A possibilistic hierarchical model for behaviour under uncertainty

Hierarchical models are commonly used for modelling uncertainty. They arise whenever there is a `correct' or `ideal' uncertainty model but the modeller is uncertain about what it is. Hierarchical models which involve probability distributions are widely used in Bayesian inference. Alternative models which involve possibility distributions have been proposed by several authors, but these models do not have a clear operational meaning. This paper describes a new hierarchical model which is mathematically equivalent to some of the earlier, possibilistic models and also has a simple behavioural interpretation, in terms of betting rates concerning whether or not a decision maker will agree to buy or sell a risky investment for a specified price. We give a representation theorem which shows that any consistent model of this kind can be interpreted as a model for uncertainty about the behaviour of a Bayesian decision maker. We describe how the model can be used to generate buying and selling prices and to make decisions.     

Urban Land Changes as the Interaction Between Self-Organization and Institutions

There is interest among planners in autonomous behaviour and non-linear processes supporting urban development. Self-organization has attracted attention as a potential driver for urban transformations. This paper aims to explore the mechanisms behind urban land use patterns resulting from the interdependence of self-organization and institutions. Our argument is based on an empirical study of two land development cases in urban Beijing. The paper argues that urban land transformations include characteristics of symmetry breaks, self-organizing processes, unintended collective behaviour and spontaneous patterns while simultaneously being institutionally framed. The interdependence between self-organization and institutional rules builds upon a circular causality framework at various spatial levels.     

Fast and robust bootstrap

In this paper we review recent developments on a bootstrap method for robust estimators which is computationally faster and more resistant to outliers than the classical bootstrap. This fast and robust bootstrap method is, under reasonable regularity conditions, asymptotically consistent. We describe the method in general and then consider its application to perform inference based on robust estimators for the linear regression and multivariate location-scatter models. In particular, we study confidence and prediction intervals and tests of hypotheses for linear regression models, inference for location-scatter parameters and principal components, and classification error estimation for discriminant analysis.     

Paretos hermeneutischer Positivismus

An analysis of Pareto’s action theory making use of practical syllogism has as a result the differentiation of an externalist and an internalist part of his model of action. The externalist part is positivist in character and therefore unacceptable. It contains two classical positivist positions: a strict demarcation between metaphysics and science and the conspiracy-theory of error. Both were rightly criticised by Karl Popper. The internalist part contains the principle “reasons as causes”, which was later made famous by Donald Davidson. In comparison with Max Weber it will be shown that this is the rationality principle of interpretative sociology. Bringing internalist and externalist perspective together Pareto’s position can be called hermeneutical positivism. The article describes an hitherto neglected effect of positivist epistemology on sociology, and specifies action-theoretical fundaments of interpretative and explanative sociology.     

Nonprofit Governance Quality: Concept and Measurement

ABSTRACT

A nonprofit “governance quality index” was developed to enable verification and falsification of contemporary theoretical insights on social service organizations. Indicators were generated based on an extensive qualitative exploration. For the quantitative validation, a data set was composed of 526 respondents from 52 organizations. Five subdimensions of governance quality are introduced and are recommended to be used as separate scales, rather than combined into a single score on governance quality. Furthermore, the recommendation is made to rely on multiple raters per organization to assess governance quality or related concepts, given the substantial within-organization variance found.     

Connecting entrepreneurship with policy experimentation? The EU framework for social innovation

This article investigates how “social innovation” made its way onto the European Union (EU) agenda and how this notion has been creatively used to advance distinct policy goals. It does so by analysing the resources the EU provided to promote social innovation over the period 2006–2014. Three main conclusions arise. First, between 2006 and 2010 the label social innovation was rarely used, although several EU instruments and processes supported it. Second, throughout 2009–2010, the European Commission’s Bureau of European Policy Advisers played a key agenda setting role in flagging social innovation on the eve of the Europe 2020 Strategy. Consequently, and third, since 2010 social innovation has been explicitly mainstreamed into the EUs new growth strategy. This phase is characterized by a stronger emphasis on “social entrepreneurship” and “social experimentation”. As a result, social innovation has become an important tool in the European Semester’s focus on the reform of the welfare state.     

The Role of Affect in Attitude Formation toward New Technologies: The Case of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection

This article analyzes determinants of technology acceptance and their interdependence. It highlights the role of affect in attitude formation toward new technologies and examines how it mediates the influence of stable psychological variables on the technology's acceptability. Based on theory and previous empirical evidence, we develop an analytical framework of attitude formation. We test this framework using survey data on attitudes toward stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), a technology that could be used to counteract global warming. We show that affect is more important than risk and benefit perception in forming judgment about SAI. Negative and positive affect directly alter the perception of risks and benefits of SAI and its acceptability. Furthermore, affect is an important mediator between stable psychological variables—such as trust in governmental institutions, values, and attitudes—and acceptability. A person's affective response is thus guided by her general attitudes and values.     

Religion,Crime, and Social Trust in Historic Germany: Are Catholics More Inclined to Violate Social Norms than Protestants?

Are Catholics more inclined to violate social norms than Protestants? A tentative answer is yes due to this confession's attitude towards absolution of sins. Opportunities existed for Christians around Reformation times, for example as sales of indulgences. Catholics and Protestants arguably differed historically in their understanding of whether penitence is feasible or not, resulting in different conditions under which Catholics and Protestants decide in situations of social exchange. This is illustrated by ethical game theory and exemplified by historical data. The analysis points to the tentative suggestion that religious socialisation can affect social payoffs of crime and social trust in a long-term perspective.