Bayesian inference for a partially observed birth–death process using data on proportions

Stochastic kinetic models are often used to describe complex biological processes. Typically these models are analytically intractable and have unknown parameters which need to be estimated from observed data. Ideally we would have measurements on all interacting chemical species in the process, observed continuously in time. However, in practice, measurements are taken only at a relatively few time‐points. In some situations, only very limited observation of the process is available, for example settings in which experimenters can only observe noisy observations on the proportion of cells that are alive. This makes the inference task even more problematic. We consider a range of data‐poor scenarios and investigate the performance of various computationally intensive Bayesian algorithms in determining the posterior distribution using data on proportions from a simple birth‐death process.     

They Just Do Not Vote Like They Used To: A Methodology to Empirically Assess Election Fraud*

Objectives. In contemporary U.S. elections there is no shortage of allegations concerning election fraud. These claims are, however, based in large part on anecdotal evidence, unsubstantiated assertions, or the study of reported complaints. The absence of a general methodology to actively search for evidence of election fraud has resulted in policy arguments devoid of empirical data and systematic analyses. Methods. In this article, we present a general methodology to study contemporary election fraud based on the Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) process. We then apply this approach to a case study of a particular type of fraud. Results. After examining approximately 2.1 million votes cast during the 2006 general election in Georgia, we find no evidence that election fraud was committed under the auspices of deceased registrants. Conclusion. In this article, we have introduced a general methodology for the scientific study of election fraud. We urge social scientists to make use of such a framework to investigate the prevalence of different types of fraud across varying election cycles and jurisdictions.     

The Phenomenon Of The Public Wife: An Exercise In Goffman's Impression Management*

Approaching the topic of American leader-image from the perspective of politics-as-theater (political communication as exchange of symbols), this paper examines a taken-for-granted visual symbol which a national political leader is invariably expected to present: a wife. Her contributions to her husband's “impression management” techniques (Goffman, 1959) are studied in Goffman's “defensive” categories of dramaturgical loyalty, dramaturgical discipline, and dramaturgical circumspection. This analysis suggests that the visible presence of a wife in public leadership rituals offers the public voter or viewer important reassurances or symbolic guarantees about her husband's “morality”—and, therefore, his appropriateness for public trust. She has become a necessary partof his public performance because of our everyday need for “cultural absolutes” (Furay, 1977) in the image of our leadership figures.     

Revolutionizing the Social Work Curriculum

The social work literature provides ample evidence of the use of the systems paradigm and concepts. However, system ideas serve primarily as a sensitizing tool, suggesting important environmental factors but not describing precisely the links between them. Social work's failure to take the next logical step, to develop systems models, constrains practitioners’ understanding and ability to intervene. The authors describe system dynamics modeling and its benefits. Educating students in system dynamics modeling can improve social work interventions in the complex situations faced by practitioners.     

A test of the Maslach Burnout Inventory in three samples of healthcare professionals

Structural equation modelling with LISREL was used to investigate the factor structure of the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI). Emotional exhaustion was the most robust of the MBI's three factors, followed by depersonalization, while the personal accomplishment factor performed weakly. A new measurement model was developed in a sample of 197 nurses consisting of the emotional exhaustion and depersonalization dimensions, which were measured with five and two empirical MBI indicators, respectively. A test of invariance of the two-factor model across three samples (i.e. one calibration sample of nurses, and two validation samples consisting of hospital laboratory technicians and hospital managers with an effective sample size of 445) produced a good fit for the proposed two-factor model. Assessment of psychometric properties of the two-factor model produced (1) internal consistencies comparable to those reported in the literature for the MBI's originally specified emotional exhaustion and depersonalization scales, and (2) correlations with criterion variables that were all in the expected direction and magnitude, comparable to those produced by the originally specified scales. Theoretical implications for the use of the two-factor model in burnout research are discussed.