New Reduced-bias Estimators of a Positive Extreme Value Index

Noting that the classical Hill estimator of a positive extreme value index (EVI) is the logarithm of the mean of order-0 of a set of certain statistics, a more general class of EVI-estimators based on the mean of order-p (MOP), p ? 0, of such statistics was recently introduced. The asymptotic behavior of the class of MOP EVI-estimators is reviewed, and compared to their reduced-bias MOP (RBMOP) and optimal RBMOP versions, which are suggested here and studied both asymptotically and for finite samples, through a large-scale simulation study. Applications to simulated datasets are also put forward.     

Multilateral Contracting with Externalities

This paper proposes a model for multilateral contracting, where contracts are written and renegotiated over time, and where contracts may impose externalities on other agents. Equilibria always exist and the equilibrium value function is linear and monotonically increasing on the contracts. If the grand coalition, or contracting among all agents, is inefficient, we show that bargaining delays arise in positive‐externality games and equilibrium inefficiency may remain bounded away from zero even as bargaining frictions converge to zero. Otherwise, if the grand coalition is efficient, there are no bargaining delays, convergence to the grand coalition occurs in a finite number of contracting rounds, and the outcome becomes efficient as players become more patient.     

An effective algorithm for obtaining the whole set of minimal cost pairs of disjoint paths with dual arc costs

In telecommunication networks design the problem of obtaining optimal (arc or node) disjoint paths, for increasing network reliability, is extremely important. The problem of calculating k _c disjoint paths from s to t (two distinct nodes), in a network with k _c different (arbitrary) costs on every arc such that the total cost of the paths is minimised, is NP-complete even for k _c =2. When k _c =2 these networks are usually designated as dual arc cost networks.     

Improved reduced-bias tail index and quantile estimators

In this paper, we deal with bias reduction techniques for heavy tails, trying to improve mainly upon the performance of classical high quantile estimators. High quantiles depend strongly on the tail index γ$\gamma$, for which new classes of reduced-bias estimators have recently been introduced, where the second-order parameters in the bias are estimated at a level _k1$k_1$ of a larger order than the level k at which the tail index is estimated. Doing this, it was seen that the asymptotic variance of the new estimators could be kept equal to the one of the popular Hill estimators. In a similar way, we now introduce new classes of tail index and associated high quantile estimators, with an asymptotic mean squared error smaller than that of the classical ones for all k in a large class of heavy-tailed models. We derive their asymptotic distributional properties and compare them with those of alternative estimators. Next to that, an illustration of the finite sample behavior of the estimators is also provided through a Monte Carlo simulation study and the application to a set of real data in the field of insurance.     

Transformed symmetric generalized autoregressive moving average models

Cordeiro and Andrade [Transformed generalized linear models. J Stat Plan Inference. 2009;139:2970–2987] incorporated the idea of transforming the response variable to the generalized autoregressive moving average (GARMA) model, introduced by Benjamin et al. [Generalized autoregressive moving average models. J Am Stat Assoc. 2003;98:214–223], thus developing the transformed generalized autoregressive moving average (TGARMA) model. The goal of this article is to develop the TGARMA model for symmetric continuous conditional distributions with a possible nonlinear structure for the mean that enables the fitting of a wide range of models to several time series data types. We derive an iterative process for estimating the parameters of the new model by maximum likelihood and obtain a simple formula to estimate the parameter that defines the transformation of the response variable. Furthermore, we determine the moments of the original dependent variable which generalize previous published results. We illustrate the theory by means of real data sets and evaluate the results developed through simulation studies.