ON THE OPTIMAL ASYMPTOTIC TESTS FOR THE EFFECTS OF CLOUD SEEDING ON RAINFALL (1) THE CASE OF FIXED EFFECTS

In this paper we consider a sequence of experimental units {u_n} which are t o be treated according to some random scheme. A general randomized design is suggested for the purpose. Asymptotic tests, optimal in some sense, are derived for testing the absence of the effects of the treatment. These tests are applicable in various situations, for example, when the treatment effects are additive or when they are multiplicative. Based on the asymptotic power of the tests obtained, optimality of various designs is discussed. The randomized designs discussed here have a wide range of applicability, e.g. in weather modification experiments and bio-assay.     

Sources of Influence in the Family Therapy Field: Publication Trends in Three Major Journals1

The institutional sources of all articles published in the three major marriage and family therapy journals through 1978 are identified. The journals reviewed include: Family Process, Journal of Marital and Family Therapy, and the American Journal of Family Therapy. While no single center emerges as dominating the published family therapy literature, a small number of institutions clearly have exerted a profound impact on the literature of the field. Moreover, the absolute number of centers influencing the field is rapidly increasing, and these centers are becoming particularly influential in the newer journals in the field.     

Primary Integration and Political Involvement

An attempt is made to establish primary integration as a major variable in explaining citizen involvement in political life. It is argued that a convincing case requires a demonstration that the variable is both empirically important and theoretically meaningful. The former is examined through data from a sample survey of an English city. Theoretical meaning is established through focussing upon the idea of sociable talk as a key factor in reality construction, including the construction of political events as a proximate world available for the interest and participation by the individual.     

The fertility contribution of Mexican immigration to the United States

Crucial to the long-term contribution of immigration to a receiving country's population is the extent to which the immigrants reproduce themselves in subsequent, native-born generations. Using conventional projection methodologies, this fertility contribution may be poorly estimated primarily because of problems in projecting the number of immigrants who are at risk of childbearing. We propose an alternative method that obviates the need to project the number of immigrants by using the full sending-country birth cohort as the risk group to project their receiving-country childbearing. This "sending-country birth cohort" method is found to perform dramatically better than conventional methods when projecting to 1999 from base years both before and after the large increase in inflows of Mexican immigrants to the United States in the late 1980s. Projecting forward from 1999, we estimate a cumulative contribution of Mexican immigrant fertility from the 1980s to 2040 of 36 million births, including 25% to 50% more births after 1995 than are projected using conventional methods.