Modeling Interdependent Risks

In an interdependent world the risks faced by any one agent depend not only on its choices but also on those of all others. Expectations about others' choices will influence investments in risk management and the outcome can be suboptimal for everyone. We model this as the Nash equilibrium of a game and give conditions for such a suboptimal equilibrium to be tipped to an optimal one. We also characterize the smallest coalition to tip an equilibrium, the minimum critical coalition, and show that this is also the cheapest critical coalition, so that there is no less expensive way to move the system from the suboptimal to the optimal equilibrium. We illustrate these results by reference to airline security and the control of infectious diseases via vaccination.     

Patterns of Stepchild–Stepparent Relationship Development

Thirty‐two stepdaughters and 17 stepsons participated in this grounded theory study of emerging adult stepchildren's perceptions about how relationships with their stepparents developed. The theory created from this study proposes that the degree to which stepchildren engage in relationship‐building and ‐maintaining behaviors with stepparents is a function of stepchildren's evaluative judgments about the stepparents' positive contributions. Stepchildren's judgments about stepparents are made with inputs from biological parents and other kin. Stepchildren's ages when relationships began, gender of stepchildren and stepparents, and time spent together because of custody arrangements provided the context within which relationships developed. The outcomes in this grounded theory were six patterns of step‐relationship development: accepting as a parent, liking from the start, accepting with ambivalence, changing trajectory, rejecting, and coexisting. These patterns of development were distinct trajectories that related closely to qualitatively different stepparent–stepchild relationships. Only 30% of stepchildren with multiple stepparents evaluated them similarly.     

From Breeder Reactors to Butterflies: Risk, Culture, and Biotechnology

Social theories of risk suggest that a combination of scientific and cultural perspectives converge to influence risk perception. This article first surveys sociological perspectives suggesting that risks from modern technological development have become predominant concerns in the social consciousness. Particular attention is given to those theses describing how social elements work to create perception of risks in relation to new technologies. The themes that emerge from this survey are then related to contemporary debates concerning biotechnology. Specific attention is given to recent controversies regarding genetically modified crops, and parallels are drawn between debates over nuclear power and biotechnology. A procedural ethic for public discourse and decision making over the diffusion of genetically modified foods is offered. Ethical and social theories are linked with the hope that by recognizing the social dimensions of debates over new technologies a broader framework for conducting risk analysis may emerge.     

Leading Indicators for the Service Sector

Since the service sector currently accounts for a large and growing share of U.S. economic activity, we have undertaken to develop indicators that throw light on its current status and future prospects. A composite coincident index of aggregate economic activity in the service sector is constructed, and a growth-cycle chronology is identified based on growth rates in this index and in its components. Then several macroeconomic leading indicators of service are identified, and from them a composite leading index is constructed. The growth rate in this index is found to give advance warnings of major swings in the growth of the service sector.     

Older Adults Developing a Preference for Living Apart Together

What is understood about late life partner relationships is largely based on long‐term marriage, with little attention given to understanding the process of forming new partnerships in older adulthood. However, marked growth in cohabitation and greater awareness of living apart together (LAT) suggests a need for further investigation. The purpose of this grounded theory study was to explore how decisions about LAT are made among later‐life men and women. Twenty‐five participants completed life history calendars and semistructured interviews that examined how their current relationships evolved into LAT. Seven contributing factors were identified: relational and personal goals, age, caregiver burden, partner factors, relationship histories, and shifts in social mores. What participants were “doing” during the process of deciding to live apart together was working to resolve their long‐held and often ingrained beliefs about romantic relationships. Three preferences for LAT emerged from this study: opposing, ambivalent, and advocating. Future directions for research are discussed.     

The University of Melbourne Social Studies Department

Abstract

This article seeks to explore, from a social justice perspective, as an issue of concern to social work, the manner in which the National Competition Policy has legitimated economic rationalism and its impact upon the community. It is argued under the influence of classical liberalism and economic rationalism, as reflected in the National Competition Policy, the value of individuals is being determined in terms of their contribution to the economy. In so doing notions of fairness, social justice and achieving community wellbeing through the promotion of equality, freedom and autonomy for individuals has been abandoned as governments increasingly allow market forces to structure social relations. Instrumental to the manner in which social relations are being restructured is the role of language which has enabled social justice concepts to be presented in terms of individualism.     

Using the Summed Rank Cusum for monitoring environmental data from industrial processes

Environmental issues have become a hot topic recently, especially those surrounding industrial outputs. Effluents, emissions, outflows, by-products, waste materials, product de-commissioning, land reclamation and energy consumption are all the subject of monitoring, either under new legislation or through economic necessity. Many types of environmental data are often difficult to understand or measure because of their unusual distribution of values however. Standard methods of monitoring these data types often fail or are unwieldy. The scarcity of events, small volume measurements and the unusual time scales sometimes involved add to the complexity of the task. One recently developed monitoring technique is the Summed Rank Cusum (SRC) that applies non-parametric methods to a standard chart. The SRC can be used diagnostically and this paper describes the application of this new tool to three data sets, each derived from a different problem area. These are measuring industrial effluent, assessing the levels of potentially harmful proteins produced by an industrial process and industrial land reclamation in the face of harmful waste materials. The use of the SRC to spot change points in time retrospectively is described. The paper also shows the use of SRC in the significant-difference testing mode, which is applied via the use of spreadsheets. Links to other similar methods described in the literature are given and formulae describing the statistical nature of the transformation are shown. These practical demonstrations illustrate that the graphical interpretation of the method appears to help considerably in practice when trying to find time-series change points. The charts are an effective graphical retrospective monitoring technique when dealing with non-normal data. The method is easy to apply and may help considerably in dealing with environmental data in the industrial setting when standard methods are not appropriate. Further work is continuing on the more theoretical aspects of the method.     

Short notices

Howard M. Gitelman, Workingmen of Waltham: Mobility in American Urban Industrial Development, 1850–1890 (1975), xvi+192 (Johns Hopkins University Press: Baltimore and London, £5.50).

Michael J. Cullen, The Statistical Movement in Early Victorian Britain. The Foundations of Empirical Social Research (1975), xii+205 (Harvester Press, Hassocks, £7.50).

Raymond Wolters, The New negro on Campus: Black College Rebellions of the 1920s (1975), viii+370 (Princeton University Press, £7.90).

Marie B. Rowlands, Masters and Men in the West Midland Metalware Trades before the Industrial Revolution (1975) x+198 (Manchester University Press, Manchester, £8.00).

Dwight L. Smith (ed.), Afro‐American History: A Bibliography (1974), xvi+856 (ABC Clio Inc., Santa Barbara and Oxford, £22.50).

Hugh Cunningham, The Volunteer Force: a Social and Political History 1859–1908 (1975) 168 (Croom Helm, £6.50).

Leslie Clarkson, Death, Disease and Famine in Pre‐Industrial England (Dublin, 1975), iii+188 (Gill and Macmillan, £8.75).

Arnold J. Bauer, Chilean Rural Society front the Spanish Conquest to 1930 (1975), xviii+265 (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, £7.90).

R. Kieckhefer, European Witch Trials: Their Foundation in Popular and Learned Culture, 1300–1500 (1976), x+181 (Routledge and Kegan Paul, £5.25).

David Elliston Allen, The Naturalist in Britain: a Social History (1976), xii+292 (Allen Lane, £9.00).

Paul Smith (ed.), The Historian and Film (1976), viii+208 (Cambridge University Press, £4.95).

Katherine S. Naughton, The Geentry of Bedfordshire in the 13th and 14th ceaturies (1976), 90 (Leicester University Press, Leicester, Local History Occ. Papers. 3rd series, No. 2. £3.75).

Thomas J. Archdeacon, New York City, 1664–1710: Conquest and Change (1976), 197 (Cornell University Press, Ithaca and London, £6.35).