The Assessment of Probability Distributions from Expert Opinions with an Application to Seismic Fragility Curves

A method is developed for estimating a probability distribution using estimates of its percentiles provided by experts. The analyst's judgment concerning the credibility of these expert opinions is quantified in the likelihood function of Bayes'Theorem. The model considers explicitly the random variability of each expert estimate, the dependencies among the estimates of each expert, the dependencies among experts, and potential systematic biases. The relation between the results of the formal methods of this paper and methods used in practice is explored. A series of sensitivity studies provides insights into the significance of the parameters of the model. The methodology is applied to the problem of estimation of seismic fragility curves (i.e., the conditional probability of equipment failure given a seismically induced stress).     

METHODS FOR QUANTIFYING SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES AND MULTI-ATTRIBUTE UTILITIES*†

In many situations where normative decision-aiding techniques could be usefully applied, historical data are inadequate for estimating the required outcome probabilities, and economic methodologies are inadequate for estimating the aggregate utility derived from the several outcome attributes. In such cases it is often useful to obtain the required estimates in the form of expert judgments, i.e. to obtain subjective probabilities and multi-attribute utilities. Similarly, in many situations where behavioral decision processes are to be studied, it is necessary to scale the expectations and perceived values of the decision makers. This article describes the methods for eliciting subjective probabilities and multi-attribute utilities whose usefulness has been empirically studied and reported in the research literature. It also contains summary guidelines concerning the elicitation and use of such judgments.     

An investigation of youths' attributions for unemployment and their political attitudes

This study investigated some hypotheses concerning the determinants of attributions for unemployment and the psychological consequences of unemployment in a randomly selected sample of 204 male school leavers. There was weak evidence for the hypothesis that the unemployed make more external attributions for unemployment, but none showing them to make less internal attributions. There was weak evidence that political party preference was related to internal and external attributions, and stronger evidence that a general tendency to see life as determined by chance was linked to external attributions. The unemployed were found to be more likely to support violent political action, to support the Labour Party, and to believe chance controlled their lives. Finally, external attributions were seen as more important than internal ones by all respondents. The results suggest that other factors, e.g. the mass media, may be influential in determining the nature of attributions and this is interpreted in the context of Moscovici's social representation theory.     

Analytic approaches to problems of a middle-sized defence department

The application of operational research to the problems of Canadian defence was very similar to that in Great Britain and the United States during World War II and through the 1950s. But because of the rapidly increasing costs of major weapon systems, since the 1960s systems analysis has been very thoroughly applied to the study of the large procurement programs, including far-reaching examination of their economic impact on the nation. Other problems of special interest to Canada which received analytical attention included peacekeeping and military involvement in activities such as maritime surveillance and search and rescue. Analytical studies have been extended into examination of logistics and manpower, and into economic, sociological, and strategic problems of concern to the Canadian defence department, including arms control. This type of research represents a considerable excursion from the original operational research, but is needed in the Canadian Department of National Defence.     

Cultural Analysis of Religious Change and Movements*

In this article I review a cultural perspective on religion and suggest that cultural analysis resolves current debates over the nature of religion as either collectivist or individualist. I use one type of cultural analysis, institutionalism, to present an interpretive overview of religious change and movements in historical contexts of global instrumental rationality, in particular the expansion of state authority. The usefulness of this approach is revealed in interpreting Protestantism in the United States, Islamic fundamentalism, and movements and trends in global Roman Catholicism. While not reflecting precisely the views of the authors of this collection, this article introduces the studies of the recent restructuring of religion in the United States (Robert Wuthnow), Islamic fundamentalisms in Iran and Syria (Mansoor Moaddel). and global Roman Catholicism (Jose Casanova).     

Critical Perspectives in Antiracism: An Introduction*

Ce numéro spécial de la RCSA est consacré aux nouvelles façons d'aborder la lutte antiraciste dans des contextes multiraciaux. Les auteurs examinent les pratiques antiracistes selon des points de vue différents qui parfois se chevauchent, et tracent les grandes lignes de la pratique antiraciste, tout particullièrement en ce qui concerne la pédagogie et les ateliers antiracistes. Ils apportent leur contribution à létude de l'antiracisme critique et à son application dans le discours pédagogique. Il est question également dévolution sociale et pédagogique, et ils montrent comment le discours et la pratique anti-racistes peuvent l'accélérer. Même si les fondements théoriques et méthodologiques de l'antiracisme ne sont pas entièrement définis, les auteurs s'efforcent de reformuler l'antiracisme à partir de ses origines propres. Le présent article amorce la discussion en fixant les limites du discours et en précisant l'impact de l'antiracisme sur lévolution pédagogique et sociale. Il examine comment une culture antiraciste peut sépanouir, surtout dans un contexte eurocanadien et euroaméricain. Les répercussions de la mondialisation sur léducation et lévolution sociale sont examinées, tout comme le sont les motifs de ceux qui préconisent une mise en pratique de la pensée antiraciste. This special issue of the CRSA aims to explore new ways of thinking about antiracism praxis in multiracial contexts. The papers in this issue examine antiracism praxis from varying and intersecting backgrounds and positions. They present a broad view of antiracism extending from teacher education to antiracism workshop training. They build on existing scholarship in critical antiracism as a pedagogical discourse and a communicative and political practice. A key question is: How we can ensure that antiracism discourse and practice connect to achieve educational and transformative social change? While the theoretical and methodological underpinnings of antiracism are still in the formative stage, the essays will add to ongoing attempts to (re)conceptualize antiracism from its original formulations. This article begins the dialogue by specifying an antiracism discursive framework and the implications of anti-racism's basic tenets for transformative learning and social change. It explores some of the ways that antiracism knowledge can be constructed, produced and disseminated, particularly (but not exclusively) in Euro-Canadian/American contexts, and highlights some of the challenges that current globalization processes provide for education and social change, and the rationale for engaging in antiracism praxis.     

Talcott Parsons'Marshall Lectures: Contemporay, But Flawed

The occasion of the publication of Parsons'Marshall Lectures is used to demonstrate Parsons'prescience and the contemporary relevance of his ideas. It is argued that these lectures are similar in intent to the recent work of Amitai Etzioni and his objective of creating the field of socio-economics. The two works are compared and their relative strengths and weaknesses discussed. Parsons is shown to be well ahead of his time, not only in his effort to integrate social and economic concerns, but in the broader integrative intent of his overall theory. While Parsons was not able to begin to engineer a rapprochement with economics, such an intellectual integration may be more possible today because economics appears to be in greater crisis and sociology seems to have more to offer to disaffected economists.     

TOWARD A REVISED FRAMEWORK FOR EXAMINING BELIEFS ABOUT THE CAUSES OF POVERTY

This study uses survey data from Baltimore, Maryland to assess predictions from the dominant ideology thesis and the public arenas theory concerning causal beliefs about three specific types of poverty—welfare dependency, homelessness and impoverished migrant laborers. Findings indicate that the incidence and determinants of causal beliefs are more complex than has been reached in prior "generic' poverty research and the findings provide greater support for the public arenas theory. Three findings are of particular note: (1) sample respondents have distinctive causal beliefs for different types of poverty: for welfare dependency, individualistic beliefs are dominant; for homelessness, structural causes are emphasized; a causal "middle ground' is most popular for impoverished migrant laborers (2) status characteristics do not operate as determinants of causal beliefs in a straightfor-ward fashion for any of the three poverty types and, (3) variables that measure types of exposure to, and perceived racial composition of, the poor are also significant determinants of causal beliefs. The effects of variables that measure perceived racial composition are particularly strong and the pattern of "color coding' suggests that racial prejudice shapes causal beliefs about the plight of the poor. The implications of the findings for the mobility opportunities of the three impoverished groups are discussed.