Motivation, Purpose and Processes in Pension Reform

The worldwide nature of the pension reform debate and the wind of change which seems to prevail justify the search for clear answers to three questions: (1) Why change the legislative and institutional framework of social security? (2) What do governments and society at large hope to achieve through change? and (3) If change is desirable, how can it be achieved without disrupting the country's social and financial order? The motivations which incite reformers fall into a few neat categories. A simple typology, as suggested in this article, should help avoid confusion in the public interpretation of recent policies and trends. A regrettable source of untidiness in the pension reform debate is also the use of ambiguous terminology. This is not merely a semantic concern. It has to do with the political meaning that the term conveys, as it may reflect an ideological stance and thus become a divisive issue. Another advantage of putting pension reform into a clearer conceptual framework is that it introduces and explains five specific goals which are common to all contemporary reformers. They are (1) social acceptability, (2) financial sustainability, (3) political feasibility, (4) coherence with economic and labour market realities, and (5) client-friendly management and administration. Ideally the perfect reform should aim at all five goals. In the real world, however, reformers have to settle for less because political feasibility – one of the five – is likely to limit their ambitions of fully meeting the other four.     

LEANING AGAINST WINDY BANK LENDING

Using an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with banking, this paper first provides evidence that monetary policy reacted to bank loan growth in the United States during the Great Moderation. It then shows that the optimized simple interest‐rate rule features no response to the growth of bank credit. However, the welfare loss associated to the empirical responsiveness is small. The sources of business cycle fluctuations are crucial in determining whether a “leaning‐against‐the‐wind” policy is optimal or not. In fact, the predominant role of supply shocks in the model gives rise to a trade‐off between inflation and financial stabilization. (JEL E32, E44, E52)     

On the adjudication of conflicting claims: an experimental study

This paper reports an experimental study on three well-known solutions for problems of adjudicating conflicting claims: the constrained equal awards, the proportional, and the constrained equal losses rules. We first let subjects play three games designed such that the unique equilibrium allocation coincides with the recommendation of one of these three rules. In addition, we let subjects play an additional game that has the property that all (and only) strategy profiles in which players coordinate on the same rule constitute a strict Nash equilibrium. While in the first three games subjects’ play easily converges to the unique equilibrium rule, in the last game the proportional rule overwhelmingly prevails as a coordination device, especially when we frame the game as an hypothetical bankruptcy situation. We also administered a questionnaire to a different group of students, asking them to act as impartial arbitrators to solve (among others) the same problems played in the lab. Also in this case, respondents were sensitive to the framing of the questions, but the proportional rule was selected by the vast majority of respondents.     

Bridge closure in the road network of Lombardy: a spatio-temporal analysis of the socio-economic impacts

Statistical Methods & Applications - This paper introduces a methodology to evaluate the socio-economic impacts of closure for maintenance of one or more infrastructures of a large and complex...     

Behavioural Addictions in Adolescents and Young Adults: Results from a Prevalence Study

Our study aims to assess the prevalence of behavioural addictions in an adolescent population, evaluating the effects of gender and age, and to assess the correlations among different behavioural addictions. 2853 high school students were assessed in order to evaluate the prevalence of behavioural addictions such as Pathological Gambling (PG), Compulsive Buying (CB), Exercise Addiction (EA), Internet Addiction (IA), and Work Addiction (WA), in a population of Italian adolescents. The South Oaks Gambling Screen-Revised Adolescent (SOGS-RA), the Compulsive Buying Scale (CBS), the Exercise Addiction Inventory (EAI), the Internet Addiction Test (IAT), and the Work Addiction Risk Test (WART), were compiled anonymously by the students. Overall prevalence was 7.0% for PG, 11.3% for CB, 1.2% for IA, 7.6% for WA, 8.5% for EA. PG and EA were more common among boys, while gender had no effect on the other conditions. CB was more common among younger (<18 years old) students. The scores of all of these scales were significantly correlated. The strong correlation among different addictive behaviours is in line with the hypothesis of a common psychopathological dimension underlying these phenomena. Further studies are needed to assess personality traits and other clinical disorders associated with these problems behaviours.     

Detection of an unknown increase in the rate of a rare event

Control charts for detecting shifts in the rate of occurrences of rare events are usually implemented by fixing a priori the change to be optimally detected, i.e. under the assumption that the change is from a baseline in-control value to a known out-of-control value. In practice, this assumption is never satisfied. A solution to that problem, mainly devoted to the real world of continuous surveillance, is developed here in terms of a natural extension of the minimizing out-of-control averge run length (ARL) criterion. As an illustrative application, the procedure is analytically solved for the exponential Sets charts. In this case, exact numerical tables of the expected out-of-control ARL, based on the proposed criterion, are also given.     

Calibrated predictions for multivariate competing risks models

Prediction models for time-to-event data play a prominent role in assessing the individual risk of a disease, such as cancer. Accurate disease prediction models provide an efficient tool for identifying individuals at high risk, and provide the groundwork for estimating the population burden and cost of disease and for developing patient care guidelines. We focus on risk prediction of a disease in which family history is an important risk factor that reflects inherited genetic susceptibility, shared environment, and common behavior patterns. In this work family history is accommodated using frailty models, with the main novel feature being allowing for competing risks, such as other diseases or mortality. We show through a simulation study that naively treating competing risks as independent right censoring events results in non-calibrated predictions, with the expected number of events overestimated. Discrimination performance is not affected by ignoring competing risks. Our proposed prediction methodologies correctly account for competing events, are very well calibrated, and easy to implement.     

The Virtual Image Technology,Media, and Construction of the Visual Reality

We are experiencing a passage from the mostly representational function of images (the traditional media of photography, cinematography, television) to constructed images made with new technologies, especially computer graphics and virtual reality. We are left with images as formal abstractions, that make us think of a mediation of cognitive/ experiential models of reality, rather than a simple representative reproduction. With virtual reality the image presents itself more and more as reality, stressing its constructional statute. The image is no longer a map that orients the mental ways, but a real territory to explore.     

DO TRANSFER TAXES REDUCE INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSFERS?

We estimate the effect of taxes on intergenerational transfers by exploiting a sequence of Italian reforms culminating with the abolishment of transfer taxes. We use the Surveys of Household Income and Wealth from 1993 to 2006, which have data on real estate transfers, and information on potential donors and recipients. Difference‐in‐differences estimates indicate that the abolition of transfer taxes increases the probability of high‐wealth donors making a transfer by two percentage points and increases the area transferred by 9.3 square meters relative to poorer donors.