New information and social trust: asymmetry and perseverance of attributions about hazard managers.

It has been argued that news about negative events has a much stronger effect on decreasing social trust than does news about positive events on increasing it. This asymmetry principle of trust was investigated in two surveys that also investigated the perseverance of trust. The possibility that established trust attributions persevere in the face of new information raises questions about the limits of trust asymmetry. The two studies yielded evidence that both type of news (good versus bad) and initial general trust in the nuclear power industry or the food supply industry affected level of trust. Compared to individuals trusting the industry, those distrusting the industry exhibited less trust following both bad and good news events. Study I also found that judged informativeness and judged positiveness of news events were affected by type of news and general trust of the industry. Individuals low in general trust of the nuclear power industry judged both bad news and good news as less positive than did those high in general trust. Those low in general trust judged bad news as more informative than good news and than did those high in general trust. An important implication of the perseverance of trust is to focus attention on including not only the effects of information about specific events and actions, but also on the judgment processes underlying social trust. The Salient Value Similarity model is suggested as one way of accounting for these psychological processes.     

Unbiased estimators for restricted adaptive cluster sampling

In adaptive cluster sampling the size of the final sample is random, thus creating design problems. To get round this, Brown (1994) and Brown & Manly (1998) proposed a modification of the method, placing a restriction on the size of the sample, and using standard but biased estimators for estimating the population mean. But in this paper a new unbiased estimator and an unbiased variance estimator are proposed, based on estimators proposed by Murthy (1957) and extended to sequential and adaptive sampling designs by Salehi & Seber (2001). The paper also considers a restricted version of the adaptive scheme of Salehi & Seber (1997a) in which the networks are selected without replacement, and obtains unbiased estimators. The method is demonstrated by a simple example. Using simulation from this example, the new estimators are shown to compare very favourably with the standard biased estimators.     

The Present State of Sociological Theory*

Sociology has fractured into a number of schools, each claiming to be distinct from the others and to have its own theory. The trouble with the theories is that most of them fail to make their general propositions explicit. Were they made explicit, all the theories would turn out to contain at least the general propositions of behavioral psychology, and the intellectual unification of sociology could begin. The paper discusses the reasons why many sociologists are reluctant to accept this argument. It also discusses other claimants to the status of theory, including “pattern” theories, functional theories (one of which is really behavioral), and the difficulties created by some uses of the concept, social structure.     

Metatheorizing in sociology

This paper describes and makes the case for sociological metatheorizing, or the systematic study of sociological theory. Three types of metatheorizing are delineated on the basis of their end products: the attainment of a deeper understanding of theory, the creation of new theory, and the creation of an overarching theoretical perspective (a metatheory). The basic problems in metatheorizing are reviewed and it is concluded that the most basic difficulty has been the lack of a clear definition of the subfield. Some thoughts on the future of metatheorizing in sociology are offered.     

Conditional Influence Diagrams in Risk Management

This paper introduces conditional influence diagrams into risk management. A contaminated-site cleanup involving two stakeholders is used as a hypothetical case study. The treatment choices must satisfy several conflicting objectives. Any decision made by one stakeholder will affect the choices of the other stakeholder. In building the influence diagrams for each of the stakeholders, the logical relationship of all relevant factors is determined and the values of these factors are analyzed. The influence diagram for each stakeholder is conditional on the options available to the other stakeholder. The influence diagrams are, then, used to evaluate the possible choices of each stakeholder based on decision options of the other stakeholder. These results are analyzed using game theory methods to gain insights useful to risk management and to demonstrate how mutual trust and cooperation can lead to decisions benefiting both stakeholders.