Recent fertility trends in industrialized countries: Toward a fluctuating or a stable pattern?

By the mid-1980s, fertility in most of the world's developed countries had declined to unprecedentedly low levels. Since then, it has declined still further in some, increased slightly in others, and fluctuated in still others. Irrespective of cause, these changes could not have occurred in the absence of substantial control over childbearing.While future increases and decreases are both possible, it is argued that, contrary to the usual demographic expectations for populations exercising substantial control over fertility, fertility in most of these countries will increase to approximate replacement levels and then undergo only minor fluctuations around these levels thereafter.     

A cultural economy perspective on service sector migration in the global city: the case of Hong Kong

This article argues that in order to fully understand the geography of labour migration to global cities, it is necessary to consider economic forces in conjunction with mediating socio-cultural influences. Support for this argument is based on an examination of the pattern of migration to Hong Kong, a city which plays a significant role in the world economy.
Reported here are the results of an analysis of recently released 1996 by-census data, and the authors' interviews with foreign domestic workers in Hong Kong. These findings have shown that highly skilled immigrant workers were drawn largely from developed countries, the main sources of inward investment in this city, while less skilled immigrants were drawn from less developed neighbouring labour markets.
While the geographical pattern of immigration followed broadly that predicted from Hong Kong's position in the world economy, the results have revealed that cultural influences such as language and social networks are also important in shaping the economic roles of migrant workers.     

Efficient Estimation of a Distribution Function under Quadrant Dependence

LetX₁,X₂, ..., be real-valued random variables forming a strictly stationary sequence, and satisfying the basic requirement of being either pairwise positively quadrant dependent or pairwise negatively quadrant dependent. LetF^ be the marginal distribution function of theX_ips, which is estimated by the empirical distribution functionF_n and also by a smooth kernel-type estimateF_n, by means of the segmentX₁, ...,X_n. These estimates are compared on the basis of their mean squared errors (MSE). The main results of this paper are the following. Under certain regularity conditions, the optimal bandwidth (in the MSE sense) is determined, and is found to be the same as that in the independent identically distributed case. It is also shown thatn MSE(F_n(t)) andnMSE (F^_n(t)) tend to the same constant, asn→∞ so that one can not discriminate be tween the two estimates on the basis of the MSE. Next, ifi(n) = min {k∈{1, 2, ...}; MSE (F_k(t)) ≤ MSE (F_n(t))}, then it is proved thati(n)/n tends to 1, asn→∞. Thus, once again, one can not choose one estimate over the other in terms of their asymptotic relative efficiency. If, however, the squared bias ofF^_n(t) tends to 0 sufficiently fast, or equivalently, the bandwidthh_n satisfies the requirement thatnh³_n→ 0, asn→∞, it is shown that, for a suitable choice of the kernel, (i(n) ?n)/(nh_n) tends to a positive number, asn→∞ It follows that the deficiency ofF_n(t) with respect toF^_n(t),i(n) ?n, is substantial, and, actually, tends to ∞, asn→∞. In terms of deficiency, the smooth estimateF^_n(t) is preferable to the empirical distribution functionF_n(t)     

Bequests as a heir "disciple device."

This paper develops a model ofinter vivos gifts and bequests in a setting of moral hazard and adverse selection. Altruistic parents do not perfectly know how much effort their children make to earn their living, nor do they know their true level of ability.Inter vivos gifts take place prior to the realization of the children's earnings whereas at the moment of bequests, parents do observe them. We show that an optimal transfer policy generally uses a mix ofinter vivos gifts — deemed as more efficient — and bequests — deemed as more redistributive.We are thankful to Allessandro Cigno, Jacques Cremer, Claude d Aspremont and anonymous referees for their comments.Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno     

Batch sampling to improve power in a community trial. Experience from the Pawtucket Heart Health Program

Experiments involving large social units, such as schools, work sites, or whole cities, are commonly limited in statistical power because the number of randomized units is small, leaving few degrees of freedom for residual (between-unit) error. The authors describe a method for increasing residual degrees of freedom in a community experiment without substantially increasing cost or difficulty. In brief, they propose that the experimental units should be divided into random subsamples (batches). Batch sampling can improve statistical power if the community endpoint means are stable over time or if their temporal variation is comparable in period to the batch-sampling schedule. The authors demonstrate the theoretical advantages of the batch system and illustrate its use with data from the Pawtucket Heart Health Program, in which such a design was implemented.     

The health status of elderly people and the new direction of health services

The projected increase of people in Japan aged 75 years and older in the years to come implies the increase of the disabled elderly. Thus, the core of societal preparation for the aging of the population is generally considered to be the expansion of services for the disabled elderly. However, gerontological studies on the health status of the elderly conducted in Japan show that the prevalence of disability is quite low and even decreasing. Relative to the services for the disabled elderly, preventive services for the healthy elderly have long been overlooked. In 1994, the Metropolitan Tokyo Government organized a task force to develop a new health education program as the preventive health service for the healthy urban elderly. A preliminary plan outlining the health education program--consisting of propagation with a booklet, on-the-job training of practitioners, and development of new curricula and teaching materials--was proposed by the authors for discussion within the task force. Although the inquiry has just begun and the plan is still nascent, it seems adequate to fit the needs for preventive health services in the near future.     

Health care futures. Part 2: The future of physician executives? Panel discussion

What is the future of health care in America? This is Part 2 of The Physician Executive panel discussion that explores the future of health care in America. To narrow this ambitious focus somewhat, the future is defined as five to 10 years hence. In Part 1, which was published in the May/June issue, Russell C. Coile, Jr., Barbara LeTourneau, MD, MBA, FACPE, James Reinertsen, MD, Uwe Reinhardt, PhD, Marshall Ruffin, MD, MPH, MBA, FACPE, and David Vogel, MS, shared their opinions about what the future holds in managed care, information technology, and biotechnology. In Part 2, Susan Cejka, Barbara LeTourneau, MD, MBA, FACPE, John Henry Pfifferling, PhD, Uwe Reinhardt, PhD, and James Todd, MD, share their views on the future of medical education and physician executives.     

Ability, disability, and the oldest old

A measure of range of ability is used to profile the 85-years-old-and-older (oldest old) population, including the highly disabled institutional population. This new measure uses two new questions available in the 1990 Decennial Census concerning a self-care limitation and a mobility limitation as well as the usual question concerning a work limitation. In addition to examining the extent of disability among the oldest old, the article examines the extent of care potentially available in the household as well as the economic characteristics of this age group. It is also profiled in terms of relevant personal characteristics, including age, gender, marital status, race, ethnicity, rural residence, education, and employment. A key question addressed is the need for help or care among the oldest old and how various long-term care proposals would meet such needs. A careful analysis of this unique and growing population is necessary to both allay fears of the cost of care or help as well as to dispel stereotypes of this age group as frail and dependent, and in need of institutional care.