A Risk Assessment Framework for the Socioeconomic Impacts of Electricity Transmission Infrastructure Failure Due to Space Weather: An Application to the United Kingdom

Space weather phenomena have been studied in detail in the peer‐reviewed scientific literature. However, there has arguably been scant analysis of the potential socioeconomic impacts of space weather, despite a growing gray literature from different national studies, of varying degrees of methodological rigor. In this analysis, we therefore provide a general framework for assessing the potential socioeconomic impacts of critical infrastructure failure resulting from geomagnetic disturbances, applying it to the British high‐voltage electricity transmission network. Socioeconomic analysis of this threat has hitherto failed to address the general geophysical risk, asset vulnerability, and the network structure of critical infrastructure systems. We overcome this by using a three‐part method that includes (i) estimating the probability of intense magnetospheric substorms, (ii) exploring the vulnerability of electricity transmission assets to geomagnetically induced currents, and (iii) testing the socioeconomic impacts under different levels of space weather forecasting. This has required a multidisciplinary approach, providing a step toward the standardization of space weather risk assessment. We find that for a Carrington‐sized 1‐in‐100‐year event with no space weather forecasting capability, the gross domestic product loss to the United Kingdom could be as high as £15.9 billion, with this figure dropping to £2.9 billion based on current forecasting capability. However, with existing satellites nearing the end of their life, current forecasting capability will decrease in coming years. Therefore, if no further investment takes place, critical infrastructure will become more vulnerable to space weather. Additional investment could provide enhanced forecasting, reducing the economic loss for a Carrington‐sized 1‐in‐100‐year event to £0.9 billion.     

Justifying Social Impact as a Form of Impression Management: Legitimacy Judgements of Social Enterprises’ Impact Accounts

This paper investigates how social enterprises construct accounts to gain legitimacy from the social impact generated by their products and operations. The paper finds that social impact accounts are framed to appeal to two distinct forms of judgement about legitimacy: cognitive and evaluative. Cognitive forms of judgement qualify how well an enterprise shares attributes with an individual's schemas of established actors or roles in society. Evaluative forms of judgement tend to operate more analytically to make comparisons of the relative appropriateness and desirability of multiple enterprises to achieve an audience's goals. The findings show that although legitimizing the social aspects of an enterprise involved justifications aimed at both forms of judgement, legitimizing an enterprise's professionalism relied almost exclusively on evaluative judgements. Moreover, the justifications created to appeal to evaluative judgements relied almost exclusively on financial and operational data, using operational scale as a proxy.     

The usual suspects: do risk tolerance,altruism, and health predict the response to COVID-19?

Review of Economics of the Household - We survey college students during California’s stay-at-home order to test whether compliance with social distancing requirements depends on primary...     

Methods for Detecting and Estimating Population Threshold Concentrations for Air Pollution–Related Mortality with Exposure Measurement Error

The association between daily fluctuations in ambient particulate matter and daily variations in nonaccidental mortality have been extensively investigated. Although it is now widely recognized that such an association exists, the form of the concentration–response model is still in question. Linear, no threshold and linear threshold models have been most commonly examined. In this paper we considered methods to detect and estimate threshold concentrations using time series data of daily mortality rates and air pollution concentrations. Because exposure is measured with error, we also considered the influence of measurement error in distinguishing between these two completing model specifications. The methods were illustrated on a 15-year daily time series of nonaccidental mortality and particulate air pollution data in Toronto, Canada. Nonparametric smoothed representations of the association between mortality and air pollution were adequate to graphically distinguish between these two forms. Weighted nonlinear regression methods for relative risk models were adequate to give nearly unbiased estimates of threshold concentrations even under conditions of extreme exposure measurement error. The uncertainty in the threshold estimates increased with the degree of exposure error. Regression models incorporating threshold concentrations could be clearly distinguished from linear relative risk models in the presence of exposure measurement error. The assumption of a linear model given that a threshold model was the correct form usually resulted in overestimates in the number of averted premature deaths, except for low threshold concentrations and large measurement error.     

Cleaning up their act: The effects of marriage and cohabitation on licit and illicit drug use

We use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to estimate changes in binge drinking, marijuana use, and cigarette smoking surrounding young adults' first experiences of cohabitation and marriage. Both marriage and cohabitation are accompanied by decreases in some risk behaviors, but reductions surrounding marriage are larger and most consistent, particularly for men. Binge drinking and marijuana use respond to these events, especially marriage, but smoking does not.     

Experience of Career‐Related Discrimination for Female‐to‐Male Transgender Persons: A Qualitative Study

In this qualitative study, the authors examined the experience of discrimination and its relationship to the career development trajectory of 9 female‐to‐male transgender persons. Participants were between 21 and 48 years old and had a variety of vocational experiences. Individual semistructured interviews were conducted via telephone and analyzed using grounded theory methodology. The emergent model consisted of forms of discrimination and impact of discrimination. These components intersected with the career development trajectory. Participants provided their own suggestions for improving the workplace environment. Counseling, advocacy, and future research implications are discussed.     

Confucian philosophy and influence on perceived values and behavioural orientations by Taiwan’s millennials

This study examines the millennials’ perceptions of Confucianism and their influence on their personal values and behavioural orientations with a sample from Taiwan to address the research gap in intergenerational and intercultural human resource development (HRD) research. It complements results from western research and offers important insights to worldwide managers and HRD practitioners for talent development and learning-related initiatives when working with employees and organizations with East Asia backgrounds. The concept of Confucius’ process of developing into a virtuous person seems to be rooted in the Taiwanese millennials’ mind, who as guided by Confucius tend to have a primary focus on accumulating knowledge, practicing moral behaviour, and correcting one’s mind and behaviour. Along with the globalization and technology advancement, the sampled millennials hold a strong traditional values of Confucian philosophy; yet, such strong cultural values may be attenuated a great deal after exposing to western culture over times. The Confucian virtue (moral) behaviour practice, harmonious relations, and self-cultivation are found as top three factors of Confucian values. Implications for HRD practices and recommendations for future research are discussed.     

Navigating employability from the bottom up

ABSTRACT

Research focusing on young people’s career trajectories has emphasised ‘graduate employability’ with much less attention being afforded to the employability strategies used by disadvantaged youth, including the social, political and labour market contexts in which these emerge. This study explores how young people enrolled in entry-level, vocational training courses in Australia attempt to enhance their employability. Interviews explored perceptions of individual employability, the strategies utilised to improve employability, and the economic, personal and employment consequences of these strategies. Three main employability strategies were identified: gaining qualifications to meet employment expectations; securing work experience in a competitive labour market; and addressing economic and social challenges to secure and sustain employment. The study reveals how the dominant narratives of employability in education and employment policy are misaligned with the economic, social and labour market challenges faced by disadvantaged job-seekers with respect to notions of career and ‘fit’ between the individual and the labour market. Policy responses need to take account of the diverse ‘bottom up’ experiences and circumstances of different cohorts of young people.     

Approximations for Estimating Change in Life Expectancy Attributable to Air Pollution in Relation to Multiple Causes of Death Using a Cause Modified Life Table

There is considerable debate as to the most appropriate metric for characterizing the mortality impacts of air pollution. Life expectancy has been advocated as an informative measure. Although the life‐table calculus is relatively straightforward, it becomes increasingly cumbersome when repeated over large numbers of geographic areas and for multiple causes of death. Two simplifying assumptions were evaluated: linearity of the relation between excess rate ratio and change in life expectancy, and additivity of cause‐specific life‐table calculations. We employed excess rate ratios linking PM_2.5 and mortality from cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, ischemic heart disease, and lung cancer derived from a meta‐analysis of worldwide cohort studies. As a sensitivity analysis, we employed an integrated exposure response function based on the observed risk of PM_2.5 over a wide range of concentrations from ambient exposure, indoor exposure, second‐hand smoke, and personal smoking. Impacts were estimated in relation to a change in PM_2.5 from 19.5 μg/m³ estimated for Toronto to an estimated natural background concentration of 1.8 μg/m³. Estimated changes in life expectancy varied linearly with excess rate ratios, but at higher values the relationship was more accurately represented as a nonlinear function. Changes in life expectancy attributed to specific causes of death were additive with maximum error of 10%. Results were sensitive to assumptions about the air pollution concentration below which effects on mortality were not quantified. We have demonstrated valid approximations comprising expression of change in life expectancy as a function of excess mortality and summation across multiple causes of death.