking entrepreneurship we unpack the market, which is a vital first step in any attempt to trammel its seemingly inevitable and unstoppable march through an otherwise undefended social.     

Reducing Overconfidence in the Interval Judgments of Experts

Elicitation of expert opinion is important for risk analysis when only limited data are available. Expert opinion is often elicited in the form of subjective confidence intervals; however, these are prone to substantial overconfidence. We investigated the influence of elicitation question format, in particular the number of steps in the elicitation procedure. In a 3‐point elicitation procedure, an expert is asked for a lower limit, upper limit, and best guess, the two limits creating an interval of some assigned confidence level (e.g., 80%). In our 4‐step interval elicitation procedure, experts were also asked for a realistic lower limit, upper limit, and best guess, but no confidence level was assigned; the fourth step was to rate their anticipated confidence in the interval produced. In our three studies, experts made interval predictions of rates of infectious diseases (Study 1, n = 21 and Study 2, n = 24: epidemiologists and public health experts), or marine invertebrate populations (Study 3, n = 34: ecologists and biologists). We combined the results from our studies using meta‐analysis, which found average overconfidence of 11.9%, 95% CI [3.5, 20.3] (a hit rate of 68.1% for 80% intervals)—a substantial decrease in overconfidence compared with previous studies. Studies 2 and 3 suggest that the 4‐step procedure is more likely to reduce overconfidence than the 3‐point procedure (Cohen's d = 0.61, [0.04, 1.18]).