ON THE IMPLICATIONS OF SPECIFICATION UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTING*

Forecasters typically select a statistical forecasting model from among a set of alternative models. Subsequently, forecasts are generated with the chosen model and reported to management (forecast consumers) as if specification uncertainty did not exist (i.e., as if the chosen model were the “true” model of the forecast variable). In this note, a well-known Bayesian model-comparison procedure is used to illustrate some of the ambiguities and distortions of forecasts that do not reflect specification uncertainty. It is shown that a single selected forecasting model (however chosen) will generally misstate measures of forecast risk and lead to point and interval forecasts that are misplaced from a decision-theoretic point of view.     

A Multivariate Methodology for Simultaneously Capturing and Clustering Judgment Policies

This paper presents a new linear model methodology for clustering judges with homogeneous decision policies and differentiating dimensions which distinguish judgment policies. This linear policy capturing model based on canonical correlation analysis is compared to the standard model based on regression analysis and hierarchical agglomerative clustering. Potential advantages of the new methodology include simultaneous instead of sequential consideration of information in the dependent and independent variable sets, decreased interpretational difficulty in the presence of multicollinearity and/or suppressor/moderator variables, and a more clearly defined solution structure allowing assessment of a judge's relationship to all of the derived, ideal policy types. An application to capturing policies of information systems recruiters responsible for hiring entry-level personnel is used to compare and contrast the two techniques.     

Teaching about race and social action by ‘digging up the past’: the Mary Turner project

This paper explores how incorporating localized historical acts of racial injustice into Sociology courses can have a variety of pedagogical and social impacts. The use of one such event, the 1918 lynching of 13 people in South Georgia, led to the formation of the Mary Turner Project (MTP). We document the organization’s work as well as its impact on students and the region, as seen through the lens of public sociology. The MTP installed an official road marker to memorialize the lynching, intervened in a campus controversy involving the Confederate flag, hosted numerous commemoration events, and did classroom-based research and hosted community discussions on lynching and slavery in the local area. Drawing from organizational documents, the paper explores how ‘digging up the past’ and the experience of the MTP may serve as a model for critical sociologists who teach courses on social inequalities and want to make those courses more applicable to people’s every day lived experience.     

The World Health Organization and the Globalization of Chronic Noncommunicable Disease

Chronic noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in low‐ and middle‐income countries have recently provoked a surge of public interest. This article examines the policy literature—notably the archives and publications of the World Health Organization (WHO), which has dominated this field—to analyze the emergence and consolidation of this new agenda. Starting with programs to control cardiovascular disease in the 1970s, experts from Eastern and Western Europe had by the late 1980s consolidated a program for the prevention of NCD risk factors at the WHO. NCDs remained a relatively minor concern until the collaboration of World Bank health economists with WHO epidemiologists led to the Global Burden of Disease study that provided an “evidentiary breakthrough” for NCD activism by quantifying the extent of the problem. Soon after, WHO itself, facing severe criticism, underwent major reform. NCD advocacy contributed to revitalizing WHO's normative and coordinative functions. By leading a growing advocacy coalition, within which The Lancet played a key role, WHO established itself as a leading institution in this domain. However, ever‐widening concern with NCDs has not yet led to major reallocation of funding in favor of NCD programs in the developing world.     

Pathways from origins to destinations: Stability and change in the roles of cognition,private schools and educational attainment

While much attention has been devoted to measuring levels of social mobility over time, less attention has been given to the possibility of changing pathways to social mobility. This paper examines pathways from social origins to socio-economic destinations in midlife for two British cohorts, born in 1958 and 1970 respectively, using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). We address the roles of cognitive attainment, private schooling and educational attainment in mediating the link between social origins and destinations. Have these mechanisms become more or less important over time, in a context of structural change in the state schooling system and educational expansion? We find that private schools displayed greater academic selectivity and an increased link to high levels of educational attainment for the younger cohort. Essentially, private schools adapted to changing circumstances, becoming more academically selective and less socially selective, and more focused on educational credentials. Childhood social origins were less strongly linked to childhood cognitive scores in the younger cohort, but cognitive scores were also more weakly linked to educational attainment for this cohort. We also find a decreased association between social origins and educational attainment for the younger cohort. While the finding that educational inequalities weakened over this time period is positive, the lack of a corresponding reduction in the overall link between social origins and destinations suggests that reducing educational inequalities was not sufficient to increase social mobility when accompanied by countervailing changes in the role of private schools.     

Hierarchical-block conditioning approximations for high-dimensional multivariate normal probabilities

Statistics and Computing - This paper presents a new method to estimate large-scale multivariate normal probabilities. The approach combines a hierarchical representation with processing of the...     

American Indian Poverty in the Contemporary United States

Little sociological attention over the last two decades has focused on the deprivation experienced by indigenous people. Fusing insights from American Indian history and the race and labor market inequality literatures, we address this gap in this article through a historically informed labor market analysis of poverty—an analysis that considers the pervasiveness of contemporary Native poverty, its potential basis in labor market opportunities, and the extent to which it has been patterned by two major demographic and economic shifts: (1) the rapid urbanization of the American Indian population and (2) the proliferation of tribally owned casinos. Findings reveal, most notably, the incredibly rigid and durable character of poverty for this population, historically and currently and across geographic space, and with little overall impact of local labor market opportunity. The presence of tribal casinos reduces such poverty, but only to a small degree and not nearly enough to compensate for sizable American Indian and white poverty differentials. Group history is key, we conclude, to shaping how space, labor markets, and economic development reduce or buttress relations of inequality.     

Public Policies,Stakeholder Interest,and Nonprofit Development: The Case of Trade Associations in Shanghai,China

This study examines the reform and development of trade associations in Shanghai, China, one of the main economic hubs of the country and marked by a substantial growth in trade associations since the reform and “opening-up” in 1978. We analyze public policies pertaining to trade associations, survey data collected from 212 local trade associations in Shanghai, and interviews of government officials and trade association leaders. The research results show that trade associations are significantly less dependent on the government and they seem to be more oriented to providing services for and representing corporate members. We trace these changes to public policy reforms and growth in private businesses. The transition reflects the dynamic and changing relationship among the government, trade associations, and business in China. We conclude with a model of these dynamics and a discussion of the implications of this study.     

Psychometric evaluation of the Italian translation of the Gamblers’ Beliefs Questionnaire

Italy has experienced a rapid growth in gambling accessibility, expenditures and problems. Gambling-related cognitive distortions are established risk factors for disordered gambling, although little is known about the role of gambling-related cognitive distortions among Italians. To establish a valid tool for assessing these distortions, an Italian version of the Gamblers’ Beliefs Questionnaire (GBQ-I) was translated and psychometrically evaluated in a sample of 749. Eighty-five percent had gambled recently and 110 were identified as probable disordered gamblers. Good reliability, internal consistency and test-retest reliability were demonstrated. Concurrent, convergent and predictive validities also suggested that the GBQ-I is a valid and reliable measure for assessing gambling-related cognitive distortions among clinical and non-clinical Italian samples. Factor analysis explored the two-factor structure from the measures’ initial validation but was unable to replicate it. The validation of this translation of the GBQ allows for future cross-cultural research on the role of cognitive distortions in the study and treatment of gambling problems.