Evaluating second-order probability judgments with strictly proper scoring rules

Empirical studies have demonstrated that uncertainty about event probabilities, also known as ambiguity or second-order uncertainty, can affect decision makers choice preferences. Despite the importance of second-order uncertainty in decision making, almost no effort has been directed towards the development of methods that evaluate the accuracy of second-order probabilities. In this paper, we describe conditions under which strictly proper scoring rules can be used to assess the accuracy of second-order probability judgments. We investigate the effectiveness of using a particular strictly proper scoring rule the ranked probability score - to discourage biased assessments of second-order uncertainty.     

Max Weber,critical theory,and the administered world

The sociological perspectives of Max Weber and the Frankfurt School have been viewed as polarities in much of the recent literature. The Frankfurt sociologists were advocates of a neo-Marxism that stressed dialectical reasoning and rejected the notion of value-neutrality. Weber adhered to the canons of causal logic and cultivated the ideal of objectivity in social research. Notwithstanding these theoretical and methodological differences, Weber and the advocates of critical theory arrived at surprisingly similar conclusions about the fate of the modern world. Weber saw the advent of a bureaucratic iron cage which would effectively negate the role of the individual, while the Frankfurt sociologists posited the onset of an administered world in which human activity would be smothered in an ever-expanding network of management and control. Given these commonalities, a revision of the standard evaluation of Weber and critical theory is suggested.     

By our bootstraps: Origins and effects of the high-wage doctrine and the minimum wage

Conclusion  Although the high-wage doctrine — the belief that the level of aggregate demand is determined by the level of wage rates — is most often associated with the Great Depression, the doctrine’s effects on wage policy go back at least two decades further. Rather than having been a product of desperate times, the doctrine gained wide acceptance during the prosperous 1920s as businessmen and economists, citing the success of Henry Ford's continuing high-wage policies, and the (supposedly counterproductive) wage deflation that had marked the steep depression of 1920-21, applied the doctrine's demand-enhancing logic to push for an economy-wide minimum wage. The authors thank Fred Bateman, Don Bellante, Roger Garrison, Peter Klein, and Anthony Patrick O’Brien for thoughtful comments and suggestions.     

Posterior Odds with a Generalized Hyper-g-Prior

Averaged orthogonal rotations of Zellner's g-prior yield general, interpretable, closed form Bayes factors for the normal linear model variable selection problem. Coupled with a model space prior that balances the weight between the identifiable and the unidentifiable models, limiting forms for the posterior odds ratios are seen to yield new expressions for high dimensional model choice.     

Animation in User Interfaces Designed for Decision Support Systems: The Effects of Image Abstraction,Transition, and Interactivity on Decision Quality*

This paper develops the idea of animation in user interfaces designed for decision support systems (DSS), proposes a framework to investigate the efficacy of animation in these interfaces, and reports on a study that examined the effects of properties of animation specified by the framework. Based on a review of selected background literature, principal properties affecting the efficacy of animation in user interfaces designed for DSS are identified and the effects on decision quality of three of these properties are hypothesized. To evaluate these hypotheses, data was collected in a laboratory experiment involving two different tasks. The results for both tasks indicate that animation in user interfaces designed for DSS should employ parallel as opposed to sequential navigation interactivity techniques. The decision quality of subjects that used a parallel navigation technique was significantly greater than that of those that used a sequential navigation interactivity technique. The results regarding the efficacy of image abstraction and transition effects varied by task. For one task, decision quality was significantly greater for subjects that used realistic as opposed to abstract images, but decision quality did not vary by transition effect. For the other task, decision quality was significantly greater for subjects that used gradual as compared to abrupt transition, but image abstraction had no effect on decision quality.     

Salient Value Similarity, Social Trust, and Risk/Benefit Perception

It was postulated that shared values determine social trust in institutions and persons related to a technology: One has trust in people holding similar salient values. Furthermore, it was hypothesized that social trust has a positive influence on perceived benefits and a negative impact on perceived risks. Results of a survey of University of Zürich students indicated that the proposed causal model explained perception of pesticides, nuclear power, and artificial sweetener very well. When social trust was controlled, the relation between risks and benefits perceived diminished. Results indicate that social trust is a key predictive factor of the perceived risks and benefits of a technology, and provide support for the salient values similarity theory of social trust.     

Using Model-Based Clustering to Improve Qualitative Inquiry: Computer-Aided Qualitative Data Analysis,Latent Class Analysis,and Interpretive Transparency

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - A combination of computer-aided qualitative data analysis (CAQDAS) and latent class analysis (LCA) can substantially...     

Insignificant Betas and the Efficacy of the Sharpe Diagonal Model for Portfolio Selection*

When both practitioners and theorists apply Sharpe's diagonal model [15] to simplify the portfolio selection problem, they assume that the entire covariation structure of each stock (i.e., with all other stocks) is captured in that stock's covariance with the market (or β). Furthermore, it is well known that the selection algorithm itself has a marked tendency to select stocks with the lowest βs, ceteris paribus. When a stock's β is statistically indistinguishable from zero, it is an empirical issue whether the market model is (a) less appropriate for that particular stock relative to those with statistically significant βs; or is (b) a viable model in that the covariance of this stock's rate-of-return with all other stocks' rates-of-return vanishes. The objective of this paper is to distinguish empirically between (a) and (b), and to propose a heuristic which will improve the ex-post performance of the diagonal model. The possible benefits of this heuristic are also demonstrated in a rigorous statistical framework.