Asymptotic Inference for Performance Fees and the Predictability of Asset Returns

In this article, we provide analytical, simulation, and empirical evidence on a test of equal economic value from competing predictive models of asset returns. We define economic value using the concept of a performance fee—the amount an investor would be willing to pay to have access to an alternative predictive model used to make investment decisions. We establish that this fee can be asymptotically normal under modest assumptions. Monte Carlo evidence shows that our test can be accurately sized in reasonably large samples. We apply the proposed test to predictions of the U.S. equity premium.     

Do media play a role in promoting vocational education and training? The case of MasterChef

It is often suggested that vocational education and training (VET) could be key to cut youth unemployment. VET programmes may provide young people with specific professional qualifications that enable them to successfully compete in the labour market. However, despite the great emphasis placed by governments and other institutions on these programmes, VET appears to be far from reaching its full potential in many countries. One barrier preventing students from pursuing this type of education is the stigma associated with VET. This paper looks at the role of media in changing the negative social perceptions of VET. Specifically, it examines whether in Italy the growing popularity of the cooking television reality show MasterChef has led to an increase in the number of students willing to study for a vocational qualification in hospitality and catering. The empirical results show that an increase in the number of MasterChef's viewers is associated with a higher proportion of students willing to attend hospitality and catering schools. This finding suggests that popular television cooking series like MasterChef may be a vehicle through which the image and the attractiveness of VET can be improved.     

Evidence for multiple strategies in choice under risk

This paper describes an experimental study that yields evidence for the coexistence of two decision strategies of choice under risk. Under the first strategy, choices are made based on aspiration levels – a heuristic that simplifies risky decisions. Under the second strategy, which can be used when aspiration levels are not determinative, choices are made based on preferences for positive skewness. Our model fitting confirms the efficacy of a two-pronged approach that can marshal either strategy depending on specific features of the risky prospects under consideration.     

A geostatistical approach to define guidelines for radon prone area identification

Radon is a natural radioactive gas known to be the main contributor to natural background radiation exposure and the major leading cause of lung cancer second to smoking. Indoor radon concentration levels of 200 and 400 Bq/m³ are reference values suggested by the 90/143/Euratom recommendation, above which mitigation measures should be taken in new and old buildings, respectively, to reduce exposure to radon. Despite this international recommendation, Italy still does not have mandatory regulations or guidelines to deal with radon in dwellings. Monitoring surveys have been undertaken in a number of western European countries in order to assess the exposure of people to this radioactive gas and to identify radon prone areas. However, such campaigns provide concentration values in each single dwelling included in the sample, while it is often necessary to provide measures of the pollutant concentration which refer to sub-areas of the region under study. This requires a realignment of the spatial data from the level at which they are collected (points) to the level at which they are necessary (areas). This is known as change of support problem.In this paper, we propose a methodology based on geostatistical simulations in order to solve this problem and to identify radon prone areas which may be suggested for national guidelines.     

Assessing Parfit’s Repugnant Conclusion within a canonical endogenous growth set-up

Parfit’s Repugnant Conclusion stipulates that under total utilitarianism, it might be optimal to choose increasing population size while consumption per capita goes to zero. We evaluate this claim within a canonical AK model with endogenous population size and a reduced form relationship between demographic and economic growth. First we characterize the optimal solution paths for any capital dilution function. Second, we prove that while the Repugnant Conclusion can never occur for realistic values of intertemporal substitution in the traditional linear dilution model, it does occur when population growth is linked to economic growth via an inverted U-shaped relationship.     

Individual determinants of social behavior

By using unique data from the section on social behavior of the Bank of Italy's 2004 Survey of Household Income and Wealth (SHIW), the paper studies the individual determinants of several aspects of social behavior: attitudes to cooperating with anonymous others; interest in politics; participation in groups and associations; and propensity to rely on favoritism both in finding a job and in dealing with government red tape. Our findings suggest that these different aspects of social behavior are only weakly correlated to each other and are explained by different individual determinants. We find that older and more educated individuals display a greater willingness to cooperate, a stronger interest in politics, and more intense association activity. By contrast, the likelihood of relying on favoritism does not depend on age and education. We also find that home-ownership is associated with good social conduct, while urban residence has mostly a negative impact on public behavior. Finally, having left-wing political opinions increases the interest in politics, while it does not affect the other aspects of social behavior.     

The quality of work and the European economic crisis – the theme and the time: an introduction

The theme of the quality of work and working life has gone through ups and downs, recurrent references, at times only opportunistic, in the sociological literature. Our intention here is certainly not to go once again over the stages, both theoretical and empirical, at the international level, but above all european and italian, of this process.     

A representation in beta series for the exact density of some random volume contents

Consider r independent and identically distributed random points in a unit n-ball of which p are in the interior and rp are on the surface. These r points, via their convex hull, generate an r-simplex. This article deals with the exact density of the r-content when the points are uniformly distributed. The exact density of the r-content is obtained for the general values of the parameters r, n and p. A representation of the density is given as a mixture of beta type-1 densities so that one can evaluate various types of probabilities by using incom-plete beta tables.     

Self-selection and direct estimation of across-regime correlation parameter

A direct maximum likelihood (ML) procedure to estimate the ‘generally unidentified’ across-regime correlation parameter in a two-regime endogenous switching model is here provided. The results of a Monte Carlo experiment confirm consistency of our direct ML procedure, and its relative efficiency over widely applied models and methods. As an empirical application, we estimate a two-regime simultaneous equation model of domestic work of Italian married women in which the two regimes are given by their working status (employed or unemployed).