Social status and fertility: A study of a town and three villages in Northwestern Iran

Studies of the relationship between social status and fertility in developing societies have shown diverse results. This study suggests that such findings result in part from problems in the conceptualization of social stratification and social status. In developing societies such as Iran the differentiation of modern and traditional cultural (and occupational) groups within social classes has resulted in the emergence of a dual hierarchy. Measures of social status must therefore reflect these conceptually distinct hierarchies, rather than be limited to linear scales. Figures from a study in a town and three villages in northwest Iran undertaken in 1973 are analyzed. Findings indicate that for women in towns, as social status increases within both traditional and modern occupational hierarchies (husband's occupation) and as measured by income, education and index of modern items, there is a general and almost monotonic decrease in the number of living children, children ever-born, and ideal number of children, with an increase in age at marriage and contraceptive use. The social and cultural homogeneity of the village sample is reflected in the relatively small variations in fertility-related behaviour and attitudes; however, fertility differences between landed and landless villages appear similar to the pattern found in the urban samples. The differences in the fertility behaviour of village and urban women of similar income and educational status indicate that fertility behaviour is related partially to class and partially to status distinctions between urban and rural communities.     

Bayesian compartmental model for an infectious disease with dynamic states of infection

Population-level proportions of individuals that fall at different points in the spectrum [of disease severity], from asymptomatic infection to severe disease, are often difficult to observe, but estimating these quantities can provide information about the nature and severity of the disease in a particular population. Logistic and multinomial regression techniques are often applied to infectious disease modeling of large populations and are suited to identifying variables associated with a particular disease or disease state. However, they are less appropriate for estimating infection state prevalence over time because they do not naturally accommodate known disease dynamics like duration of time an individual is infectious, heterogeneity in the risk of acquiring infection, and patterns of seasonality. We propose a Bayesian compartmental model to estimate latent infection state prevalence over time that easily incorporates known disease dynamics. We demonstrate how and why a stochastic compartmental model is a better approach for determining infection state proportions than multinomial regression is by using a novel method for estimating Bayes factors for models with high-dimensional parameter spaces. We provide an example using visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil and present an empirically-adjusted reproductive number for the infection.     

Generalized Utilitarianism and Harsanyi's Impartial Observer Theorem

Harsanyi's impartial observer must consider two types of lotteries: imaginary identity lotteries (“accidents of birth”) that she faces as herself and the real outcome lotteries (“life chances”) to be faced by the individuals she imagines becoming. If we maintain a distinction between identity and outcome lotteries, then Harsanyi‐like axioms yield generalized utilitarianism, and allow us to accommodate concerns about different individuals' risk attitudes and concerns about fairness. Requiring an impartial observer to be indifferent as to which individual should face similar risks restricts her social welfare function, but still allows her to accommodate fairness. Requiring an impartial observer to be indifferent between identity and outcome lotteries, however, forces her to ignore both fairness and different risk attitudes, and yields a new axiomatization of Harsanyi's utilitarianism.     

Reversing Nuclear Opposition: Evolving Public Acceptance of a Permanent Nuclear Waste Disposal Facility

Nuclear facilities have long been seen as the top of the list of locally unwanted land uses (LULUs), with nuclear waste repositories generating the greatest opposition. Focusing on the case of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in southern New Mexico, we test competing hypotheses concerning the sources of opposition and support for siting the facility, including demographics, proximity, political ideology, and partisanship, and the unfolding policy process over time. This study tracks the changes of risk perception and acceptance of WIPP over a decade, using measures taken from 35 statewide surveys of New Mexico citizens spanning an 11‐year period from fall 1990 to summer 2001. This time span includes periods before and after WIPP became operational. We find that acceptance of WIPP is greater among those whose residences are closest to the WIPP facility. Surprisingly, and contrary to expectations drawn from the broader literature, acceptance is also greater among those who live closest to the nuclear waste transportation route. We also find that ideology, partisanship, government approval, and broader environmental concerns influence support for WIPP acceptance. Finally, the sequence of procedural steps taken toward formal approval of WIPP by government agencies proved to be important to gaining public acceptance, the most significant being the opening of the WIPP facility itself.     

Assessment of Inhalation Exposures and Potential Health Risks to the General Population that Resulted from the Collapse of the World Trade Center Towers

In the days following the collapse of the World Trade Center (WTC) towers on September 11, 2001 (9/11), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) initiated numerous air monitoring activities to better understand the ongoing impact of emissions from that disaster. Using these data, EPA conducted an inhalation exposure and human health risk assessment to the general population. This assessment does not address exposures and potential impacts that could have occurred to rescue workers, firefighters, and other site workers, nor does it address exposures that could have occurred in the indoor environment. Contaminants evaluated include particulate matter (PM), metals, polychlorinated biphenyls, dioxins, asbestos, volatile organic compounds, particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, silica, and synthetic vitreous fibers (SVFs). This evaluation yielded three principal findings. (1) Persons exposed to extremely high levels of ambient PM and its components, SVFs, and other contaminants during the collapse of the WTC towers, and for several hours afterward, were likely to be at risk for acute and potentially chronic respiratory effects. (2) Available data suggest that contaminant concentrations within and near ground zero (GZ) remained significantly elevated above background levels for a few days after 9/11. Because only limited data on these critical few days were available, exposures and potential health impacts could not be evaluated with certainty for this time period. (3) Except for inhalation exposures that may have occurred on 9/11 and a few days afterward, the ambient air concentration data suggest that persons in the general population were unlikely to suffer short-term or long-term adverse health effects caused by inhalation exposures. While this analysis by EPA evaluated the potential for health impacts based on measured air concentrations, epidemiological studies conducted by organizations other than EPA have attempted to identify actual impacts. Such studies have identified respiratory effects in worker and general populations, and developmental effects in newborns whose mothers were near GZ on 9/11 or shortly thereafter. While researchers are not able to identify specific times and even exactly which contaminants are the cause of these effects, they have nonetheless concluded that exposure to WTC contaminants (and/or maternal stress, in the case of developmental effects) resulted in these effects, and have identified the time period including 9/11 itself and the days and few weeks afterward as a period of most concern based on high concentrations of key pollutants in the air and dust.     

Changes in Suicide and Divorce in New Casino Jurisdictions

Using county-level data, this study examines the impact that the introduction of casino gambling has on suicide and divorce. Eight communities that adopted casino gambling between 1991 and 1994 are compared with a matched set of control counties, jurisdictions that are economically and demographically similar to the casino counties. Suicide rates are not statistically different between casino and control communities. Divorce rates are lower in three casinos counties, higher in one, and not statistically different in four. Overall, the results suggest no widespread, statistically significant increase in either suicide or divorce. Possible explanations for the results are provided.     

Factor Analysis of Barriers to Treatment for Problem Gambling

Attitudes toward problem gambling treatment were investigated in a telephone survey of 1,203 persons in Central Queensland Australia (598 women and 605 men, mean age = 45.8 years). Survey items were compiled from existing substance abuse questionnaires (Center on Alcoholism, Substance Abuse and Addictions, 1995; Sobell et al., 1991). An exploratory factor analysis identified five potential barriers to treatment, including: availability, stigma, cost, uncertainty, and avoidance. Relative to those with few problems, respondents who had numerous gambling problems were more concerned about treatment costs, and the availability and effectiveness of treatment. In addition to the above concerns, older persons more often negatively judged the treatment seeker. In contrast, educated respondents had generally more positive attitudes towards problem gamblers and treatment seeking.     

Does schooling protect sexual health? The association between three measures of education and STIs among adolescents in Malawi

While multiple studies have documented shifting educational gradients in HIV prevalence, less attention has been given to the effect of school participation and academic skills on infection during adolescence. Using the Malawi Schooling and Adolescent Study, a longitudinal survey that followed 2,649 young people aged 14–17 at baseline from 2007 to 2013, we estimate the effect of three education variables: school enrolment, grade attainment, and academic skills—numeracy and Chichewa literacy—on herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) and HIV incidence using interval-censored survival analysis. We find that grade attainment is significantly associated with lower rates of both HSV-2 and HIV among girls, and is negatively associated with HSV-2 but not HIV among boys. School enrolment and academic skills are not significantly associated with sexually transmitted infections (STIs) for boys or girls in our final models. Efforts to encourage school progression in high-prevalence settings in sub-Saharan Africa could well reduce, or at least postpone, acquisition of STIs.