A course for clinical trial personnel in clinical study designs, randomization, allocation schedules, and interactive response systems

This continuing education course for professionals involved in all areas of clinical trials integrates concepts related to the role of randomization in the scientific process. The course includes two interactive lecture and discussion sections and a workshop practicum. The first interactive lecture introduces basic clinical trial issues and statistical principles such as bias, blinding, randomization, control groups, and the importance of formulating clear and discriminating clinical and statistical hypotheses. It then focuses on the most commonly used clinical study designs and the corresponding patient randomization schemes. The second interactive lecture focuses on the implementation of randomization of patients and drug supply through allocation and component ID schedules. The workshop practicum, conducted in small groups, enables students to apply the lecture concepts to real clinical studies. Flexibility was built into the workshop practicum materials to allow the course content to be customized to specific audiences, and the interactive lecture sessions can be stretched to cover more advanced topics according to class interest and time availability.     

Rainfall interception by Santa Monica's municipal urban forest

Effects of urban forests on rainfall interception and runoff reduction have been conceptualized, but not well quantified. In this study rainfall interception by street and park trees in Santa Monica, California is simulated. A mass and energy balance rainfall interception model is used to simulate rainfall interception processes (e.g., gross precipitation, free throughfall, canopy drip, stemflow, and evaporation). Annual rainfall interception by the 29,299 street and park trees was 193,168 m³ (6.6 m³/tree), or 1.6% of total precipitation. The annual value of avoided stormwater treatment and flood control costs associated with reduced runoff was $110,890 ($3.60/tree). Interception rate varied with tree species and sizes. Rainfall interception ranged from 15.3% (0.8 m³/tree) for a small Jacaranda mimosifolia (3.5 cm diameter at breast height) to 66.5% (20.8 m³/tree) for a mature Tristania conferta (38.1 cm). In a 25-year storm, interception by all street and park trees was 12,139.5 m³ (0.4%), each tree yielding $0.60 (0.4 m³/tree) in avoided flood control costs. Rainfall interception varied seasonally, averaging 14.8% during a 21.7 mm winter storm and 79.5% during a 20.3 mm summer storm for a large, deciduous Platanus acerifolia tree. Effects of differences in temporal precipitation patterns, tree population traits, and pruning practices on interception in Santa Monica, Modesto, and Sacramento, California are described.     

Malthus to modernity: wealth,status, and fertility in England, 1500–1879

A key challenge to theories of long-run economic growth has been linking the onset of modern growth with the move to modern fertility limitation. A notable puzzle for these theories is that modern growth in England began around 1780, 100 years before there was seemingly any movement to limit fertility. Here we show that the aggregate data on fertility in England before 1880 conceals significant declines in the fertility of the middle and upper classes earlier. These declines coincide with the Industrial Revolution and are of the character predicted by some recent theories of long-run growth.     

Reserving Capacity for Urgent Patients in Primary Care

This paper examines the effect of the common practice of reserving slots for urgent patients in a primary health care practice on two service quality measures: the average number of urgent patients that are not handled during normal hours (either handled as overtime, referred to other physicians, or referred to the emergency room) and the average queue of non‐urgent or routine patients. We formulate a stochastic model of appointment scheduling in a primary care practice. We conduct numerical experiments to optimize the performance of this system accounting for revenue and these two service quality measures as a function of the number of reserved slots for urgent patients. We compare traditional methods with the advanced‐access system advocated by some physicians, in which urgent slots are not reserved, and evaluate the conditions under which alternative appointment scheduling mechanisms are optimal. Finally, we demonstrate the importance of patient arrival dynamics to their relative performance finding that encouraging routine patients to call for same‐day appointments is a key ingredient for the success of advanced‐access.     

Fatherhood regimes and father involvement in France and the UK

This paper contrasts and compares the institutional framework for fatherhood and father involvement and the survey evidence relating to fathers’ contribution to childcare and domestic work in the two countries. It shows that while men's contribution to such activities appears to be increasing in both France and the UK, change is slow and father involvement does not necessarily seem to correlate directly either with patterns of female labour force participation or with the support offered by the institutional framework. The authors explore the theoretical frameworks most appropriate for explaining their findings and situate them primarily in terms of Pfau-Effinger's theorization of the gender arrangement (1998, 2002, 2004). The authors conclude that while change in father involvement is slow, the introduction of statutory and organizational work–life balance measures which alter the gender order open up opportunities for negotiated change in the division of the labour in the home.     

Welfare vs “Cyberfare”

Due to the continual reliance on an outdated paradigm, current welfare reform proposals fail to adequately address the fundamental problems behind the welfare system itself. Obstacles to welfare reform abound, yet are not insurmountable with a redefinition of the federal role and a new overall way of thinking. Through the reexamination of current and past policies and existing cultural mores, the welfare system could, be recreated to rely on a new paradigm: cyberfare. Cyberfare is an economic and social support system which addresses the issues associated with an information/technology age, global economy, and the changing role of families and social institutions. Although the incorporation of cyberfare and the reforming of the welfare system is not without its challenges, it is vital to solving the poverty problem in American society.     

The Prison Industry: Carceral Expansion and Employment in U.S. Counties, 1969–1994*

Objectives. Despite the interest that social scientists have displayed in the rising rate of incarceration, little attention has been devoted to understanding its consequences for local areas. This is an important omission because prison construction has become a component of state and local economic development schemes. Indeed, there is a widespread belief that prison construction provides significant economic benefits to local areas. Methods. We analyze data on all existing and new prisons in the United States since 1960 and examine the impact of these prisons on the pace of growth (as measured by public, private, and total employment growth) in U.S. counties from 1969 to 1994. To our knowledge, our study is the first comprehensive and longitudinal assessment of the impact of prison construction on local areas. Results. We find no evidence that prison expansion has stimulated economic growth. In fact, we provide evidence that prison construction has impeded economic growth in rural counties that have been growing at a slow pace. Conclusion. Despite sharp ideological and intellectual differences, the critics and the advocates of the prison construction boom share the assumption that prisons can contribute to local growth, especially in hard‐pressed local areas. This belief flies in the face of mounting evidence that state and local initiatives rarely have a significant impact on growth; this belief is also contradicted by our analyses.     

A Hint of Risk: Tradeoffs Between Quantitative and Qualitative Risk Factors

Risk-perception research plays an active role in discussions of risk-management alternatives. However, little guidance is provided regarding how public concerns should be weighed against other sources of cost and benefits. This paper reports the results of two experiments that measure tradeoffs among cost (in dollars), a quantitative risk measure (number of deaths or injuries), and several qualitative characteristics associated with perceived risk. Most subjects were willing to make the requested trade. However, the perceived risk information led others to reject the proposed technology.     

Stigma Happens: Social Problems in the Siting of Nuclear Waste Facilities

The paper by Metz challenges the view that stigma associated with a nuclear waste repository might lead to significant economic losses to the host region. We have been invited to comment on the general issues raised by this paper. We find that much of the evidence presented in the paper consists of factual and conceptual errors and misrepresentations of the research literature. Based on our review of evidence documenting the social and economic impacts of perceived risk, we conclude that stigma is an important phenomenon that is symptomatic of fundamental problems with the way in which nuclear waste facilities are sited.     

AN ANALYSIS OF THE DEBATE ON INTERGENERATIONAL EQUITY AND FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY IN AUSTRALIA

The authorities in a number of advanced countries have produced intergenerational reports that seek to determine the fiscal sustainability of current policy parameters. The Australian government will publish its Intergenerational Report in May 2002. This paper attempts to place these reports in analytical perspective. We examine the notion of intergenerational equity, the conceptual basis for generational accounting, Australian efforts at constructing generational accounts, and then review the intergenerational reports of several other countries. The paper concludes with a brief synoptic discussion of various policies that can help Australian governments achieve intergenerational balance in future.