A REVIEW OF HEURISTIC PROGRAMMING

This article presents some of the basic concepts and definitions of the technique of heuristic programming. An analysis and criticism of the heuristic programming methodology is made. A survey of the existing literature demonstrates the power and the generality possible of heuristic programming. Furthermore, a look forward reveals likely future developments of teh technique. For several years now, impressive and extensive applications of heuristic programming have been made of various decision situations. Yet, seminars and discussions of heuristic programming continue to find the heuristic programming experts fielding basic questions such as the following: Where did heuristic programming originate? Does heuristic programming have a lexicon? What are some examples of heuristics? What is the heuristic approach? Hasn't the validity of heuristic programming been questioned? What progress has been made in using heuristic programming? What basic approaches have evolved in using heuristic programming? Is heuristic programming compatible with other research now being carried out? And what is the future of heuristic programming? This article brings the answers to these questions together for easy reference for researchers in the decision sciences of all areas.     

Further evidence for the multidimensional nature of maternal sensitivity: differential links with child socioemotional functioning at preschool age

There has been increasing scholarly attention to the study of maternal sensitivity as a multidimensional construct. This report investigated the predictive value of three dimensions of sensitivity during mother–infant interactions in an effort to gain greater understanding of how specific facets of sensitivity relate to child socioemotional outcomes. Maternal cooperation/attunement (accurate interpretation of infant cues and capacity to adjust the interaction correspondingly), positivity (positive attitude toward the infant), and accessibility/availability (consistent attentiveness) were assessed observationally in 195 mothers of 1-year-old infants. Child socioemotional functioning was assessed using behavioral tasks and maternal and teacher reports when children were 4 years of age. The results revealed that maternal accessibility/availability was predictive of less externalizing behavior, more prosocial behavior (mother- and teacher-reported), and better theory of mind, while maternal positivity predicted effortful control. These results highlight the advantages of a multidimensional assessment in understanding how sensitivity predicts different developmental outcomes.     

Sexual vs. Nonsexual Currently Most Upsetting Trauma: A Fresh Look at Attenuation of Sexual Response,Alcohol Intoxication,and Post-Traumatic Stress

This study examined the dependence of sexual response (vaginal pulse amplitude [VPA] and subjective sexual arousal) on alcohol intoxication (.10% breath alcohol concentration [BrAC] versus no alcohol) and the nature of a woman’s currently most upsetting traumatic event (C-MUTE), whether it was sexual (e.g., rape) or nonsexual (e.g., combat). Self-reported sexual outcomes were also compared by C-MUTE type. A total of 117 women completed background measures and either drank alcoholic or nonalcoholic beverages. They were shown erotic films and their VPA was assessed. A two (sexual versus nonsexual C-MUTE) by two (.10% BrAC versus no alcohol) analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed that, controlling for post-traumatic stress (PTS) symptoms, women with a sexual C-MUTE showed lower percent VPA change than women with a nonsexual C-MUTE. No significant effects were found for subjective sexual arousal. A multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) showed that women with a sexual C-MUTE reported more frequent anxiety and inhibition during partnered sex and more frequent lack of vaginal lubrication versus women with a nonsexual C-MUTE. There was no significant interaction between C-MUTE and alcohol intoxication. Whether a woman is currently upset by past sexual victimization may influence current sexual difficulties. Attenuated VPA may be attributable to the sexual nature of a C-MUTE as opposed to general trauma exposure.     

Collective corruption–How to live with it: Towards a projection theory of post-crisis corruption perpetuation

This article draws on social psychology to explore the unconscious cognitive processes allowing for perpetuation of collective corruption in organisations in the aftermath of crises. In particular, we argue that, when faced with the cognitive dissonance produced by exposed collective corruption, and having to choose between changing behaviour or changing cognition, projection theory provides support for the latter. Thus, we identify the role of projection theory in overcoming cognitive dissonance in groups by projecting blame on to their leaders while continuing practices of corruption. These insights contribute to our understanding of perpetuation of collective corruption in organisations as well as at a societal level.     

Sustainability and Disaster Planning: What Are the Connections?

In this article, we examine the connections between resiliency and sustainability by asking: Can disaster planning lead to more sustainability actions? In a survey we conducted of 1,899 cities, towns, and counties across the United States in 2015, we found that disaster plans are three times more common than sustainability plans. Our regression models find both types of plans lead to sustainability action as does regional collaboration across the rural‐urban interface. However, we find that hazard mitigation planning may be done without including sustainability staff, citizens, and other officials. After controlling for motivations, capacity, and cooperation, we find that rural communities are more likely to have sustainability plans than suburbs, though their level of sustainability action is lower due to capacity constraints. Our models of multilevel governance find local motivations balance sustainability’s concept of environmental protection, economic development, and social equity—and are more important drivers of action than grassroots or higher‐level government funding and policy. This bodes well in a context where federal government leadership on sustainability is absent.     

Goals as reference points in marathon running: A novel test of reference dependence

In a large-scale field study of marathon runners, we test whether goals act as reference points in shaping the valuation of outcomes. Theories of reference-dependent preferences, such as Prospect Theory, imply that outcomes that are just below or just above a reference point are evaluated differently. Consistent with the Prospect Theory value function, we find that satisfaction as a function of relative performance (the difference between a runner’s finishing time goal and her actual finishing time) exhibits loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity in both predictions of and actual experienced satisfaction. However, in contrast to Prospect Theory, we observe that loss aversion is partially driven by a discontinuity or jump at the reference point. In addition, we find that a runner’s time goal as well as their previous marathon times simultaneously impact runner satisfaction, providing support for the impact of multiple reference points on satisfaction.     

A Bayesian nonparametric causal model

Typically, in the practice of causal inference from observational studies, a parametric model is assumed for the joint population density of potential outcomes and treatment assignments, and possibly this is accompanied by the assumption of no hidden bias. However, both assumptions are questionable for real data, the accuracy of causal inference is compromised when the data violates either assumption, and the parametric assumption precludes capturing a more general range of density shapes (e.g., heavier tail behavior and possible multi-modalities). We introduce a flexible, Bayesian nonparametric causal model to provide more accurate causal inferences. The model makes use of a stick-breaking prior, which has the flexibility to capture any multi-modalities, skewness and heavier tail behavior in this joint population density, while accounting for hidden bias. We prove the asymptotic consistency of the posterior distribution of the model, and illustrate our causal model through the analysis of small and large observational data sets.     

From bedside to bench: does mental and physical activity promote cognitive vitality in late life?

A wide range of animal and human studies provide evidence for the potential of physical and cognitive exercise in promoting cognitive health later in life. The effects of such activities on intermediate outcomes, such as cognitive performance, are becoming clearer, as are the molecular mechanisms involved. Physical and cognitive exercise might increase "cognitive reserve" and increase the overall health of the brain, thereby reducing or delaying cognitive impairment and dementia. However, conclusive evidence for such benefits is not yet established. The third annual Bedside to Bench conference, cosponsored by The American Geriatrics Society and the National Institutes of Health's National Institute on Aging, reviewed current knowledge regarding the role of physical and cognitive exercise in promoting cognitive vitality. Conference attendees identified gaps in our current understanding of these processes and recommended next steps for research. In particular, researchers will need to explore clinical issues related to the timing, intensity, and duration of various types and combinations of physical and cognitive activities in animal models to elucidate the mechanisms involved and inform the design of future human studies. The concept of the enriched environment currently employed in animal studies to promote physical activity, socialization, and problem solving should be explored in human studies.     

Simultaneous confidence bands for nonlinear regression models

The maximization and minimization procedure for constructing confidence bands about general regression models is explained. Then, using an existing confidence region about the parameters of a nonlinear regression model and the maximization and minimization procedure, a generally conservative simultaneous confidence band is constructed about the model. Two examples are given, and some problems with the procedure are discussed