Using Bayesian analysis in repeated preclinical in vivo studies for a more effective use of animals

Whilst innovative Bayesian approaches are increasingly used in clinical studies, in the preclinical area Bayesian methods appear to be rarely used in the reporting of pharmacology data. This is particularly surprising in the context of regularly repeated in vivo studies where there is a considerable amount of data from historical control groups, which has potential value. This paper describes our experience with introducing Bayesian analysis for such studies using a Bayesian meta‐analytic predictive approach. This leads naturally either to an informative prior for a control group as part of a full Bayesian analysis of the next study or using a predictive distribution to replace a control group entirely. We use quality control charts to illustrate study‐to‐study variation to the scientists and describe informative priors in terms of their approximate effective numbers of animals. We describe two case studies of animal models: the lipopolysaccharide‐induced cytokine release model used in inflammation and the novel object recognition model used to screen cognitive enhancers, both of which show the advantage of a Bayesian approach over the standard frequentist analysis. We conclude that using Bayesian methods in stable repeated in vivo studies can result in a more effective use of animals, either by reducing the total number of animals used or by increasing the precision of key treatment differences. This will lead to clearer results and supports the “3Rs initiative” to Refine, Reduce and Replace animals in research. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Will You Still Need Me,Will You Still Feed Me?—Paying for Care in Old Age

A major issue for social policy in the twenty-first century will be providing good-quality support and care for older people. However, recent debate about this has been driven more by ideology than by evidence. This paper examines the socio-economic, demographic and policy changes that are influencing the debate, and outlines findings from current research on attitudes towards financial planning for care in old age. This shows that the majority of people feel that the state should provide or pay for care for older people, either through a means-tested system or one which provides some basic level of protection which people can choose to enhance through their own means. However, only a minority would be willing to pay themselves for this, either directly through increased taxation or indirectly through reduced prospects of inheritance of housing capital. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of these findings.     

Sensitivity to “Bad Genes” and the Anomalous Face Overgeneralization Effect: Cue Validity, Cue Utilization, and Accuracy in Judging Intelligence and Health

The bad genes and anomalous face overgeneralization accounts of facial preferences were tested by examining cue validity, cue utilization, and accuracy in judging health and intelligence from faces in the upper and lower halves of the distributions of attractiveness and its components: averageness, symmetry, and masculinity. Consistent with the bad genes hypothesis, facial attractiveness, averageness, symmetry, and male face masculinity each provided valid cues to intelligence and/or health for faces in the lower but not the upper halves of the distributions of these facial qualities. Consistent with the anomalous face overgeneralization hypothesis, attractiveness and its components were utilized as cues not only for faces in the lower halves of the distributions, but also for those in the upper halves. Intelligence and health were judged accurately for faces in the lower but not the upper half of the attractiveness distribution, and attractiveness mediated this accuracy at all ages except adolescence. Since adolescence is the prime mating age, the latter finding raises questions about the utility of attractiveness as an evolved mechanism to ensure the selection of high quality mates.     

Confessions of a Jobbing Researcher

The relationship between research and policy making is complex and not always direct. This paper describes disability-related research for policy makers which is carried out at the Social Policy Research Unit (SPRU), University of York. A distinction between the ways in which research is formed and the ways in which it is informed is made. The informing of research influences how it is carried out; the research questions themselves, the choice of design and methods, the form of analysis, and the pattern of dissemination. The seminar series has helped SPRU reappraise its disability-related research. Disabled people must be able to influence the framing and elaboration of research questions more directly; there must be an increased commitment to employing and to training disabled researchers; dissemination must be wider; 'crucial gateways' to policy makers and practitioners have to be identified; and the debate on informal care must be moved further on.     

Children Starting to be Looked After by Local Authorities in England: An Analysis of Inter-authority Variation and Case-centred Decision Making

This paper presents findings from a study of children lookedafter by 24 local authorities in England. The study combinedanalysis of key statistical data with a questionnaire surveycompleted by the social workers for a sub-sample of the children.This paper focuses on children who started a period of beinglooked after in the participating authorities during the 6 monthsfrom October 2000 to March 2001. The study found considerablevariation between the authorities in their rates of childrenstarting to be looked after, and the paper explores reasonsfor these differences. It also highlights the variety of legalroutes and placement options used for children entering thelooked after system, and proposes a matrix that summarizes thevarious combinations that the authorities were found to be using.The matrix can assist social workers and their managers in identifyingthe most appropriate option for individual children.     

Minimising discrimination: A case for excluding interviews from selection for social work courses

Substantial changes in the ways selection interviews are conducted have been the inevitable result of increasing awareness of equal opportunities issues and the requirements of the DipSW courses. The argument pursued in this paper is that interviews do not improve selection because intuitive judgements are inevitably poor and allow discrimination to enter the selection processes. This conclusion is based on a review of the dilemmas facing a University DipSW programme, and research findings from social psychology and equal opportunities research. It should be of interest to DipSW programmes, especially those considering the value of interviews as a method of selection.