Hijacking Planes to Cuba: An Up-Dated Version of the Birthday Problem

Modern desk calculators compute distribution functions for many of the standard tabled distributions. Two such machines and some of their capabilities are discussed. Generally more is available from the calculators than is found in voluminous tables. One of the biggest advantages of the machines over tables arises from their capacity to compute probabilities for the two parameter F distribution, a set of values that is cumbersome to tabulate.     

Ambivalent sexism and attitudes toward women who engage in premarital sex in Turkey

This study examined the relationship of ambivalent sexism, political conservatism, demographic variables (age, education, and gender), and prior sexual experience to Turkish men s and women s attitudes toward women who engage in premarital sex. Participants included 124 Turkish undergraduate students and 60 nonstudent Turkish adults. Benevolent but not hostile sexism uniquely predicted more negative views of women who engage in premarital sex once other variables were controlled. Regression analyses demonstrated that for both men and women, older, more politically conservative and less sexually experienced respondents and more educated men (but not women) respondents were more likely to disapprove of women who engage in premarital sex. Similarly, regression analysis revealed that men who were older, politically conservative, and less sexually experienced expressed stronger preferences for marrying a virgin. Both hostile and benevolent sexism predicted men s preference for marrying a virgin after all other variables were controlled.     

Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery in Databases – An Overview

Data mining seeks to extract useful, but previously unknown, information from typically massive collections of non-experimental, sometimes non-traditional data. From the perspective of statisticians, this paper surveys techniques used and contributions from fields such as data warehousing, machine learning from artificial intelligence, and visualization as well as statistics. It concludes that statistical thinking and design of analysis, as exemplified by achievements in clinical epidemiology, may fit well with the emerging activities of data mining and 'knowledge discovery in databases' (DM&KDD).     

DOES EXCHANGE RATE APPRECIATION ‘DEINDUSTRIALIZE’ THE OPEN ECONOMY? A CRITIQUE OF U.S. EVIDENCE

This paper takes a critical look at the conventional view that the dollar exchange rate appreciation during the early 1980s caused a major resource shift in the U.S. economy away from tradables production, such as manufactures, toward nontradables production. We argue that the association of a dollar appreciation with relative strength or weakness in the tradable goods sector depends on the particular shock causing the appreciation, and consequently that the relation between exchange rates and the sectoral composition of output is unlikely to be stable over time. Our empirical analysis finds evidence of instability in the exchange rate–sectoral output link and of a positive association between tradables output and fiscal stimulus.     

Regimes of Mobility Across the Globe

Mobility studies emerged from a postmodern moment in which global ‘flows’ of capital, people and objects were increasingly noted and celebrated. Within this new scholarship, categories of migrancy are all seen through the same analytical lens. This article and Regimes of Mobility: Imaginaries and Relationalities of Power, the special issue of JEMS it introduces, build on, as well as critique, past and present studies of mobility. In so doing, this issue challenges conceptual orientations built on binaries of difference that have impeded analyses of the interrelationship between mobility and stasis. These include methodological nationalism, which counterpoises concepts of internal and international movement and native and foreigner, and consequently normalises stasis. Instead, the issue offers a regimes of mobility framework that addresses the relationships between mobility and immobility, localisation and transnational connection, experiences and imaginaries of migration, and rootedness and cosmopolitan openness. The introduction highlights how, within this framework and its emphasis on social fields of differential power, the contributors to this collection ethnographically explore the disparities, inequalities, racialised representations and national mythscapes that facilitate and legitimate differential mobility and fixity. Although the authors examine nation-state building processes, their analysis is not confined by national boundaries.     

Methodological nationalism and beyond: nation–state building,migration and the social sciences

Methodological nationalism is understood as the assumption that the nation/state/society is the natural social and political form of the modern world. We distinguish three modes of methodological nationalism that have characterized mainstream social science, and then show how these have influenced research on migration. We discover parallels between nationalist thinking and the conceptualization of migration in postwar social sciences. In a historical tour d’horizon, we show that this mainstream concept has developed in close interaction with nation–state building processes in the West and the role that immigration and integration policies have played within them. The shift towards a study of ‘transnational communities’— the last phase in this process — was more a consequence of an epistemic move away from methodological nationalism than of the appearance of new objects of observation. The article concludes by recommending new concepts for analysis that, on the one hand, are not coloured by methodological nationalism and, on the other hand, go beyond the fluidism of much contemporary social theory.     

Parents' Coresidence With Adult Children: Can Immigration Explain Racial and Ethnic Variation?

There is considerable racial and ethnic variation in the prevalence of intergenerational coresidence in the United States. Using data from the Current Population Surveys, we demonstrate that much of this is attributable to recent immigration and the relative economic position of immigrant parents. Multinomial logistic regression results reveal that recent immigrant parents, particularly Asian and Central and South American immigrant parents, are more likely to live in households in which their adult children provide most of the household income. The likelihood of living in this “dependent” role decreases with duration of residence in the United States. The likelihood of living in an intergenerational household in which the parent provides the majority of the household income is not as tied to nativity.     

First-marriage decrement tables by color and sex for the United States in 1958–60

A new set of first-marriage tables is compared with earlier tables that were prepared by Grabill and Jacobson. The new tables show, among other things, the number of first marriages, first-marriage probabilities, and death probabilities for single persons in a stationary (life table) population by color and sex, based on 1960 Census data on marital status and age at first marriage and on general mortality rates for 1959-61. A comparison of the earlier tables with the new tables provides evidence of a decrease of one or two years in the average age at first marriage between 1920-40 and 1958-60 and an increasing tendency for first marriages to be concentrated within a narrower span of years. The prospects for eventual marriage have risen to the point where it is estimated that all but 3 to 5 percent of the young adults are expected eventually to marry. This development has gone so far that the main question remaining is not whether young people will ever marry, but at what age they will marry.     

Perspectives on the recent upturn in divorce and remarriage

The divorce rate per thousand married women under 45 years of age in the United States increased by two–thirds between the mid-1950’s and 1970. During the same period, the remarriage rate per thousand divorced or widowed women under 55 years of age rose about one-third. By contrast, first marriages per thousand single women under 45 years of age declined by one-tenth since the mid-1950’s. These changes reinforce the general impression that a fundamental modification of life styles and values relating to marriage has been taking place. An analysis of nationwide data on birth cohorts from 1900 to 1954 demonstrates that early marriage has declined since the mid-1950’s but leaves open the question as to whether lifelong singleness is becoming more prevalent. The cohort study shows that the upward trend in divorce is not “phasing out” yet, as it did after World War II. An estimated 25 to 29 percent of all women near 30 years old now have ended or will end their first marriage in divorce. About four-fifths of these divorced women have remarried or probably will do so. Of all women around 30 years old now, some five to ten percent may be expected to experience divorce at least twice during their lifetime.