Reaching Beyond the Net: Political Circuits and Participation in Toronto's G20 Protests

Using a survey of 359 participants in the 2010 protests against the G20 in Toronto, this paper examines the effects and effectiveness of the different communication media in informing diverse participants about the protest. It finds that the communication networks that surrounded the G20 summit protest in Toronto in 2010 were dense and interconnected. Drawing on Tilly's ‘political circuits’, the survey shows that activists at the core of these networks used a combination of online and offline modes of communication, while those outside of that core were reliant on fewer channels of information about the protests. These included people of colour, people who are not part of student networks, less educated people and people less involved in existing social movements. Using logistic regression models, we demonstrate that the digital divide may be less important than the structure and means of communication that make up the political circuits of a movement. Based on these models, we argue that communication modes such as social networking sites and the mainstream media may be important tools for bridging the gap between core and peripheral participants.     

Inferring beliefs as subjectively imprecise probabilities

We propose a method for estimating subjective beliefs, viewed as a subjective probability distribution. The key insight is to characterize beliefs as a parameter to be estimated from observed choices in a well-defined experimental task and to estimate that parameter as a random coefficient. The experimental task consists of a series of standard lottery choices in which the subject is assumed to use conventional risk attitudes to select one lottery or the other and then a series of betting choices in which the subject is presented with a range of bookies offering odds on the outcome of some event that the subject has a belief over. Knowledge of the risk attitudes of subjects conditions the inferences about subjective beliefs. Maximum simulated likelihood methods are used to estimate a structural model in which subjects employ subjective beliefs to make bets. We present evidence that some subjective probabilities are indeed best characterized as probability distributions with non-zero variance.     

Humps and Bumps in Lifetime Consumption

In this article we argue that the life-cycle model that allows demographics to affect household preferences and relaxes the assumption of certainty equivalence can generate hump-shaped consumption profiles over age that are very similar to those observed in household-level data sources and, in particular, match the differences in shape across different education groups. Liquidity constraints or myopia are not required to explain the empirical features of observed life-cycle patterns.     

Informality in a micro economy: Measurement,composition and consequences

This article measures the extent of – and unrecorded income generated by – informal employment in a micro economy characterized by poor governance. Household survey and census data are used to estimate the number of informal workers in Northern Cyprus and analyse the characteristics of informal employment, for the period 2004–11. Informal workers are mostly comprised of citizens with no social security registration, illegally employed immigrants or second‐job holders who have not registered their second jobs. In terms of value added, the estimated size of the informal economy is 9.1 per cent and 12.2 per cent of GNP in 2006 and 2011, respectively.     

Comparison of Six Dose-Response Models for Use with Food-Borne Pathogens

Food-related illness in the United States is estimated to affect over six million people per year and cost the economy several billion dollars. These illnesses and costs could be reduced if minimum infectious doses were established and used as the basis of regulations and monitoring. However, standard methodologies for dose-response assessment are not yet formulated for microbial risk assessment. The objective of this study was to compare dose-response models for food-borne pathogens and determine which models were most appropriate for a range of pathogens. The statistical models proposed in the literature and chosen for comparison purposes were log-normal, log-logistic, exponential, -Poisson and Weibull-Gamma. These were fit to four data sets also taken from published literature, Shigella flexneri, Shigella dysenteriae,Campylobacter jejuni, and Salmonella typhosa, using the method of maximum likelihood. The Weibull-gamma, the only model with three parameters, was also the only model capable of fitting all the data sets examined using the maximum likelihood estimation for comparisons. Infectious doses were also calculated using each model. Within any given data set, the infectious dose estimated to affect one percent of the population ranged from one order of magnitude to as much as nine orders of magnitude, illustrating the differences in extrapolation of the dose response models. More data are needed to compare models and examine extrapolation from high to low doses for food-borne pathogens.     

Incorporating Follow-up Time in M-Estimation for Survival Data

It has been approximately 30 years since D.R. Cox introduced the proportional hazards method to model the relationship between covariates and survival time. However, the proportional hazards model has limited value when the proportionality assumption is violated. Over the years, there have many been many alternative proposals to the proportional hazards regression model for the case of right censored survival data, but to date none have demonstrated widespread acceptance. In general, problems encountered in these methods include their computational algorithms or evaluation of their asymptotic properties. In this work, an estimating equation based on a U-statistic of degree 2 is proposed. It is easy to implement and the U-statistic framework provides a straightforward development of asymptotic inferential theory for the regression parameters.     

Making Sense of “Quality?” — Toward a Review and Critique of Quality Initiatives in Financial Services

This article provides a broad classification and critique of the theoretical and empirical approaches toward quality initiatives. These are the technical managerialist, social managerialist, and critical nonmanagerialist approaches. The technical managerialist approach is based upon the flawed assumption that practice follows policy almost like night follows day. By contrast, focusing on intraorganizational politics and the tensions of hierarchy, social managerialists recognize that outcomes are always a negotiated compromise. A majority of these authors are concerned with rendering quality initiatives more effective for management. In contrast, critical nonmanagerialists refuse to take on uncritically the assumptions and attitudes of management, and are concerned with understanding the forms and content of quality initiatives. The article provides a conceptual framework for guiding and advancing research on quality initiatives, and it offers themes and issues which warrant exploring.