Eliciting Risk and Time Preferences

We design experiments to jointly elicit risk and time preferences for the adult Danish population. Since subjects are generally risk averse, we find that joint elicitation provides estimates of discount rates that are significantly lower than those found in previous studies and more in line with what would be considered as a priori reasonable rates. The statistical specification relies on a theoretical framework that involves a latent trade‐off between long‐run optimization and short‐run temptation. Estimation of this specification is undertaken using structural, maximum likelihood methods. Our main results based on exponential discounting are robust to alternative specifications such as hyperbolic discounting. These results have direct implications for attempts to elicit time preferences, as well as debates over the appropriate domain of the utility function when characterizing risk aversion and time consistency.     

An Empirical Approach to Sufficient Similarity: Combining Exposure Data and Mixtures Toxicology Data

When assessing risks posed by environmental chemical mixtures, whole mixture approaches are preferred to component approaches. When toxicological data on whole mixtures as they occur in the environment are not available, Environmental Protection Agency guidance states that toxicity data from a mixture considered “sufficiently similar” to the environmental mixture can serve as a surrogate. We propose a novel method to examine whether mixtures are sufficiently similar, when exposure data and mixture toxicity study data from at least one representative mixture are available. We define sufficient similarity using equivalence testing methodology comparing the distance between benchmark dose estimates for mixtures in both data‐rich and data‐poor cases. We construct a “similar mixtures risk indicator”(SMRI) (analogous to the hazard index) on sufficiently similar mixtures linking exposure data with mixtures toxicology data. The methods are illustrated using pyrethroid mixtures occurrence data collected in child care centers (CCC) and dose‐response data examining acute neurobehavioral effects of pyrethroid mixtures in rats. Our method shows that the mixtures from 90% of the CCCs were sufficiently similar to the dose‐response study mixture. Using exposure estimates for a hypothetical child, the 95th percentile of the (weighted) SMRI for these sufficiently similar mixtures was 0.20 (i.e., where SMRI <1, less concern; >1, more concern).     

The Challenges in Developing an Online Applied Statistics Program: Lessons Learned at Penn State University

Numerous professional fields have an increasing need for individuals trained in statistics and other quantitative analysis techniques. Today there exists great potential to fulfill this need by providing opportunities through online learning. However, to provide a high-quality education for returning adult professionals seeking advanced degrees in applied statistics online, many challenges need to be overcome. Based on our experience developing Penn State University’s online program in applied statistics, we discuss the evolution of the program’s curriculum, recruitment and development of online faculty, and meeting the requirements of students as important areas that require consideration in the development of an online program. We also highlight program evaluation strategies employed to ensure innovation and improvement in online education as cornerstones to a program’s success.     

The challenges of poverty and social welfare in the Caribbean

Poverty and related social problems have presented a long-standing challenge to policy makers and development planners throughout the Caribbean. This article is a social primer on anti-poverty strategies and welfare programmes established in Caribbean countries. It presents a comprehensive overview of poverty and attendant problems, discusses the social welfare approach and poverty reduction strategies, and outlines practical proposals for pursuing social development.     

Relational Aggression in Middle Childhood: Predictors and Adolescent Outcomes

This study examined gender differences in the level and developmental course of relational aggression in middle childhood, as well as early predictors and outcomes of relational aggression, after controlling for concurrent physical aggression. Relational (RAgg) and Physical aggression (PAgg) scores for 558 boys and 545 girls at the ages of eight to 11 in the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development (SECCYD) were created by combining the highest rating for each item across mother and teacher reports. Longitudinal analyses were conducted using latent curve models of RAgg with PAgg as a time‐varying covariate, with all parameters allowed to vary by gender. Boys and girls had different growth parameters of RAgg. Girls' RAgg intercept was higher, and the slope was not different from zero; boys' RAgg intercept was lower, and the slope declined. Mother–child conflict in early childhood predicted RAgg intercept for both boys and girls, but maternal harsh control and sensitivity were also uniquely predictive for girls whereas center care was uniquely predictive for boys. RAgg intercept predicted adolescent self‐reports of depression for girls and delinquency and risk‐taking for both boys and girls; the magnitude of the association with risk taking was significantly greater for boys.     

THE SOLOW RESIDUAL FOR AUSTRALIA: TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS OR FACTOR UTILIZATION?

This paper presents evidence which implies that fluctuations in the Solow residual for Australia do not solely reflect technology shocks. Recent work suggests that the Solow residual is a noisy measure of technology shocks. One source of noise in the standard measure of the Solow residual is changes in factor utilization. In this paper a structural vector autoregression model for capacity utilization and the Solow residual is estimated. A transitory shock is identified that accounts, for about 30% of the short term variation in the Solow residual and virtually 100% of the variation in capacity utilization at all horizons. ( JEL E3, E32, O4)     

DO BETTER INFORMED INVESTORS ALWAYS DO BETTER? A BUYBACK PUZZLE

We explore the value of private investment information using data from a singular source: auctions of yearling racehorses. Horse breeders possess superior information about their own horses and have strong financial incentives to buy the best of these back at auction. However, those they repurchase subsequently perform significantly worse on average, earning 30% less at the racetrack than horses purchased by outsiders. Moreover, this underperformance is concentrated in male horses, despite these being purchased exclusively for racing purposes. These puzzling findings cannot be explained by differences in horse risk or breeder abilities, or by nonfinancial objectives, or by behavioral or selection biases. (JEL G02, G11, G14, L83, D44)     

Environmentalism and Public Policy: Environmental Justice: Grassroots Activism and Its Impact on Public Policy Decision Making

A growing body of evidence reveals that people of color and low-income persons have borne greater environmental and health risks than the society at large in their neighborhoods, workplace, and playgrounds. Over the last decade or so, grassroots activists have attempted to change the way government implements environmental, health, and civil rights laws. Grassroots groups have organized, educated, and empowered themselves to improve the way government regulations and environmental policies are administered. A new movement emerged in opposition to environmental racism and environmenttal injustice. Over the last decades or so, grassroots activists have had some success in changing the way the federal government treats communities of color and their inhabitants. Grassroots groups have also organized, educated, and empowered themselves to improve the way health and environmental policies are administered. Environmentalism is now equated with social justice and civil rights.     

Book review

New Zealand and the European Union edited by Matthew Gibbons. Auckland, Pearson Education. 2008. 172 p. NZ$52.99 (paperback). ISBN 0733993831.

Going bush. New Zealanders and nature in the twentieth century by Kirstie Ross. Auckland, Auckland University Press. 2008. 200 p. NZ$34.99 (paperback). ISBN 1869404246.

Globalisation and the wealth of nations by Brian Easton. Auckland, Auckland University Press. 2007. 248 p. NZ$50.00 (paperback). ISBN 9781869403775.     

A Hybrid Model of Moral Panics: Synthesizing the Theory and Practice of Moral Panic Research

We seek to address criticisms of the concept of moral panics (MPs) by offering a hybrid model of MPs that synthesizes theory and practice of MPs research. A review of the literature on MPs from sociology, media studies and related fields shows a wide variety of usage and lack of conceptual clarity of the term ‘moral panic’. Yet there are few articles explaining how to analyze MPs. We present a theoretical clarification of MPs by addressing elements of scope, intensity and reception, to create distinction from other related theoretical concepts. To develop a working method for researching MPs, one must have an understanding of social conditions that give rise to, sustain and result in the success or failure of MPs, as well as possible lasting effects. We synthesize Cohen’s process-oriented model of MPs and Goode & Ben-Yehuda’s attribution-oriented model of MPs, creating a critical hybrid model of MPs that integrates processes and attributes. We then utilize the hybrid model to offer practical suggestions for researching and analyzing the conditions, processes and effects of MPs, in the hopes of encouraging a more rigorous research agenda for scholars of MPs.