STOCHASTIC COST-VOLUME-PROFIT ANALYSIS WITH A LINEAR DEMAND FUNCTION

In this paper we incorporate a linear demand function to model the price-volume causal relationship into stochastic cost-volume-profit (CVP) analysis. We assume that the objective function is to maximize expected profit; other objective functions are also discussed and compared. A linear stochastic model follows from which probabilistic statements can be easily obtained if the random variables are assumed to be multivariate normal. The basic framework is shown to be a special case of project value maximization where project value is the cash flow of the project discounted for time and risk according to the capital asset pricing model. Moreover, an intertemporal extension that considers inventory is developed. In summary, a new approach to stochastic CVP analysis that incorporates the management decision process in an uncertain environment is developed.     

Young Adult Gambling Behaviors and their Relationship with the Persistence of ADHD

Young adulthood is a period renowned for engagement in impulsive and risky behaviors, including gambling. There are some indications that young adults exhibit higher gambling rates in comparison to older adults. Problem gambling has also been linked to ADHD. This longitudinal study examines the relationship between gambling and ADHD among an epidemiological sample of young adults (n = 235; males = 179, females = 56) aged 18-24. Results indicate that individuals who report childhood ADHD symptoms which persist into young adulthood experience greater gambling problem severity than participants with no ADHD or those with non-persistent ADHD.     

Using the Delphi Method to Classify Medical Specialties

One medical specialty classification system applicable for research and career counseling is the person‐oriented versus technique‐oriented taxonomy. Given that the model was conceptualized in the 1960s, verification based on how medical specialties are practiced and viewed today is necessary. Five specialists in medical career development and advising verified the categorization of specialties. Based on their review, 100% consensus was reached regarding grouping of specialties. This outcome validates the taxonomy of medical specialties and supports its continued use for medical career specialty advising and choice.     

The Role of Behavioral Responses in the Total Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Air Travel Targets

U.S. airports and airliners are prime terrorist targets. Not only do the facilities and equipment represent high‐value assets, but the fear and dread that is spread by such attacks can have tremendous effects on the U.S. economy. This article presents the methodology, data, and estimates of the macroeconomic impacts stemming from behavioral responses to a simulated terrorist attack on a U.S. airport and on a domestic airliner. The analysis is based on risk‐perception surveys of these two scenarios. The responses relate to reduced demand for airline travel, shifts to other modes, spending on nontravel items, and savings of potential travel expenditures by U.S. resident passengers considering flying domestic routes. We translate these responses to individual spending categories and feed these direct impact results into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy to ascertain the indirect and total impacts on both the airline industry and the economy as a whole. Overall, the estimated impacts on GDP of both types of attacks exceed $10B. We find that the behavioral economic impacts are almost an order of magnitude higher than the ordinary business interruption impacts for the airliner attack and nearly two orders of magnitude higher for the airport attack. The results are robust to sensitivity tests on the travel behavior of U.S. residents in response to terrorism.     

Training fieldwork supervisors of social work students at a South European University: evaluation of the effectiveness of a relational psychodynamic model

This case-study adopts a mixed research methodology in order to evaluate the process and the effectiveness of a psychodynamically informed training seminar for field supervisors of undergraduate social work students, at a South European University. At the beginning of the seminar, an anonymous questionnaire gathered information on the supervisors’ demographics, preferred supervision style and expectations from the training. The training consisted of four sessions involving analysis of (1) student process-recorded interviews with clients, (2) the relationships formed between the student, the supervisor and the field practice manager, (3) brief virtual scenarios (vignettes) of field practice problems and (4) a videotaped supervision session. At the end of the training process, a follow-up questionnaire researched the satisfaction of supervisors with the training, their confidence to conduct supervision, and their satisfaction with the instructor's teaching. Overall, the training has been satisfactory for the trainees and increased their competence to supervise.     

Near‐Misses and Future Disaster Preparedness

Disasters garner attention when they occur, and organizations commonly extract valuable lessons from visible failures, adopting new behaviors in response. For example, the United States saw numerous security policy changes following the September 11 terrorist attacks and emergency management and shelter policy changes following Hurricane Katrina. But what about those events that occur that fall short of disaster? Research that examines prior hazard experience shows that this experience can be a mixed blessing. Prior experience can stimulate protective measures, but sometimes prior experience can deceive people into feeling an unwarranted sense of safety. This research focuses on how people interpret near‐miss experiences. We demonstrate that when near‐misses are interpreted as disasters that did not occur and thus provide the perception that the system is resilient to the hazard, people illegitimately underestimate the danger of subsequent hazardous situations and make riskier decisions. On the other hand, if near‐misses can be recognized and interpreted as disasters that almost happened and thus provide the perception that the system is vulnerable to the hazard, this will counter the basic “near‐miss” effect and encourage mitigation. In this article, we use these distinctions between resilient and vulnerable near‐misses to examine how people come to define an event as either a resilient or vulnerable near‐miss, as well as how this interpretation influences their perceptions of risk and their future preparedness behavior. Our contribution is in highlighting the critical role that people's interpretation of the prior experience has on their subsequent behavior and in measuring what shapes this interpretation.     

A Postmodern Critique of Societal Discourses of Male Violence in Interpersonal Family Relationships: A Balancing Act for Social Work

In recent years, treatments of family violence have tended to be built around conventional discourses suggesting that men are major initiators in instances of interpersonal violence. Utilizing a postmodernist analysis, we assess societal discourses that continue to give life to this narrow conceptualization of interpersonal violence. We also examine literature suggesting that both men and women resort to violence to resolve relationship difficulties and suggest that a more holistic and inclusive approach to understanding interpersonal violence is critical for social workers committed to social justice and a balanced understanding of the contextual nature of human problems.