Multiple Public Service Performance Indicators: Toward an Integrated Statistical Approach

Public service organizations usually produce multiple outputs,measured on different scales, giving rise to a suite of performanceindicators. The traditional approach to statistical analysisof organizational performance has been to develop a separateregression model for each performance indicator. This piecemealapproach, the article argues, may discard valuable information,as it ignores potentially important relationships between individualperformance measures. We therefore propose modeling an organization'sperformance measures simultaneously, using the methods of seeminglyunrelated regressions. The approach implicitly introduces alatent organizational variable into the regressions and maytherefore economize on the need to assemble explicit measuresof organizational characteristics. The method is illustratedusing an example from English public hospitals.     

A scientist's viewpoint on promoting effective use of experimental design: Ten things a scientist wants to know about experimental design

This paper tackles the practical application of statistical tools. Chemical development is a rich area for collaboration between statisticians and chemists, but most statisticians encounter difficulties in promoting the tools to this client group. This paper, presented from a chemist's perspective, is intended to help bridge the gap between the two professions. The paper explores differences in uptake and attitudes towards adopting these techniques and suggests what has hindered or helped the process of effective application of experimental design. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cost containment in health care: a model for management research.

Cost containment is a dominant problem in the health care field, but it has not been addressed from a comprehensive management perspective. To fill this gap, we have developed an inclusive model of the cost containment process. The model has implications for management research in several areas: cost containment baselines, incentive systems, organization structures, cost/quality trade-offs, and cost containment constraints.     

Will oil markets tighten again? A survey of policies to manage possible oil supply disruptions

The effects of an oil supply disruption on the U.S. economy are analyzed along with the various policy options. Part of the analysis is based on a computerized model of the U.S. economy and the world oil market. Micro as well as macroeconomic issues are considered. The paper argues against the use of price controls and allocations and also against a disruption tariff used as a stand-alone measure. It advocates the use of some stabilizing macroeconomic measures and a temporary producer tax similar to the windfall profits tax.     

Consideration of Background Exposures in the Management of Hazardous Waste Sites: A New Approach to Risk Assessment

The current approach to health risk assessment of toxic waste sites in the U.S. may lead to considerable expenditure of resources without any meaningful reduction in population exposure. Risk assessment methods used generally ignore background exposures and consider only incremental risk estimates for maximally exposed individuals. Such risk estimates do not address true public health risks to which background exposures also contribute. The purpose of this paper is to recommend a new approach to risk assessment and risk management concerning toxic waste sites. Under this new approach, which we have called public health risk assessment, chemical substances would be classified into a level of concern based on the potential health risks associated with typical national and regional background exposures. Site assessment would then be based on the level of concern for the particular pollutants involved and the potential contribution of site contaminants to typical background human exposures. While various problems can be foreseen with this approach, the key advantage is that resources would be allocated to reduce the most important sources of human exposure, and site remediation decisions could be simplified by focussing on exposure assessment rather than questionable risk extrapolations.     

Small-sample results for maximum-likelihood estimation in branching processes

In this article, small sample properties of the maximum-likelihood estimator (m.l.e.) for the offspring distribution (pk) and its mean m are considered in the context of the simple branching process. A representation theorem is given for the m.l.e. of (Pk) from which the m.l.e. of m is obtained. The case where p0 + p1 + p2 = 1 is studied in detail: numerical results are given for the exact bias of these estimators as a function of the age of the process; a curve fitting analysis expresses the bias of m? as a function of the mean and the variance of the offspring distribution and finally an “approximate m.l.e.” for (pk) is given.