Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries

We describe a Bayesian projection model to produce country-specific projections of the total fertility rate (TFR) for all countries. The model decomposes the evolution of TFR into three phases: pre-transition high fertility, the fertility transition, and post-transition low fertility. The model for the fertility decline builds on the United Nations Population Division’s current deterministic projection methodology, which assumes that fertility will eventually fall below replacement level. It models the decline in TFR as the sum of two logistic functions that depend on the current TFR level, and a random term. A Bayesian hierarchical model is used to project future TFR based on both the country’s TFR history and the pattern of all countries. It is estimated from United Nations estimates of past TFR in all countries using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The post-transition low fertility phase is modeled using an autoregressive model, in which long-term TFR projections converge toward and oscillate around replacement level. The method is evaluated using out-of-sample projections for the period since 1980 and the period since 1995, and is found to be well calibrated.     

Opting out of publicly provided services: A majority voting result

Our objective in this paper is to examine majority voting in an environment where both public and private alternatives coexist. We construct a model in which households are differentiated by income and have the option of choosing between publicly provided services and private services. Publicly provided services are financed through income tax revenues and made available to all citizens at zero price. Majority voting determines the tax rate. Even though preferences over tax rates are not single peaked, we provide conditions under which a majority voting equilibrium exists. We illustrate our existence result with CES preferences and a Dagum income distribution. Received: 21 December 1993 / Accepted: 2 September 1996     

More Like Us: The Effect of Immigrant Generation on College Success in Mathematics

This article investigates the impact of immigrant generation on students performance in college calculus courses and examines the extent to which the observed patterns corroborate or contradict various assimilation theories. It goes beyond past studies of the relationship between immigrant generation and mathematics achievement that focused primarily on middle and high school students and typically excluded foreign students. Our principal finding is that foreign students and the 1.25 generation earned the highest grades, on average, even after controlling for race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status. Our findings provide partial support for the immigrant advantage theory.     

A Branch and Cut solver for the maximum stable set problem

This paper deals with the cutting-plane approach to the maximum stable set problem. We provide theoretical results regarding the facet-defining property of inequalities obtained by a known project-and-lift-style separation method called edge-projection, and its variants. An implementation of a Branch and Cut algorithm is described, which uses edge-projection and two other separation tools which have been discussed for other problems: local cuts (pioneered by Applegate, Bixby, Chvátal and Cook) and mod-k cuts. We compare the performance of this approach to another one by Rossi and Smiriglio (Oper. Res. Lett. 28:63–74, 2001) and discuss the value of the tools we have tested.     

The Impact of Multiple Commitments on Intentions to Resign: an Empirical Assessment

A number of authors have recently drawn attention to the need to explore, conceptually and empirically, the relationships between different types of employee commitment and work outcomes. Management, continually grappling with the challenge of organizational effectiveness, is often interested in outcomes such as the individual job-performance levels of employees and absenteeism as well as the number of resignations from the organization. One of these, turnover as measured by intentions to resign, and its relationship with multiple commitments in the organization, is the focus of this study. The first objective was to compare the impact of four constituent-specific commitments (commitment to the organization, job, profession and supervisor), termed 'employee commitment', on intentions to resign. Second, the 'key mediating construct' proposition of organizational commitment suggested by Hunt and Morgan (1994) was empirically evaluated. The empirical results show that the impact of commitment to the profession on intentions to resign is the most influential. In addition, the data suggest that neither the 'one of many' model nor the 'key mediating construct' theory of employee commitment can be described as superior in explaining intentions to resign.     

On the definition of public relations: a European view

The article confronts a U.S.-based definition of public relations as relationship management with a European view that besides a relational, argues also for a reflective paradigm that is concerned with publics and the public sphere; not only with relational (which can in principle be private), but also with public consequences of organizational behavior. The article is based on a three year research project on the European Public Relations Body of Knowledge and it reflects on the consequence of that project for definitional activities in the US practitioner and academic communities.     

Cooperation in the Face of Conflict: Effects of Top Managers’ Trust Beliefs in their Firms’ Major Suppliers

As with any relationships, those between buying firms and their major suppliers are likely to experience situations of conflict. When facing such situations, top managers tend to approach conflict either cooperatively or competitively. However, when and why top managers tend towards cooperation or competition is far from clear. This study proposes a novel link between the theory of cooperation and competition and the discounting principle of attribution theory to argue that it is top managers’ trust beliefs in their firms’ major suppliers that influences their intended approach to conflict. Using survey data from 140 C‐level managers and business owners, the authors develop and test a model that differentiates between two attributional dimensions of trust (competence and goodwill) and the specific relational conditions that influence how these attributions operate. The results indicate that top managers’ trust in their suppliers’ competence and goodwill is, in fact, decisive in determining how they intend to approach conflict. Further, the authors demonstrate that a top manager's trust belief in the supplier's goodwill is of particular relevance in driving the top manager to cooperate in the face of conflict. However, this link seems to be contingent on the specific conditions of the buyer–supplier relationship in question.     

Income Protection Through Direct Employment Programmes: Recent Concepts and Examples from Latin America

The risk of unemployment in Latin America is high. Unemployment insurance exists only in a few countries; coverage is small, and virtually non-existent in the informal economy. For this reason social protection policies for unemployed workers, defined in the broad sense, have addressed and strengthened the role of direct employment programmes and assistance through cash subsidies. This article describes the main features (financing and administration) of direct employment programmes in the region and their objectives, and evaluates their functioning in terms of targets and coverage, costs and impact. Available studies show that the net direct impact of such programmes on unemployment rates and on beneficiaries' incomes is in most cases relatively low. Nevertheless, in some cases they have helped to lower levels of unemployment and poverty, and have indirect positive effects that are more difficult to measure, such as incentives to economic recovery resulting from the chain effect on consumption of beneficiaries buying goods. For this reason direct employment programmes remain a fully valid mechanism, especially in social emergencies.