Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.     

Programmed Strategic Decision Making: The View From Mintzberg's Window1

A class of decisions, asset mix decisions made by pension fund managers, which exhibit characteristics of both programmed and strategic choices is examined in this paper. The decisions are classified using the scheme developed by Mintzberg et al., (1976) to highlight the circumstances under which strategic decisions may be programmed. The types of strategic decisions which lend themselves to programming are considered. The advantages and disadvantages of programming strategic decisions are also discussed.     

SHORT REVIEWS

Books reviewed in this article: Adele E. Clarke , Disciplining Reproduction: Modernity, American Life Sciences, and “the Problems of Sex” Delia Davin , Internal Migration in Contemporary China Anton Kuijsten, Henk de Gans, and Henk de Feijter (eds.) The Joy of Demography… and Other Disciplines: Essays in Honour of Dirk van de Kaa William Petersen , Malthus: Founder of Modern Demography Eric B. Ross , The Malthus Factor: Population, Poverty and Politics in Capitalist Development Nicholas Van Hear , New Diasporas: The Mass Exodus, Dispersal and Regrouping of Migrant Communities Thomas M. Wilson and Hastings Donnan (eds.) , Border Identities: Nation and State at International Frontiers     

Age at first marriage in Malawi: a Bayesian multilevel analysis using a discrete time-to-event model

Summary.  The paper presents a hierarchical discrete time survival model for the analysis of the 2000 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey data to assess the determinants of transition to marriage among women in Malawi. The model explicitly accounts for the unobserved heterogeneity by using family and community random effects with cross-level correlation structure. A nonparametric technique is used to model the base-line discrete hazard dynamically. Parameters of the model are computed by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The results show that rising age at marriage is a combination of birth cohort and education effects, depends considerably on the family and to some extent on the community in which a woman resides and the correlation between family and community random effects is negative. These results confirm a downward trend in teenage marriage and that raising women's education levels in sub-Saharan Africa has the beneficial effect of increasing age at marriage, and by implication reducing total fertility rates. The negative correlation between family and community random effects has policy implications in that targeting communities with an intervention to increase age at first marriage may not necessarily yield reduced fertility levels in individual families. A campaign that is geared towards individual families would achieve the desired goals. Overall, the findings point to the need for the Government in Malawi to enact public policies which are geared at vastly improving women's education at higher levels. The variation in marriage rates over families poses problems in delivering the policy, since particular policies must be devised for specific groups of families to accomplish the required social and health objectives.     

Determinants of executive compensation in small business development centers

We develop and test a model of nonprofit executive compensation based on theories of organizational science, economics, and agency theory. Our sample consisted of 114 directors of small business development centers in the United States. Consistent with our model, we find significant effects for human capital, organizational size, and organizational affiliation. We find tentative support for a significant pay‐for‐performance relationship. We find that when education, tenure, size, performance, and affiliation are held constant, female executives are compensated significantly less than male executives.