SOME ASPECTS OF THE DYNAMIC PROPERTIES OF ECONOMETRIC MODELS*

Recent efforts by several authors have resulted in the development of techniques for analytically describing the dynamic properties of linear stochastic difference equation models ¹ 1 For examples of this work see Chow [1]; Chow and Levitan [2] [3]; Howrey [8] [9]; Howrey and Kelejian [10] and Howrey and Klein [11].
. Since these techniques have not been extensively applied to econometric models and consequently are not generally familiar to economic modelers, the purpose of this paper is to summarize the techniques these researchers have developed and to illustrate them using a simple (and admittedly unrealistic) econometric model.     

Global Warming Risk Perceptions in India

Few studies have focused on global warming risk perceptions among people in poor and developing countries, who are disproportionately impacted by climate change. This analysis conducts a comprehensive assessment of global warming risk perceptions in India using a national sample survey. Consistent with cultural theory, egalitarianism was positively associated with global warming risk perceptions. In addition, perceived vulnerability and resilience to extreme weather events were also two of the strongest factors associated with global warming risk perceptions. While worry was positively associated with risk perceptions, it accounted for only a small proportion of the variance, unlike studies in developed countries. Finally, the study also collected global warming affective images. The most common responses were “don't know” or “can't say” (25%), followed by “pollution” (21%), “heat” (20%), and “nature” (16%). The study finds that the predictors of global warming risk perceptions among the Indian public are both similar and different than those in developed countries, which has important implications for climate change communication in India.     

Some characteristics of moral problems in evaluation practice

In order to understand better the nature of moral problems in evaluation, an actual incident from evaluation practice is examined. Based on the incident, six characteristics of moral problems are identified and briefly discussed. The types of research needed on moral aspects of evaluation practice are presented, and ways in which the evaluation profession can aid practitioners in dealing with moral problems are outlined.     

Efficient generation of random variates via the ratio-of-uniforms method

Improvements to the conventional ratio-of-uniforms method for random variate generation are proposed. A generalized radio-of-uniforms method is introduced, and it is demonstrated that relocation of the required density via the mode can greatly improve the computational efficiency of the method. We describe a multivariate version of the basic method and summarize a general strategy for efficient ratio-of-uniforms generation. Illustrative examples are given.     

"NO WEAPON SAVE ARGUMENT":

US. woman suffragists routinely utilized two types of arguments in their demands for voting rights: justice and reform. The former argument held that women should vote because they were men's equals and therefore should have political rights equal to those of men. Reform arguments stated that women should have the ballot because women, given their unique womanly experiences and perspectives, would bring a unique contribution to politics, making society a more humane place. Although social movement scholars have increasingly studied the framing work of movement activists, few systematic studies of framing activity exist. In this work we examine the circumstances that led the suffragists to amplify one or the other of these motivational frames. We find that the suffragists were quite strategic in their choice of frames, targeting particular audiences and taking advantage of cultural opportunities for frame resonance. We find only limited evidence that their frames were driven by the collective identity of particular groups in the movement.     

Cardiac measures of stress in British prison officers

This paper considers the experience of stress in British prison officers and in particular the physiological effect of work activity on those individuals. It reviews the evidence provided by some international studies as well as the recent occupational mortality statistics produced by the OPCS (1986). In particular, the paper concentrates on the benefits of using ambulatory measures of heart rate as a measure of stress and illustrates this with the initial data of a study carried out at HM Prison, Gartree. Results are described in terms of mean heart rate by time and by work activity.     

An investigation of youths' attributions for unemployment and their political attitudes

This study investigated some hypotheses concerning the determinants of attributions for unemployment and the psychological consequences of unemployment in a randomly selected sample of 204 male school leavers. There was weak evidence for the hypothesis that the unemployed make more external attributions for unemployment, but none showing them to make less internal attributions. There was weak evidence that political party preference was related to internal and external attributions, and stronger evidence that a general tendency to see life as determined by chance was linked to external attributions. The unemployed were found to be more likely to support violent political action, to support the Labour Party, and to believe chance controlled their lives. Finally, external attributions were seen as more important than internal ones by all respondents. The results suggest that other factors, e.g. the mass media, may be influential in determining the nature of attributions and this is interpreted in the context of Moscovici's social representation theory.