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排序方式: 共有115条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Laurent Gardes Stéphane Girard Gilles Stupfler 《Scandinavian Journal of Statistics》2020,47(3):922-949
The conditional tail expectation (CTE) is an indicator of tail behavior that takes into account both the frequency and magnitude of a tail event. However, the asymptotic normality of its empirical estimator requires that the underlying distribution possess a finite variance; this can be a strong restriction in actuarial and financial applications. A valuable alternative is the median shortfall (MS), although it only gives information about the frequency of a tail event. We construct a class of tail Lp-medians encompassing the MS and CTE. For p in (1,2), a tail Lp-median depends on both the frequency and magnitude of tail events, and its empirical estimator is, within the range of the data, asymptotically normal under a condition weaker than a finite variance. We extrapolate this estimator and another technique to extreme levels using the heavy-tailed framework. The estimators are showcased on a simulation study and on real fire insurance data. 相似文献
2.
Marie Thibaud Frédéric Bloch Caroline Tournoux-Facon Cyril Brèque Anne Sophie Rigaud Beno?t Dugué Gilles Kemoun 《European review of aging and physical activity》2012,9(1):5-15
The objective of this work was to summarise and evaluate the evidence showing that physical activity is a protector factor as regards falls in older people. Relevant studies were identified through a systematic search in the MEDLINE and Cochrane Library, under the keywords of accidental fall/numerical data and risk factors, and with the bibliographies of retrieved papers. The combined odds ratio (OR) [95% confidence interval] for physical activity was 0.75 [0.64, 0.88] with moderate heterogeneity (I 2?=?33%). For fall injury, it was 0.59 [0.47, 0.74] and, for falls in general, it rose to 0.94 [0.76, 1.17] with nil heterogeneity. The combined OR for sedentary factors was 1.14 [1.10, 1.82] with moderate heterogeneity (I 2?=?36%). Regular physical activity in daily life yields significant reduction in falls in older people, especially falls with injuries. 相似文献
3.
Based on a simple theoretical framework, we show that when individuals exhibit positional, prosocial or conformist preferences which are endogenous, the end outcomes in terms of private provision of public goods can differ significantly from traditional neo-classical predictions. Indeed, when a given individual selects a specific subset of preferences according to what others do, he/she will contribute positively to the public good provision. We provide anecdotal evidence to support our theoretical analysis by using data from an Internet survey on a sample of French individuals. Analyses of individual responses confirm our theoretical arguments. For instance, we show that relative concerns matter, that is, for several environmental goods, people might prefer polluting more in absolute terms but less than others in society. Moreover, we also test whether people exhibit a social desirability bias and show that they attribute more (less) positional (prosocial) concerns to others in society. 相似文献
4.
Stéphane Helleringer Gilles Pison Almamy M. Kanté Géraldine Duthé Armelle Andro 《Demography》2014,51(2):387-411
Estimates of adult mortality in countries with limited vital registration (e.g., sub-Saharan Africa) are often derived from information about the survival of a respondent’s siblings. We evaluated the completeness and accuracy of such data through a record linkage study conducted in Bandafassi, located in southeastern Senegal. We linked at the individual level retrospective siblings’ survival histories (SSH) reported by female respondents (n = 268) to prospective mortality data and genealogies collected through a health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS). Respondents often reported inaccurate lists of siblings. Additions to these lists were uncommon, but omissions were frequent: respondents omitted 3.8 % of their live sisters, 9.1 % of their deceased sisters, and 16.6 % of their sisters who had migrated out of the DSS area. Respondents underestimated the age at death of the siblings they reported during the interview, particularly among siblings who had died at older ages (≥45 years). Restricting SSH data to person-years and events having occurred during a recent reference period reduced list errors but not age and date errors. Overall, SSH data led to a 20 % underestimate of 45 q 15 relative to HDSS data. Our study suggests new quality improvement strategies for SSH data and demonstrates the potential use of HDSS data for the validation of “unconventional” demographic techniques. 相似文献
5.
Marie‐Claude Salvas Frank Vitaro Mara Brendgen Éric Lacourse Michel Boivin Richard E. Tremblay 《Social Development》2011,20(4):645-663
The aim of this study was to investigate the unique and combined role of friendship quality and friends' aggression in regard to the persistence of young children's physical aggression from kindergarten to grade 2. The sample included 1555 children (808 girls) assessed annually using teacher ratings. Two theoretical perspectives (i.e., the social learning and the social bonding perspectives) served as frameworks to guide the analyses and interpret the results. In line with the social learning perspective, friends' aggression was related to a significant increase in children's physical aggression. However, in line with the social bonding perspective, good friendship quality played both a compensatory and a protective role, by, respectively, reducing children's initial level of physical aggression and by mitigating, albeit marginally, the associations between friends' and children's physical aggression. These results suggest that fostering a positive relationship between friends in the early school years may decrease physical aggression even if the friends are aggressive. 相似文献
6.
Frédéric Dussault Mara Brendgen Frank Vitaro René Carbonneau Michel Boivin Richard E. Tremblay 《Journal of gambling studies / co-sponsored by the National Council on Problem Gambling and Institute for the Study of Gambling and Commercial Gaming》2016,32(2):547-565
In both adolescents and adults, gambling problems and depressive symptoms co-occur and share some common risk factors (e.g., impulsivity and socio-family risk). However, little is known about (1) the developmental course of the co-morbidity of these problems; (2) variables that may moderate the effect of these common risk factors on gambling problems and depressive symptoms. Of specific interest could be individuals’ social relationships with significant others such as parents and friends, because research shows that they moderate the effect of other risk factors on gambling problems and depressive symptoms. The goals of this study were to: (a) identify developmental pathways for gambling problems and depressive symptoms, with a focus on co-morbidity; (b) assess the moderating effect of relationship quality with parents and friends on the link between common risk factors and the trajectories of gambling problems and depressive symptoms. Study participants were 878 males. Predictors were assessed during childhood and adolescence and gambling problems and depressive symptoms were assessed in late adolescence and young adulthood. Latent class analysis revealed four distinct joint trajectories of gambling problems and depressive symptoms. Subsequent logistic regression revealed that impulsivity predicted membership in all pathogenic trajectories, and quality of the relationship with parents predicted membership in depressogenic trajectories. In addition, we found that the membership in the comorbid trajectory can be predicted by an interaction between friendship quality and socio-family risk. 相似文献
7.
The twinning rate has increased dramatically over the last four decades in developed countries. Two main factors account for this increase: delayed childbearing, as older women tend to have twins more frequently than younger ones, and the expansion of medically assisted reproduction (MAR), which carries an increased probability of multiple births. Using civil registration data, we estimate the share of the increase in twinning rates attributable to the rise in the age at childbearing and to MAR. The effect of MAR is estimated to be about three times as important as the effect of delayed childbearing. Negative health outcomes associated with multiple births and the cost of MAR have raised concerns. We find that in one‐quarter of developed countries with the relevant data, the twinning rate reached a plateau around the early 2000s and decreased thereafter. We examine the reasons for this reversal, in particular changes in MAR policies and practices. 相似文献
8.
Claire Allard‐Dansereau Martine Hbert Caroline Tremblay Anne‐Claude Bernard‐Bonnin 《Child Abuse Review》2001,10(3):210-222
This study examined maternal perceptions of their child's response to the medical evaluation for alleged sexual abuse. A total of 50 mothers were interviewed 6 months after a visit to a Child Protection Clinic for a medical evaluation of alleged sexual abuse. The mothers answered a questionnaire on their child's reactions to the medical visit. More than 60% of children were perceived as being reassured about physical integrity. The degree of psychological distress was independent of perpetrator's identity and severity of the abuse. Mothers considered that a hypothetical second visit would generate in their child a level of anxiety that increased with perceived intensity of fear of the examination and decreased with perceived kindness of the physician. These results suggest that the physician's behaviour during the medical evaluation for alleged sexual abuse has an influence on the child's degree of distress that is independent of type and severity of abuse. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
9.
Vitaro F Wanner B Ladouceur R Brendgen M Tremblay RE 《Journal of gambling studies / co-sponsored by the National Council on Problem Gambling and Institute for the Study of Gambling and Commercial Gaming》2004,20(1):47-69
This study aimed at empirically identifying groups of adolescents with distinct longitudinal trajectories of gambling involvement and validating these groups by comparing them with respect to correlates. 903 low SES boys were followed annually from age 11 to 16 years. Three groups were found: an early-onset high-level chronic group, a late-onset high-level group, and a low gambler group. The Chronic group and the Low group consistently differed on teacher-rated inhibition (i.e., anxiety) during childhood and early adolescence. They also differed on concurrent teacher and self ratings of disinhibition (i.e., impulsivity), while the Late Onset group appeared to lie in between these groups. Compared to the Low group, both high groups subsequently had elevated scores on later gambling related problems. 相似文献
10.
Gilles MarionAuthor vitae 《European Management Journal》1998,16(6):660-671
The new organisational form of large corporations (horizontal organisation), is affecting the communications job. This corporate transformation leads to new challenges for the corporate communications manager and his team. On the one hand, he has to develop a fully integrated strategy which enables the different forms of communication to contribute to the success of the firm's mission (a common goal). On the other hand, he has to provide small business units, led by strong front-line managers, with professional services. The analysis of several companies will show that the position of the corporate communications department is subject to various pressures and that the development of the `communications function' is calling into question the corporate communications manager's `profession'. 相似文献