Anna Karenina and the two envelopes problem

The Anna Karenina principle is named after the opening sentence in the eponymous novel: Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way. The two envelopes problem (TEP) is a much-studied paradox in probability theory, mathematical economics, logic and philosophy. Time and again a new analysis is published in which an author claims finally to explain what actually goes wrong in this paradox. Each author (the present author included) emphasises what is new in their approach and concludes that earlier approaches did not get to the root of the matter. We observe that though a logical argument is only correct if every step is correct, an apparently logical argument which goes astray can be thought of as going astray at different places. This leads to a comparison between the literature on TEP and a successful movie franchise: it generates a succession of sequels, and even prequels, each with a different director who approaches the same basic premise in a personal way. We survey resolutions in the literature with a view to synthesis, correct common errors, and give a new theorem on order properties of an exchangeable pair of random variables, at the heart of most TEP variants and interpretations. A theorem on asymptotic independence between the amount in your envelope and the question whether it is smaller or larger shows that the pathological situation of improper priors or infinite expectation values has consequences as we merely approach such a situation.     

The myth of transition: contractualizing disability in the sheltered workshop

This paper investigates notions of transition and independence, as well as the current circumstances that detain countless disabled people in employment endeavors that not only pay meager wages but also cement a lifelong servitude to the workshop. Sheltered workshops exist on the basis and replication of a structure that incarcerates disabled people within vocational-like settings. This paper begins a discussion of the social contract that occurs between the disabled person in the workshop. The workshop is no longer a place of societal liberation that affords the individual the opportunity to learn vocational skills, but rather it has become an institution that creates its own army of workers that will forever be subjected to a life in the workshop because of their disability status.     

Maximum likelihood estimation in generalized broken‐line regression

The author examines the existence, uniqueness, and identifiability of estimators produced by maximum likelihood for a model where the canonical parameter of an exponential family gradually begins to drift from its initial value at an unknown change point. He illustrates these properties with theoretical examples and applies his results to global warming data and failure data for emergency diesel generators.     

Assessing the treatment effect in a randomized controlled trial with extensive non‐adherence: the EVOLVE trial

Intention‐to‐treat (ITT) analysis is widely used to establish efficacy in randomized clinical trials. However, in a long‐term outcomes study where non‐adherence to study drug is substantial, the on‐treatment effect of the study drug may be underestimated using the ITT analysis. The analyses presented herein are from the EVOLVE trial, a double‐blind, placebo‐controlled, event‐driven cardiovascular outcomes study conducted to assess whether a treatment regimen including cinacalcet compared with placebo in addition to other conventional therapies reduces the risk of mortality and major cardiovascular events in patients receiving hemodialysis with secondary hyperparathyroidism. Pre‐specified sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the impact of non‐adherence on the estimated effect of cinacalcet. These analyses included lag‐censoring, inverse probability of censoring weights (IPCW), rank preserving structural failure time model (RPSFTM) and iterative parameter estimation (IPE). The relative hazard (cinacalcet versus placebo) of mortality and major cardiovascular events was 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.85, 1.02) using the ITT analysis; 0.85 (0.76, 0.95) using lag‐censoring analysis; 0.81 (0.70, 0.92) using IPCW; 0.85 (0.66, 1.04) using RPSFTM and 0.85 (0.75, 0.96) using IPE. These analyses, while not providing definitive evidence, suggest that the intervention may have an effect while subjects are receiving treatment. The ITT method remains the established method to evaluate efficacy of a new treatment; however, additional analyses should be considered to assess the on‐treatment effect when substantial non‐adherence to study drug is expected or observed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

TANF Participation Rates: Do Community Conditions Matter?*

Abstract A general criticism of the 1996 Welfare Reform Act is that it is primarily the result of an urban political agenda, and it may hurt rather than help the rural poor. Under the new welfare system, the rural poor that are most likely to be affected are those who live in socially, economically, and spatially disadvantaged communities. More residents in these communities are likely to need TANF, clients in these communities are least likely to leave TANF by finding employment, and community organizations are likely to have more limited resources to help TANF recipients. The objective of this study is to examine the extent to which variations in community conditions account for differences in TANF participation rates. Using 1997 TANF data from the Mississippi Department of Human Services, we estimated OLS regression models of local TANF participation rates across 100 communities in nonmetro counties. The results indicate that TANF participation rates tend to be higher in communities with high concentrations of African Americans, less faith‐based activeness, more employment in retail trade, spatial concentration of the poor, and located in the Delta.     

Ethics,human rights and sociological inquiry: Genocide,politicide and other issues of organizational power

This paper introduces a human rights (in contrast to an ethicist) perspective into sociological investigation. Moreover, it indicates why a human rights orientation is necessary for examining genocide, politicide and other issues of organizational power. For years he has been concerned with the sociology of ethics, human rights and bureaucracy. Her research focuses on formal organizations, criminology/deviance, family life and medical sociology. Her primary interests are race and ethnic relations, family life and social psychology. Her interests include formal organizations, American studies and autobiography.