How To Prepare the EU Integration: Banking System, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rate in Macedonia

The significant progress in the reform of the financial sector, including the amendments to the banking law and the reinforcement of the deposit insurance scheme, has been reflected in increased confidence in the Macedonia banking sector. Monetary policy and exchange rates represent a crucial aspect for the countries of Southeast Europe which would like to position themselves on the threshold of negotiations on their accession to the European Union. In the case of Macedonia, which has already formally applied for EU membership, a very cautious approach has to be taken in order to facilitate the stability of the economic system as a whole. Such a policy will make an important contribution to the stabilization of the whole West Balkan area and in particular to the quadrangle of Albania, Kosovo, Montenegro, and Serbia. The preparation of a favourable ground for EU membership negotiations leads first and foremost through a strict monetary and exchange rate policy, which the National Bank is pursuing firmly. Macedonia is now facing optimal conditions for creating the prerequisites for a faster negotiation with less rigorous internal repercussions of the pre-adhesion period. One should not forget the indirect impact of the shadow economy in the general context of efficiency of the instruments of economic and monetary policy. Finally, there is the question to be answered on the interrelation existing between transmission mechanisms linking productivity to the real exchange rate in Macedonia. At first glance, the stylized facts – low labor productivity growth and a trend of real depreciation – could even suggest that a Balassa–Samuelson effect is in play. But the depreciation of the real exchange rate could reflect mainly the behaviour of prices in the tradable sector and a prolonged transition associated with slow technological growth and the low quality of the country's tradable-goods basket.     

媒体的疑难案件:一种比较法的视角

如何处理公正审判同新闻自由间的矛盾是无论何种形式的司法系统都面临着的一个挑战.本文将目光投向了时常被主流文献所忽略的大陆法国家规制庭审前新闻报道的立法与司法实践,着重介绍了这些国家对于诉讼参与人个人名誉与尊严的保护.通过对美国的协调方法、英国的保护主义模式,以及欧洲大陆国家禁止的立场的比较分析,为各国在新闻自由、司法公正和诉讼参与人的人格利益中找到一种合理的平衡提供了一个全新的视角.     

Evolution of Equity Market Risk During the Crisis: Europe, Americas and Asia

A set of regional and country??s equity indices have been evaluated and analysed in their Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) in this paper, using computational methods based on the Johnson systems. Comparing the main statistics and the values of the two cited measures of financial risk obtained using a roll-over mechanism in the period January 2008?CJuly 2012, the impact of the crisis on equity market risk can be shown. It seems that for all regions and countries the patterns are very similar: there is a peak of all the risk measures adopted at the beginning of the crisis (September 2008?CFebruary 2009) and another turbulent period in 2011 (from July to December). In other terms, the global patterns of the main financially relevant countries and their regional aggregations demonstrate that ??One Financial system??, and just one, is already at work, in theory and in practice. On the other hand, the scale of the risk measures differs from one country to another: e.g., with a probability of 1?%, the potential daily loss on an equity position in Latin America in the worst period arrives to about 25?%, the Emerging Markets as a whole show values around 20?% and Asia arrives to 15?%, while the US and European corresponding values are below 14?%. This is true whatever the risk measure and whatever the confidence interval (which, again, influences strongly the scale of the risk values). Looking in detail to the last period (April 2012?CJuly 2012), a general improvement could be appreciated: the risk measures are all around 4?% if not on one hand Italy and Spain (around 6?%), Greece (around 10?%) and on the other hand the ??virtuous?? Chile (around 1.5?%), again with reference to a probability of 1?%. Nevertheless, indices of performance (expected return over risk measure) have been evaluated and compared. They give sometimes different answers to the risk measures themselves.     

Military conscription and university enrolment: evidence from Italy

This paper analyses the effect of the abolition of compulsory military service (CMS) on university enrolment in Italy. A triple-difference model is used to account for various potentially confounding factors. The identification strategy exploits variation along three dimensions: (a) between gender, (b) between age-groups and (c) between time periods. The results show that there is no statistically significant evidence suggesting that the abolition of CMS has a causal effect on the decision to enrol in university studies. Estimates obtained employing a double-difference model exploiting variation along the dimensions (a) and (b) overestimate the effect. Finally, although there is no statistically significant overall effect, we find some evidence of heterogeneous effects between students from different social backgrounds.     

Frames,organisations, and practices as social components of energy

The paper examines three social dimensions of energy. The first one is cognitive; energy is a way of knowing, a macro-concept which works as a frame. Moreover, energy is conceived as a social product; its physical aspects are inextricably bound up with human interactions and meaning attributions. The second dimension is energy organisation. Energy is an instrument used by human beings in order to achieve a goal. In that sense, energy can be assimilated to a technology: that is, a set of knowledges, tools, and actions assembled according to certain rules and traditions. Of energy as organisation it is interesting to consider how it becomes an institution. Its third dimension is practical: it guides our behaviour. This meaning sums up the other two. Energy consumption makes it possible to understand different lifestyles, different logics of action, different habits or customs. It is intrinsic to the most common practices. Worries about consumption or resources depletion are included in some practices of which energy is one of the most important components. The paper concludes with a comment on the energy crisis as a test for the illustrated multidimensional scheme.     

Two‐Year Follow‐up Outcomes in Emotionally Focused Couple Therapy: An Investigation of Relationship Satisfaction and Attachment Trajectories

Emotionally Focused Couple Therapy (EFT; The practice of emotionally focused couple therapy: Creating connection. New York, NY: Brunner‐Routledge) is an evidence‐based couple therapy that aims to create lasting change for couples (Clinical Psychology: Science and Practice, 6(1), 67–79). Although studies have demonstrated strong results in follow‐up (Journal of Marital and Family Therapy, 28(4), 391–398), less is known about relationship functioning across time after therapy has ended. We modelled change in relationship satisfaction and attachment from pre‐therapy through 24 months follow‐up in 32 couples. HLM results confirmed a significant growth pattern demonstrating increases in relationship satisfaction and secure base behaviour and decreases in relationship specific attachment anxiety over the course of therapy and across follow‐up at a decelerated rate. These findings support the theoretical assumption that EFT helps couples engaged in therapy create lasting relationship satisfaction and attachment change.     

In Their Own Voice: Mothers in Drug Treatment and Their Views on Parenting,Behavioral Parent Training,and Barriers to Engagement

Behavioral parent training offers mothers in drug treatment a valuable opportunity to improve their parenting skills through real-time, individualized coaching, but these mothers might be reluctant to participate with their child. Participants were 23 mothers or female guardians from 4 drug treatment programs with children 1 to 10 years old. Focus group discussions and questionnaires asked about their perspectives on parenting and their interest in and obstacles to participating in behavioral parent training. Detailed narrative responses and quantitative analyses identified some unique issues in parenting for this population as well as logistical, attitudinal, and emotional barriers to participating in behavioral parent training with their children.     

Latent variable modeling of disability in people aged 65 or more

This paper aims at classifying, on the basis of their disability profile, the population of elderly and quantifying the number of those with a very low level of functioning in a central region of Italy. This is accomplished using a set of variables on the difficulty of accomplishing everyday tasks (Activities of Daily Living, ADL) and functions. This issue is very important for National and Local Health organizations in order to evaluate the need for care, planning services, elaborating policies and allocating resources. Latent class models are applied on data coming from the Italian National Survey on Health Conditions and Appeal to Medicare to extract the latent trait of disability and classify the elder population according to their disability profile. Model selection brings to a classification into four latent classes. Looking at posterior probabilities, classes may be interpreted as follows: elderly without disability, with difficulties in movements, with difficulties in movements and daily tasks, with very low functioning level. Estimates of the amount of population aged 65 or more falling in each class is also provided. Cross-validation shows evidence of the robustness of such classification. Item response theory models are also applied to the items considered to study how functions are lost with increasing levels of disability. In particular, the abilities of climbing stairs and stooping down are those lost first, while those of eating and getting washed are those lost last.     

Association between dietary phytoestrogens intakes and prostate cancer risk in Sicily

Objective: In this study we aimed to investigate the association between dietary phytoestrogen consumption and prostate cancer in a sample of southern Italian individuals.

Methods: A population-based case-control study on the association between prostate cancer and dietary factors was conducted from January 2015 to December 2016 in a single institution of the municipality of Catania, southern Italy (Registration number: 41/2015). A total of 118 histopathological-verified prostate cancer (PCa) cases and a total of 222 controls were collected. Dietary data was collected by using two food frequency questionnaires.

Results: Patients with PCa consumed significantly higher levels of phytoestrogens. Multivariate logistic regression showed that lignans (Q[quartile]4 vs. Q1, OR [odds ratio]?=?4.72; p?p?p?p?p?p?p?Conclusion: We found of an inverse association between dietary isoflavone intake and PCa, while a positive association was found with lignans intake.