Does One Municipality Fit All?The Employment of Refugees in Norway Across Municipalities of Different Centrality and Size

European Journal of Population - Refugees coming to Norway are assigned to a municipality where they start their integration process. These municipalities offer very different contexts for...     

Expectations About Future Economic Prospects and Satisfaction with Democracy: Evidence from European Countries during the COVID-19 Crisis

Social Indicators Research - Recent studies highlight that economic expectations are a crucial determinant of citizens’ satisfaction with democracy (SWD). This article relies on a...     

Modelling asymmetric volatility dynamics by multivariate BL-GARCH models

The class of Multivariate BiLinear GARCH (MBL-GARCH) models is proposed and its statistical properties are investigated. The model can be regarded as a generalization to a multivariate setting of the univariate BL-GARCH model proposed by Storti and Vitale (Stat Methods Appl 12:19–40, 2003a; Comput Stat 18:387–400, 2003b). It is shown how MBL-GARCH models allow to account for asymmetric effects in both conditional variances and correlations. An EM algorithm for the maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters is derived. Furthermore, in order to test for the appropriateness of the conditional variance and covariance specifications, a set of robust conditional moments test statistics are defined. Finally, the effectiveness of MBL-GARCH models in a risk management setting is assessed by means of an application to the estimation of the optimal hedge ratio in futures hedging.     

How can we make better graphs? An initiative to increase the graphical expertise and productivity of quantitative scientists

Graphics are at the core of exploring and understanding data, communicating results and conclusions, and supporting decision‐making. Increasing our graphical expertise can significantly strengthen our impact as professional statisticians and quantitative scientists. In this article, we present a concerted effort to improve the way we create graphics at Novartis. We provide our vision and guiding principles, before describing seven work packages in more detail. The actions, principles, and experiences laid out in this paper are applicable generally, also beyond drug development, which is our field of work. The purpose of this article is to share our experiences and help foster the use of good graphs in pharmaceutical statistics and beyond. A Graphics Principles “Cheat Sheet” is available online at https://graphicsprinciples.github.io/ .     

Planning a Bayesian early-phase phase I/II study for human vaccines in HER2 carcinomas

Recent innovative statistical approaches for phase I/II clinical trials allow one to jointly model the toxicity and efficacy of a new treatment, taking into account the information gathered during the trial. Prior probabilities are then updated with interim data and thus predictive probabilities become more accurate as the trial progresses. In this study, prior distribution elicited from a physician's opinion on the available dose levels planned for a vaccination dose-finding trial, with human DNA in patients with HER2-positive tumours in terms of toxicity and therapeutic response is presented and discussed. A simulation study was conducted in order to quantify the impact of the choice of prior on study results, i.e. the recommended dose level at the end of the trial.     

Productivity in the Italian Administration. Methods,Comparisons and Results

ABSTRACT: The systems of remuneration for the public administration sector and its relation to productivity are something of a mystery. In this paper the author stresses the need for a new theoretical and methodological approach to this problem. The author illustrates individual cases of incentivation covering various aspects of Public Administration, reporting the techniques adopted, the main ideological approach, the problems focused on and the would-be success achieved. Finally, the paper presents a methodological model of application for the public sector and makes some general evaluations of how these techniques could be successfully applied.