Son survivorship motivation and family size in India: A computer simulation

Abstract Many sociologists and demographers have argued that the comparatively large families of six to eight children found in rural India to-day result from ignorance of family planning methods, from tradition, and from passive indecision; and that large reductions in the Indian growth rate to Western levels would occur spontaneously if each Indian family were given access to birth control facilities, materials and information. On the other hand, it has been maintained that large family sizes are functional for rural families in India and other developing countries; and that they result from conscious or unconscious choice based upon enlightened self-interest.     

The Interaction Between Role Structures and Self-Conceptions in Fostering Different Types of Self-Esteem in Innovative and Traditional Elementary Schools*

A two-dimensional model of inner and outer self-esteem is discussed wherein inner self-esteem is hypothesized to be an outcome of self-evaluations of performance in prominent role identities. Outer self-esteem is hypothesized to be related to self-evaluations of both prominent and nonprominent role identities. The research context is a comparison of the different processes facilitating self-esteem in innovative schools (emphasis on student-initiated activities and control) and traditional (emphasis on pre-determined curriculum and teacher-administrator control). Data across school type demonstrate a modest correlation between positive self-evaluations of performance in prominent role identities and both types of self-esteem. The data suggest that high evaluation of performance in nonprominent role identities is related to outer self-esteem but not to inner self-esteem. Further empirical clarification of the concepts was established by viewing the relationships within school type. In the innovative schools both types of self-esteem were predominantly related to positive evaluations of prominent role identities, whereas in the traditional schools both types of self-esteem were related to both performance in prominent and nonprominent role identities. Thus the theoretical distinction gained partial support while the process of gaining self-esteem was shown to be essentially different between alternate school structures. Controls for social desirability, race, sex, and father's occupation did not change these findings.     

Forecasting births in post-transition population: stochastic renewal with serially correlated fertility

Time series analysis of fertility can improve demographic forecasts. The optimal forecast and its variance for births to an age-structured population subject to serially correlated random fertility are developed. The general case in which the fertility process had arbitrary autoregressive structure is dealt with and then the 4 special cases of white noise, 1st-order autoregressive, 2nd-order autoregressive, and random walk are considered. Consequently, it is determined that the predictions and their variances are highly sensitive to the autoregressive structure of fertility and, therefore, if stochastic models are to be used for prediction, they must emphasize this aspect of the problem. Preliminary empirical efforts to model the time series of U.S. fertility from 1917 to 1972 proved unsuccessful, but it is obvious that at least a 2nd-order autoregressive scheme is require d. The analysis proveded should be helpful in: 1) any application of the procedures requires a successful parameterization of the fertility process; 2) fertility variations could be decomposed into the effects of nuptiality and marital fertility and then births and marriages could be jointly predicted; and 3) the simplifying approximations should be dropped and each age-specific rate could be analyzed and predicted.     

Contraceptive overlap with post-partum anovularity

Abstract Contraceptive use in the early post-partum months is, for the majority of women, without any direct protective value because, whilst not ovulating, they are not exposed to the risk of pregnancy. This does not, of course, imply that contraception should be delayed until signs of the resumption of ovulation appear, as for many women the first sign of such resumption is pregnancy. There are, besides, logistic and psychological reasons which make early post-partum contraception advisable. It does, however, demand that any calculation of the demographic effects of contraceptive use should make due allowance for this null period of use.     

Survey Research and Southern Politics: The Implications of Data Management

With an identical data base—the SRCICPS election studiesconducted over the 1952–1976 period—scholars arriveat conflicting conclusions about the future politics of theSouth. One problem is alternative regional definitions—thesurvey category Solid South (which includes the states of theformer Confederacy minus Tennessee) or the combined categoriesSolid South and Border South. Another problem is the choiceto analyze native whites, whites, or all election participants.Based on data presented here, these choices are not neutral;rather, they influence the research findings. If the intentis to build upon the aggregate data-based research of Key andothers, one should use the Solid South definition. Moreover,if the intent is to predict about the future politics of theSouth, one should analyze all election participants.