农业综合生产自组织功能优化探讨——基于耗散结构理论视角

农业综合生产系统具备耗散结构的基本条件,拥有自组织功能。城市化和工业化进程一定程度上削弱了它的自组织功能,应从系统负熵流的增加、非平衡性的加强、非线性特征的强化和巨涨落的催生等入手,优化农业综合生产的自组织功能。     

浅谈金融危机中加强社会主义核心价值体系建设

由美国次贷危机引发的全球性金融危机是一场经济危机、深度的思想道德危机和社会危机,对我国经济社会发展造成不小的冲击和影响,但同时,又是加强社会主义核心价值体系建设的有利时机。我们要抓住这一战略机遇,通过大众化、生活化、主流化、形象化和制度化的道路,使社会主义核心价值体系基本内容要求转化为我国人民的自觉追求,为应对国际金融危机和建设和谐社会构建强大的共同思想道德基础。     

基于SYS-GMM的中国人口结构变化与经济增长关系研究

本文利用中国29个省份20年的面板数据,探讨了人口结构变化对储蓄、投资和经济增长的影响。我们将人口结构指标引入传统的经济增长模型中,并用固定效应模型和SYS-GMM计量方法分别测算其对储蓄、投资和经济增长的效应。考虑到老年抚养比在经济增长方程的内生性,我们还将滞后30年的就业人数比率作为工具变量来识别老年抚养比对经济增长的因果效应。结果显示老年抚养率对储蓄、投资和经济增长存在显著的正相关。人口增长率对储蓄和投资有着负相关,但对经济增长没有影响。工作年龄人口比率对储蓄率存在负相关,对投资和经济增长存在正向影响但估计的回归系数不显著。在加入其它制度和人口变量之后回归结果依然稳定。     

A study of R2 measure under the accelerated failure time models

For right-censored data, the accelerated failure time (AFT) model is an alternative to the commonly used proportional hazards regression model. It is a linear model for the (log-transformed) outcome of interest, and is particularly useful for censored outcomes that are not time-to-event, such as laboratory measurements. We provide a general and easily computable definition of the R² measure of explained variation under the AFT model for right-censored data. We study its behavior under different censoring scenarios and under different error distributions; in particular, we also study its robustness when the parametric error distribution is misspecified. Based on Monte Carlo investigation results, we recommend the log-normal distribution as a robust error distribution to be used in practice for the parametric AFT model, when the R² measure is of interest. We apply our methodology to an alcohol consumption during pregnancy data set from Ukraine.     

Mildly explosive autoregression with mixing innovations

In this paper, the limit distribution of the least squares estimator for mildly explosive autoregressive models with strong mixing innovations is established, which is shown to be Cauchy as in the iid case. The result is applied to identify the onset and the end of an explosive period of an econometric time series. Simulations and data analysis are also conducted to demonstrate the usefulness of the result.     

Using Community-Based Participatory Research to Develop a Series of Core Competency Trainings Within a Developmental Disability Program

ABSTRACT

The New York State Talent Development Consortium at the Office for People with Developmental Disabilities (OPWDD) mandated developmental disability programs to train and evaluate direct service providers (DSPs) on seven core competencies. Utilizing community-based participatory research (CPBR) – an approach where clients, providers, and researchers share their knowledge and experience to identify study areas, formulate research questions, and use results to improve practice – a needs assessment was conducted by a New York-based developmental disability program to inform a training curriculum. Six focus groups were conducted from a purposive sample of 14 DSPs, and 19 managers/supervisors. Staff identified skills that corresponded with six out of seven competencies. Staff recommended hands-on training on: appropriate communication to deal with individuals with severe disabilities; professionalism; person-centered care; and education on terminology in behavioral health plans, medication, and mental health illnesses. Empowering DSPs through CBPR allows for a training curriculum catered toward staff needs, which may be well-received and utilized. The CBPR process employed may be beneficial to other agencies within the intellectual and developmental disabilities field, particularly at a time when the demand for nonlicensure providers such as DSPs is increasing, and there is a need to train them to render quality and effective services.     

Hong Kong: workfare in the world's freest economy

Chan CK. Hong Kong: workfare in the world's freest economy Int J Soc Welfare 2011: 20: 22–32 © 2009 The Author(s), Journal compilation © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the International Journal of Social Welfare. Workfare was introduced in many countries to suppress welfare dependency and reduce social security expenditures. However, workfare was launched in Hong Kong when there was only a relatively small social security budget and its citizens still strongly adhered to the ideologies of self‐reliance. It was found that workfare has performed several functions in Hong Kong. First, by forcing unemployed claimants to give up benefits, Hong Kong has been able to save on social security expenditures. Second, workfare has combined with Hong Kong's semi‐democratic polity so that extremely stigmatising welfare measures have been implemented. Third, it has pushed poor citizens into the labour market without having any protection over wages and working hours. Thus, the combination of workfare and a semi‐democratic polity has successfully suppressed Hong Kong's welfare demands and strengthened its self‐help spirit. As a result, Hong Kong's minimal social security scheme and its low tax policy have been maintained.     

From Transitional to Permanent Uncertainty: Employability of Middle‐aged Workers in Hong Kong

Since the 1990s, Hong Kong has experienced increasing economic uncertainty. Middle‐aged workers, who often have little formal education and limited skills, have been the first casualties of economic restructuring. Initially, their unemployment was considered transitional. Limited government‐sponsored retraining programs were expected to improve their employability. Subsequent economic crises, however, have undercut the hopes of both workers and policy‐makers. Despite improvements in the job market since the mid‐2000s, the belief that unemployment was transitional has been replaced by a permanent state of uncertainty and consequent anxiety. Flexibility is considered the key to sustaining economic growth, and would relieve the insecurity and anxiety associated with unemployment. Policies have been modified, but they are still based on a narrowly defined concept of individual employability, which consolidates the sense of uncertainty. To address the factors contributing to the perception of permanent uncertainty among middle‐aged workers, we advocate a pragmatic approach that takes reference from the notion of flexicurity to mitigate this sense of uncertainty.     

基于企业内部市场的竞争合作网络：特征及其构建

竞争与合作是企业内部市场交易主体之间的两种基本关系,过度强调竞争会破坏企业的分工合作特性.本文认为,采用内部市场机制的企业,需要建立一种基于价值创造过程的、由各类主体和运行机制构成的、具有全息式信息传递功能和动态演进特性的竞争合作网络.     

Training Social Workers in Personal Finance: An Exploratory Study

Social workers have opportunities to help individuals and families with their financial problems in a variety of practice settings, yet receive no formal training to do so. Using data from an online survey of social workers and other human service professionals (N?=?56) who completed or expressed interest in a financial social work certification program, we found that respondents were able to apply what they learned to help their clients and valued the practical and interactive nature of program content. We also found that respondents were not immune from experiencing some of the same financial problems that confront their clients. Implications for educating BSW and MSW students about household finance are presented and discussed.