The use of analytical methods and tools in international negotiations: A practitioner's perspective

This paper presents a practitioner's perspective on the use of systematic analytical techniques to improve the practice of international negotiations, primarily in a multilateral context. A generic model of the negotiation process is presented and the utility of various analytical methodologies is evaluated against the component functions described by the model. Overall, analytical tools for negotiation support are viewed as most useful in the prenegotiation phase. Conclusions are based primarily on practical experience, not on theories of negotiation.     

Pole Pole Watamu — Langsam, langsam, weißer Mann!

?Time“ is an invention of man and as well as space it is a principal tool for organizational purposes, and it is necessary to find consensus about it. In the age of virtual reality it becomes more and more unnecessary to maintain a structure of space and time. Therefore, methods of group dynamics become more important that help to establish ?time-consensus“.     

(When) Is job-finding via personal contacts a meaningful concept for social network analysis? A comment to

Chua (2011) argues that in a meritocratic context, institutions restrict the usefulness of social networks in exerting influence on job seekers’ earnings. Regressing job-finding via personal contacts on earnings, he finds negative effects of influence via personal contacts, especially for the well-educated and individuals working in the state sector. In this comment, I argue that these results are ambiguous because (1) the analysis does not sufficiently distinguish between job ‘search’ methods and job ‘finding’ methods, (2) job-finding method indicates information flow rather than a personal contact's influence, and (3) it remains unclear whether Chua's analysis reflects the effect of network usage in job search per se or the effect of self-selection into network usage by individuals with low earning potential.     

Is Poker a Game of Skill or Chance? A Quasi-Experimental Study

Due to intensive marketing and the rapid growth of online gambling, poker currently enjoys great popularity among large sections of the population. Although poker is legally a game of chance in most countries, some (particularly operators of private poker web sites) argue that it should be regarded as a game of skill or sport because the outcome of the game primarily depends on individual aptitude and skill. The available findings indicate that skill plays a meaningful role; however, serious methodological weaknesses and the absence of reliable information regarding the relative importance of chance and skill considerably limit the validity of extant research. Adopting a quasi-experimental approach, the present study examined the extent to which the influence of poker playing skill was more important than card distribution. Three average players and three experts sat down at a six-player table and played 60 computer-based hands of the poker variant “Texas Hold’em” for money. In each hand, one of the average players and one expert received (a) better-than-average cards (winner’s box), (b) average cards (neutral box) and (c) worse-than-average cards (loser’s box). The standardized manipulation of the card distribution controlled the factor of chance to determine differences in performance between the average and expert groups. Overall, 150 individuals participated in a “fixed-limit” game variant, and 150 individuals participated in a “no-limit” game variant. ANOVA results showed that experts did not outperform average players in terms of final cash balance. Rather, card distribution was the decisive factor for successful poker playing. However, expert players were better able to minimize losses when confronted with disadvantageous conditions (i.e., worse-than-average cards). No significant differences were observed between the game variants. Furthermore, supplementary analyses confirm differential game-related actions dependent on the card distribution, player status, and game variant. In conclusion, the study findings indicate that poker should be regarded as a game of chance, at least under certain basic conditions, and suggest new directions for further research.     

Kulturdiverse Teams im Rahmen internationaler Organisationsentwicklung

This article focuses on difficulties, internationally oriented organizational development projects, are confronted with when speaking in terms of culturalism. Triggered by cultural differences, different mental maps and behaviour patterns develop within members of different cultures. The challenge consists in finding mutuality (unity) in diversity. For this purpose, the theoretical concepts of multiculturalism and transculturalism will be explored in terms of their usefulness and contrasted with each other. To master the identified challenge a practical 4-stage process of transcending different cultures is suggested which, from a systematical perspective, possibly generates new qualities.     

Additive mixed models with approximate Dirichlet process mixtures: the EM approach

We consider additive mixed models for longitudinal data with a nonlinear time trend. As random effects distribution an approximate Dirichlet process mixture is proposed that is based on the truncated version of the stick breaking presentation of the Dirichlet process and provides a Gaussian mixture with a data driven choice of the number of mixture components. The main advantage of the specification is its ability to identify clusters of subjects with a similar random effects structure. For the estimation of the trend curve the mixed model representation of penalized splines is used. An Expectation-Maximization algorithm is given that solves the estimation problem and that exhibits advantages over Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches, which are typically used when modeling with Dirichlet processes. The method is evaluated in a simulation study and applied to theophylline data and to body mass index profiles of children.     

The impact of taxation on the distribution of wealth in an economy with changing population

The paper investigates into the determinants of the personal distribution of income and wealth. In an overlapping generations model all individuals are assumed to be identical except for their inherited wealth. Since life time is random the bequest of an individual and thus the inherited stock of capital of its children are stochastic variables. Taxation and social security contributions affect life cycle savings, bequests, and, eventually, the distribution of income and wealth in the society. It is shown that, in general, higher tax rates reduce distributive inequality as long as the rate of interest is exogenously given. In steady state, however, where the rate of interest is determined endogenously, increasing taxation and higher social security payments both diminish the capital labor ratio so that the rate of interest rises. If this interest effect is strong enough then it may outbalance the tendency toward more equality because higher interest rates enhance initial differences in the distribution of both income and wealth and, eventually, the inequality in the distribution of income and wealth in the society.     

A multi-level cost–benefit approach for regulatory decision support in food safety and quality assurance scenarios

In complex policy decision situations where policy objectives cannot be reached alone through the aggregate actions of individual actors, the classical approaches for measuring the effects of regulatory initiatives such as cost–benefit analysis do not provide the information necessary for decision support. This paper discusses a framework for a multi-level analysis approach that could provide decision support in multi-level policy decision situations.