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In this paper we incorporate a linear demand function to model the price-volume causal relationship into stochastic cost-volume-profit (CVP) analysis. We assume that the objective function is to maximize expected profit; other objective functions are also discussed and compared. A linear stochastic model follows from which probabilistic statements can be easily obtained if the random variables are assumed to be multivariate normal. The basic framework is shown to be a special case of project value maximization where project value is the cash flow of the project discounted for time and risk according to the capital asset pricing model. Moreover, an intertemporal extension that considers inventory is developed. In summary, a new approach to stochastic CVP analysis that incorporates the management decision process in an uncertain environment is developed. 相似文献
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A Screening Methodology for the Identification and Ranking of Infrastructure Vulnerabilities Due to Terrorism 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
The extreme importance of critical infrastructures to modern society is widely recognized. These infrastructures are complex and interdependent. Protecting the critical infrastructures from terrorism presents an enormous challenge. Recognizing that society cannot afford the costs associated with absolute protection, it is necessary to identify and prioritize the vulnerabilities in these infrastructures. This article presents a methodology for the identification and prioritization of vulnerabilities in infrastructures. We model the infrastructures as interconnected digraphs and employ graph theory to identify the candidate vulnerable scenarios. These scenarios are screened for the susceptibility of their elements to a terrorist attack, and a prioritized list of vulnerabilities is produced. The prioritization methodology is based on multiattribute utility theory. The impact of losing infrastructure services is evaluated using a value tree that reflects the perceptions and values of the decisionmaker and the relevant stakeholders. These results, which are conditional on a specified threat, are provided to the decisionmaker for use in risk management. The methodology is illustrated through the presentation of a portion of the analysis conducted on the campus of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 相似文献
46.
This study assesses the combined impact of multiple certifications (i.e. ISO 9001, ISO 14001, OHSAS 18001) on perceived performance dimensions related to quality, environmental and occupational health and safety. Using survey data collected from 59 Irish manufacturing plants in 2014, we employed MANCOVA and regression analysis to test our proposed hypothesis. The results suggest that companies that are simultaneously ISO 9001, ISO 14001 and OHSAS 18001 certified are significantly better performers with regard to environmental and occupational health and safety compared to companies without multiple certifications. However, from a perceived quality performance perspective, having these multiple certifications doesn’t seem to be an effective performance improvement tool. 相似文献
47.
Engaging with Comparative Risk Appraisals: Public Views on Policy Priorities for Environmental Risk Governance 下载免费PDF全文
Sophie A. Rocks Iljana Schubert Emma Soane Edgar Black Rachel Muckle Judith Petts George Prpich Simon J. Pollard 《Risk analysis》2017,37(9):1683-1692
Communicating the rationale for allocating resources to manage policy priorities and their risks is challenging. Here, we demonstrate that environmental risks have diverse attributes and locales in their effects that may drive disproportionate responses among citizens. When 2,065 survey participants deployed summary information and their own understanding to assess 12 policy‐level environmental risks singularly, their assessment differed from a prior expert assessment. However, participants provided rankings similar to those of experts when these same 12 risks were considered as a group, allowing comparison between the different risks. Following this, when individuals were shown the prior expert assessment of this portfolio, they expressed a moderate level of confidence with the combined expert analysis. These are important findings for the comprehension of policy risks that may be subject to augmentation by climate change, their representation alongside other threats within national risk assessments, and interpretations of agency for public risk management by citizens and others. 相似文献
48.
GM Foods and the Misperception of Risk Perception 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
George Gaskell Nick Allum Wolfgang Wagner Nicole Kronberger Helge Torgersen Juergen Hampel Julie Bardes 《Risk analysis》2004,24(1):185-194
Public opposition to genetically modified (GM) food and crops is widely interpreted as the result of the public's misperception of the risks. With scientific assessment pointing to no unique risks from GM crops and foods, a strategy of accurate risk communication from trusted sources has been advocated. This is based on the assumption that the benefits of GM crops and foods are self-evident. Informed by the interpretation of some qualitative interviews with lay people, we use data from the Eurobarometer survey on biotechnology to explore the hypothesis that it is not so much the perception of risks as the absence of benefits that is the basis of the widespread rejection of GM foods and crops by the European public. Some respondents perceive both risks and benefits, and may be trading off these attributes along the lines of a rational choice model. However, for others, one attribute-benefit-appears to dominate their judgments: the lexicographic heuristic. For these respondents, their perception of risk is of limited importance in the formation of attitudes toward GM food and crops. The implication is that the absence of perceived benefits from GM foods and crops calls into question the relevance of risk communication strategies for bringing about change in public opinion. 相似文献
49.
Yaron Leyvand Dvir Shabtay George Steiner Liron Yedidsion 《Journal of Combinatorial Optimization》2010,19(3):347-368
We study scheduling problems with controllable processing times on parallel machines. Our objectives are to maximize the weighted
number of jobs that are completed exactly at their due date and to minimize the total resource allocation cost. We consider
four different models for treating the two criteria. We prove that three of these problems are
NP\mathcal{NP}
-hard even on a single machine, but somewhat surprisingly, the problem of maximizing an integrated objective function can
be solved in polynomial time even for the general case of a fixed number of unrelated parallel machines. For the three
NP\mathcal{NP}
-hard versions of the problem, with a fixed number of machines and a discrete resource type, we provide a pseudo-polynomial
time optimization algorithm, which is converted to a fully polynomial time approximation scheme. 相似文献
50.
We investigate the determinants of syndicated loan prices for European borrowers, spanning the entire period of credit expansion and crisis. We construct a large data base consisting of 2102 rated syndicated loan deals from 1990 to 2008 in twenty three countries and ten economic sectors. We investigate the effects on the spread paid over the risk free rate of three major groups of factors: loan characteristics, borrower characteristics and characteristics of country of the borrower, using both qualitative and quantitative variables in a hedonic regression. The results show that all three groups are significant joint determinants of prices of syndicated credit. Our results confirm the existing literature but also provide for first time results stemming form the risk characteristics of the borrower and the country of the borrower. It is shown that distance-to-default as well as aggregate risk associated with country of the borrower are of great concern to the lenders and hence significantly affect the pricing of syndicated loans. Furthermore, we report that financial institutions and public utilities are able to negotiate for cheaper loans, but this result is reversed when financing is for acquisition purposes. Overall, risk, liquidity, solvency and sustainable performance by both the borrower and its domicile country are key determinants of syndicated loan prices. 相似文献