Estimation in semiparametric models using an auxiliary model

Two classes of semiparametric and nonparametric mixture models are defined to represent general kinds of prior information. For these models the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) of an unknown probability distribution is derived and is shown to be consistent and relative efficient. Linear functionals are used for the estimation of parameters. Their consistency is proved, the gain of efficiency is derived and asymptotical distributions are given.     

Opting out of publicly provided services: A majority voting result

Our objective in this paper is to examine majority voting in an environment where both public and private alternatives coexist. We construct a model in which households are differentiated by income and have the option of choosing between publicly provided services and private services. Publicly provided services are financed through income tax revenues and made available to all citizens at zero price. Majority voting determines the tax rate. Even though preferences over tax rates are not single peaked, we provide conditions under which a majority voting equilibrium exists. We illustrate our existence result with CES preferences and a Dagum income distribution. Received: 21 December 1993 / Accepted: 2 September 1996     

Simultaneous Small Sample Inference for Linear Combinations of Generalized Linear Model Parameters

A method is proposed to construct simultaneous confidence intervals for multiple linear combinations of generalized linear model parameters, that uses a multivariate normal- or t-distribution together with the signed likelihood root statistic. In an application to a case study simultaneous confidence bands for logistic regression are calculated. A simulation study based on the example evaluation suggests superior performance compared to the common Wald-type approaches. The proposed methods are readily implemented in the R extension package mcprofile.     

Compliance check of gambler and youth protection in German amusement arcades: a pilot study

German gambling operators are required to identify problem gamblers at an early stage and exclude them from gambling on their premises. The main aim of this pilot study was to investigate the compliance of staff in Bremen’s amusement arcades. While visiting 29 of 111 amusement arcades, covert gamblers simulated signs of problematic gambling behaviour, arranged self-exclusions, monitored observance of the exclusion list and made fieldnotes about the staff’s reactions. The application of age checks was also tested. The findings showed that only in six cases (5%) did the staff adequately respond to evident signs of problematic gambling behaviour. Although 18 of 29 cases (62%) eventually resulted in self-exclusions or ban-like agreements, in some instances it was necessary to overcome major obstacles that emanated from the staff’s behaviour. During 15 subsequent follow-up visits, 13 banned mystery gamblers (87%) had no problems gambling on amusement-with-prizes (AWP) machines. Finally, just 26% of the 20- to 25-year-old mystery gamblers had their ID checked. The results indicate the necessity of regular external evaluations regarding the implementation of gambling harm-minimization measures in order to identify any shortcomings. In addition, the level of staff compliance may be increased by amending current legislation (e.g. by introducing a nationwide self-exclusion programme).     

More Like Us: The Effect of Immigrant Generation on College Success in Mathematics

This article investigates the impact of immigrant generation on students performance in college calculus courses and examines the extent to which the observed patterns corroborate or contradict various assimilation theories. It goes beyond past studies of the relationship between immigrant generation and mathematics achievement that focused primarily on middle and high school students and typically excluded foreign students. Our principal finding is that foreign students and the 1.25 generation earned the highest grades, on average, even after controlling for race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status. Our findings provide partial support for the immigrant advantage theory.     

A MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ENERGY SUBSIDIES IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY

We construct a dynamic model of a small open economy to analyze the effects of large energy subsidies. The model includes domestic energy production and consumption, trade in energy at world market prices, as well as private and public sector production. The model is calibrated to Egypt and used to study reforms such as reductions in energy subsidies with corresponding reductions in various tax instruments or increases in infrastructure investment. We calculate the new steady states, transition paths to the new steady state, and the size of the associated welfare losses or gains. Our main results for a 15% cut in energy subsidies are: (1) Steady state gross domestic product drops in most of our experiments as less energy is used in production. (2) Steady state consumption rises in most of our experiments. (3) Welfare can rise by as much as 0.6% in consumption equivalent terms. (4) The largest gains in terms of output and of welfare can be obtained when savings from energy subsidy cuts are used to fund additional infrastructure investment. (JEL E21, E63, H55, J26, J45)     

Income Protection Through Direct Employment Programmes: Recent Concepts and Examples from Latin America

The risk of unemployment in Latin America is high. Unemployment insurance exists only in a few countries; coverage is small, and virtually non-existent in the informal economy. For this reason social protection policies for unemployed workers, defined in the broad sense, have addressed and strengthened the role of direct employment programmes and assistance through cash subsidies. This article describes the main features (financing and administration) of direct employment programmes in the region and their objectives, and evaluates their functioning in terms of targets and coverage, costs and impact. Available studies show that the net direct impact of such programmes on unemployment rates and on beneficiaries' incomes is in most cases relatively low. Nevertheless, in some cases they have helped to lower levels of unemployment and poverty, and have indirect positive effects that are more difficult to measure, such as incentives to economic recovery resulting from the chain effect on consumption of beneficiaries buying goods. For this reason direct employment programmes remain a fully valid mechanism, especially in social emergencies.     

The survival of newly founded firms: a case-study into varying-coefficient models

Summary.  The success of a newly founded firm depends on various initial risk factors or start-up conditions such as the market that the business is aiming for, the experience and the age of the founder, the preparation before the launch, the financial frame and the legal form of the firm. These risk factors determine the chance of survival for the venture. However, the effects of these risk factors may change with time. Some effects may vanish whereas others remain constant. We analyse the survival of 1123 newly founded firms in the state of Bavaria, Germany. Our focus is on the investigation of time variation in the effects of risk factors. Time variation is tackled within the framework of varying-coefficient models, where time smoothly modifies the effects of risk factors. An important issue in our analysis is the separation of risk factors which have time-varying effects from those which have time constant effects. We make use of the Akaike criterion to separate these two types of risk factor.