Testing Models of Low‐Frequency Variability

We develop a framework to assess how successfully standard time series models explain low‐frequency variability of a data series. The low‐frequency information is extracted by computing a finite number of weighted averages of the original data, where the weights are low‐frequency trigonometric series. The properties of these weighted averages are then compared to the asymptotic implications of a number of common time series models. We apply the framework to twenty U.S. macroeconomic and financial time series using frequencies lower than the business cycle.     

Social Class and Conversion Capacity: Deprivation Trends in the Great Recession in Ireland

In this paper, we draw on Irish SILC data to examine the roles of social class, non-class risk groups and state policies in influencing enforced material deprivation as Ireland moved from a period of economic boom through deep recession and on to early recovery. We also employ Sen’s capability approach to explore the extent to which certain social risk groups differ in their capacity to convert social class-differentiated resources into increased capability in relation to avoiding material deprivation. The findings refute the notion of polarization either across time as a result of recession or as a result of more vulnerable social risk groups experiencing more pronounced social class differences. Instead, the impact of recession on social class and social risk group operated mainly in an additive manner with each having a relatively independent impact on deprivation. The exception was lone parents who were less able to convert the benefits of higher social class position into reduced deprivation levels.     

The effects of demand,competitive, and technological uncertainty on board monitoring and institutional ownership of IPO firms

This paper considers industry-specific contingencies that may account for some of the inter-firm heterogeneity in the deployment of specific corporate governance mechanisms in IPO firms. We examine how differences in demand, competitive, and technological uncertainty in the industry influence the levels of IPO firm monitoring by board outsiders and institutional investors. We test our theory using a sample of U.S. firms that completed an IPO in 24 manufacturing industries. The results indicate that industry uncertainty is, indeed, significantly related to the use of corporate governance mechanisms. In particular, the empirical results indicate that industry effects on IPO firm board monitoring and institutional investor ownership are the strongest and most consistent for demand uncertainty and competitive uncertainty.

Disabled people in Britain and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper reports on in-depth qualitative interviews conducted with 69 disabled people in England and Scotland, and with 28 key informants from infrastructure organisations in the voluntary and statutory sectors, about the impact of COVID-19, and measures taken to control it. Participants were recruited through voluntary organisations. As with everyone, the Pandemic has had a huge impact: we discuss the dislocations it has caused in everyday life; the failures of social care; the use of new technologies; and participants' view on leadership and communication. We conclude with suggestions for urgent short term and medium term responses, so that the United Kingdom and other countries can respond better to this and other pandemics, and build a more inclusive world.     

Childhood Career Development in Mainland China: A Research and Practice Agenda

Career development in adolescence and adulthood has been widely researched; however, less is known about childhood career development, particularly in non‐Western cultures. This is especially the case in mainland China, where children grow up in a unique context. The Confucian tradition of emphasizing education as an important social ladder and parents' role in their children's development may restrict children's development of career‐planning skills. By contrast, the shift from a planned economy to a market economy enables individuals to choose careers and demands that individuals have career‐planning skills. The elementary school years could be a starting point to develop such skills by providing career guidance for children. This article considers childhood career development in mainland China, discusses the status quo of childhood career development research and practice, and considers an agenda for future research and practice.     

Sensitivity Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is fraught with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 billion dollars to 3 billion dollars in losses late on the 12th to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm struck the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor and moved across the densely populated central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates in the 28 dollars to 31 billion dollars range, and final estimates converging at 15 billion dollars as the actual intensity at landfall became apparent. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has a great appreciation for the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM contracts with a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a sophisticated computer model based on the Holland wind field. Sensitivity analyses presented in this article utilize standardized regression coefficients to quantify the contribution of the computer input variables to the magnitude of the wind speed.