Capture-recapture: before and after EURING 2000

Capture-recapture studies and analyses have become an important tool for the study of bird populations. One reason for the rapid advancement in this area has been the EURING conferences where population biologists and statisticians meet to review recent progress, identify areas that require further work, and work collaborately to solve real world problems. In this paper, we forecast the needs for future research in this area and review the recent conference to try and identify what questions are yet unsolved. This EURING conference was dedicated to Dr George Seber who was the author of a number of key papers and whose name is synonymous with 'The estimation of animal abundance and related parameter' (Seber, 1982). He has retired from working in this field.     

Bayesian estimation in Kibble's bivariate gamma distribution

The authors describe Bayesian estimation for the parameters of the bivariate gamma distribution due to Kibble (1941). The density of this distribution can be written as a mixture, which allows for a simple data augmentation scheme. The authors propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to facilitate estimation. They show that the resulting chain is geometrically ergodic, and thus a regenerative sampling procedure is applicable, which allows for estimation of the standard errors of the ergodic means. They develop Bayesian hypothesis testing procedures to test both the dependence hypothesis of the two variables and the hypothesis of equal means. They also propose a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to carry out the model selection problem. Finally, they use sets of real and simulated data to illustrate their methodology.     

The impact of gender on gambling attitudes and behavior

Researchers have often attributed the consistent relation of gender and gambling behavior to gender role socialization. If they are correct, gender should affect different sets of gambling attitudes in a manner consistent with at least three aspects of gender role socialization: a double standard of morality, a guardian of the hearth role for women, and a dualism of orientations. A survey measuring gambling attitudes and behavior was sent to a sample of residents in North Dakota after legalization of several games of chance (e.g., blackjack). Gender affects behavior but only some of the specified attitudes. These mixed results may reflect changes in gender role socialization and the increasing legalization of gambling.     

Class Consciousness and Political Attitudes among Athenians*

Using data collected in Athens, Greece in the spring of 1977, an effort was made to test the relationship between several objective socioeconomic indicators and subjective class perceptions and political attitudes. Our main concern was the effect of subjective class awareness and consciousness on selected political issues (pro-Western foreign policy, civil liberties, and economic conservatism) and voting. Our findings show that class and socioeconomic variables tend to be stronger predictors of socio-political attitudes than are status indicators. In addition, subjective perceptions of class (particularly capitalist political influence and limited societal opportunity), father's politics, and age are major explanatory variables for political attitudes and the way people perceive national and international issues. Perception that the upper class benefits most from clientelism was related to voting and economic conservatism. Working-class consciousness was important in explaining voting in 1977. Our research strategy suggests that for the future we should broaden the study of class consciousness and awareness by viewing it as multidimensional and including measurements based on both closed- and open-ended questions.     

Effects of defense spending on the Texas economy: An example of concave programming

The projected defense buildup by the Reagan Administration through 1937 will provide strong stimulus to the Texas economy. In this paper, we provide numerical estimates of the emerging additional output and the number of jobs in 173 productive sectors of the state's economy. The calculations are carried out inside the framework of a new concave programming format which makes it possible to compare the need for labor in 23 aggregate sectors with the projected available workforce. In sectors with scarce labor supply, wages will start to rise. The general price level will then also rise from the cost side. Appropriated defense dollars will then buy less real goods and services than originally envisaged. The model was solved using a computer code for successive linear programming. The computations represent one of the larger applications of this particular computer code to date.     

An analysis of variables affecting length of stay in foster care

The purpose of this paper was to find out whether the relationship between type of contact with agency and/or child in foster care and average number of contacts over time makes any difference in length of stay in foster care. Four types of contacts were examined: Family—Agency, Family Initiated—Agency, Social Worker—Initiated, and Family—Child. Results indicated that there were critical numbers for each contact type found to be statistically significant that would tend to reduce the length of the child's stay in foster care. The importance of contact during the first month of placement was emphasized.