A MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ENERGY SUBSIDIES IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY

We construct a dynamic model of a small open economy to analyze the effects of large energy subsidies. The model includes domestic energy production and consumption, trade in energy at world market prices, as well as private and public sector production. The model is calibrated to Egypt and used to study reforms such as reductions in energy subsidies with corresponding reductions in various tax instruments or increases in infrastructure investment. We calculate the new steady states, transition paths to the new steady state, and the size of the associated welfare losses or gains. Our main results for a 15% cut in energy subsidies are: (1) Steady state gross domestic product drops in most of our experiments as less energy is used in production. (2) Steady state consumption rises in most of our experiments. (3) Welfare can rise by as much as 0.6% in consumption equivalent terms. (4) The largest gains in terms of output and of welfare can be obtained when savings from energy subsidy cuts are used to fund additional infrastructure investment. (JEL E21, E63, H55, J26, J45)     

Progrès économiques et avancées sociales au sein des chaînes d'approvisionnement mondiales: plusieurs exemples dans les pays du cône Sud

Les auteurs s'interrogent sur la nature et la diffusion des progrès induits par les chaînes d'approvisionnement mondiales (CAM), en s'appuyant sur les conclusions de neuf études de cas portant sur des filières implantées dans des pays du sud de l'Amérique latine. Des progrès économiques, associés à certaines avancées en matière sociale, sont observés parmi les entreprises têtes de file, mais les fournisseurs en amont n'en tirent pas toujours profit. Après avoir isolé trois types d'évolutions possibles au sein des CAM (développements «antagoniste», «tronqué» et «intégré»), les auteurs formulent des recommandations en ce qui concerne l'action des pouvoirs publics, des entreprises et des acteurs sociaux.     

An adolescent services plan to incorporate status offenders into the child welfare system

A model plan is presented for adolescent services that would facilitate the current trend to shift troubled but nondelinquent youngsters from the juvenile justice system into the child welfare system.     

Alienation,indifference and the choice of ideological position

In this paper we describe a simple model of individual voting behavior and present its implications for the candidate positioning problem under both vote and plurality maximization. Under our assumptions, some voters at the extremes of the ideological spectrum typically will not vote because they are alienated by the equilibrium location of candidates. There will also be some voters in the middle of the ideological spectrum who will not vote because they are indifferent between the equilibrium locations of the candidates. Both the abstention from alienation and from indifference arise explicitly from utility maximization. Once we allow for alienation and indifference, the two alternative candidate objective functions (vote maximization and plurality maximization) yield different outcomes. In particular, we show that under vote maximization the Median Voter (or Minimum Differentiation) outcome will not arise. On the other hand, under plurality maximization, the Median Voter outcome may or may not hold, depending on the distribution of voter preferences.We should like to thank Jerry Fusselman, Jon Hamilton, Mel Hinich, Charlie Holt and participants at seminars at the University of Virginia, Northwestern University and the 1989 Meetings of the Public Choice Society and the Economic Science Association for their helpful comments.     

Similarity in friendship networks: Selection or influence? The effect of constraining contexts and non-visible individual attributes

Most research on similarity in friendship networks focuses on clearly visible individual attributes (i.e. attitudes and behaviors) in contexts where choices whom to befriend are relatively unconstrained. These studies often reveal that social selection rather than social influence is the dominant cause of similarity among friends. We argue that in a setting where social collaboration is crucial and friendship choices are more constrained, influence might be the main reason for similarity found among friends. In addition, we examined whether social categorization and peer control amplifies the social influence process among friends. Using a stochastic actor-based model for network dynamics, we analyzed a three-wave dataset of first year Royal Netherlands Naval College officer students on friendship formation and military discipline. The data supports our first hypothesis that students adjust their own military discipline to that of their friends. Contrary to our expectations, we did not find support for the idea that individuals adjust their discipline more to friends who are of the same military specialty, and neither more to friends who exert peer control. We elaborate on these findings in the discussion.     

Opting out of publicly provided services: A majority voting result

Our objective in this paper is to examine majority voting in an environment where both public and private alternatives coexist. We construct a model in which households are differentiated by income and have the option of choosing between publicly provided services and private services. Publicly provided services are financed through income tax revenues and made available to all citizens at zero price. Majority voting determines the tax rate. Even though preferences over tax rates are not single peaked, we provide conditions under which a majority voting equilibrium exists. We illustrate our existence result with CES preferences and a Dagum income distribution. Received: 21 December 1993 / Accepted: 2 September 1996     

Simultaneous Small Sample Inference for Linear Combinations of Generalized Linear Model Parameters

A method is proposed to construct simultaneous confidence intervals for multiple linear combinations of generalized linear model parameters, that uses a multivariate normal- or t-distribution together with the signed likelihood root statistic. In an application to a case study simultaneous confidence bands for logistic regression are calculated. A simulation study based on the example evaluation suggests superior performance compared to the common Wald-type approaches. The proposed methods are readily implemented in the R extension package mcprofile.     

Income Protection Through Direct Employment Programmes: Recent Concepts and Examples from Latin America

The risk of unemployment in Latin America is high. Unemployment insurance exists only in a few countries; coverage is small, and virtually non-existent in the informal economy. For this reason social protection policies for unemployed workers, defined in the broad sense, have addressed and strengthened the role of direct employment programmes and assistance through cash subsidies. This article describes the main features (financing and administration) of direct employment programmes in the region and their objectives, and evaluates their functioning in terms of targets and coverage, costs and impact. Available studies show that the net direct impact of such programmes on unemployment rates and on beneficiaries' incomes is in most cases relatively low. Nevertheless, in some cases they have helped to lower levels of unemployment and poverty, and have indirect positive effects that are more difficult to measure, such as incentives to economic recovery resulting from the chain effect on consumption of beneficiaries buying goods. For this reason direct employment programmes remain a fully valid mechanism, especially in social emergencies.     

The Impact of Multiple Commitments on Intentions to Resign: an Empirical Assessment

A number of authors have recently drawn attention to the need to explore, conceptually and empirically, the relationships between different types of employee commitment and work outcomes. Management, continually grappling with the challenge of organizational effectiveness, is often interested in outcomes such as the individual job-performance levels of employees and absenteeism as well as the number of resignations from the organization. One of these, turnover as measured by intentions to resign, and its relationship with multiple commitments in the organization, is the focus of this study. The first objective was to compare the impact of four constituent-specific commitments (commitment to the organization, job, profession and supervisor), termed 'employee commitment', on intentions to resign. Second, the 'key mediating construct' proposition of organizational commitment suggested by Hunt and Morgan (1994) was empirically evaluated. The empirical results show that the impact of commitment to the profession on intentions to resign is the most influential. In addition, the data suggest that neither the 'one of many' model nor the 'key mediating construct' theory of employee commitment can be described as superior in explaining intentions to resign.