Calibration as estimation

Calibration in macroeconomics involves choosing fre parameters by matching certain moments of simulted models with those of data. We formally examine this method by treating the process of calibration as an econometric estimator. A numerical version of the Mehra-Prescott (1985) economy is the setting for an evaluation of calibration estimators via Monte Carlo methods. While these estimators sometimes have reasonable finite-sample properties they are not robust to mistakes in setting non-free parameters. In contrast, generalized method-of-moments (GMM) estimators have satisfactory finite-sample characteristics, quick convergence, and informational requirements less stringent than those of calibration estimators. In dynamic equilibrium models in which GMM is infeasible we offer some suggestions for improving estimates based on calibration methodology.     

LAST OF THE DINOSAURS? BIG WEAPONS,BIG SCIENCE,AND THE AMERICAN STATE FROM HIROSHIMA TO THE END OF THE COLD WAR

This article examines the origins and recent crises in linkages between big science, big weapons, and the U.S. state during and after the cold war. We examine the sources of legitimacy of military dominance of U.S. research and development (R&D) in the first decades of the cold war and argue that the exigencies of a nuclear arms race between two superpowers gave the military an unprecedented peacetime claim on science and technology resources. We argue that economic crises, political challenges by peace movements, and technological exhaustion of the nuclear arms race in the 1980s weakened military claims to science and technology leadership, but that the 1991 Persian Gulf war deflected what might have been a major shift in U.S. R&D priorities. We conclude by examining U.S. post-cold war R&D policy and find that military priorities remain preeminent.     

Implementation of Behavioral Marital Therapy

Implementing behavioral marital therapy is discussed with emphasis on the techniques of problem-solving, communications training, behavioral contracting, and homework assignments. The therapist's intervention style and the aspects of treatment which aid in generalization and maintenance of therapeutic gains are also described, and a typical treatment session is outlined.     

Testing equality of proportions with incomplete correlated data

Let (ψ_i,φ_i) be independent, identically distributed pairs of zero-one random variables with (possible) dependence of ψ_i and φ_i within the pair. For n pairs, both variables are observed, but for m₁ additional pairs only ψ_i is observed and for m₂ others φ_i is observed. If π_1· = P{ψ_i = 1} and π_·1=P{φ_i, the problem is to test π_1·=π_·1. Maximum likelihood estimates of π_1· and π_·1 are obtained via the EM algorithm. A test statistic is developed whose null distribution is asymptotically chi-square with one degree of freedom (as n and either m₁ or m₂ tend to infinity). If m₁ = m₂ = 0 the statistic reduces to that of McNemar's test; if n = 0, it is equivalent to the statistic for testing equality of two independent proportions. This test is compared with other tests by means of Pitman efficiency. Examples are presented.     

Simple and Exact Empirical Likelihood Ratio Tests for Normality Based on Moment Relations

The empirical likelihood (EL) technique is a powerful nonparametric method with wide theoretical and practical applications. In this article, we use the EL methodology in order to develop simple and efficient goodness-of-fit tests for normality based on the dependence between moments that characterizes normal distributions. The new empirical likelihood ratio (ELR) tests are exact and are shown to be very powerful decision rules based on small to moderate sample sizes. Asymptotic results related to the Type I error rates of the proposed tests are presented. We present a broad Monte Carlo comparison between different tests for normality, confirming the preference of the proposed method from a power perspective. A real data example is provided.     

Likelihood‐based inferences about the mean area under a longitudinal curve in the presence of observations subject to limits of detection

Comparison of groups in longitudinal studies is often conducted using the area under the outcome versus time curve. However, outcomes may be subject to censoring due to a limit of detection and specific methods that take informative missingness into account need to be applied. In this article, we present a unified model‐based method that accounts for both the within‐subject variability in the estimation of the area under the curve as well as the missingness mechanism in the event of censoring. Simulation results demonstrate that our proposed method has a significant advantage over traditionally implemented methods with regards to its inferential properties. A working example from an AIDS study is presented to demonstrate the applicability of our approach. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Developmental Precursors of Number of Sexual Partners From Ages 16 to 22

This study examines family and child characteristics, parent and peer relationships, and early adolescent behavior as statistical predictors of trajectories of number of sexual partners from midadolescence through early adulthood using data from 527 participants in the Child Development Project. Early adolescent developmental antecedents accounted for modest variance in number of sexual partners. Latent growth models revealed that African American race, more advanced pubertal development, lower parental monitoring knowledge, association with more deviant peers, and lower grade point average in early adolescence each predicted having more sexual partners at age 16. In addition, non‐African American race, lower child IQ, higher parental monitoring knowledge, and lower early adolescent internalizing problems each was associated with a higher rate of growth in number of sexual partners over time at the ages following 16. Latent growth mixture modeling identified subgroups with distinct trajectories of involvement with sexual partners that were associated with family and child characteristics, parent and peer relationships, and behavior in early adolescence.     

Union Professors: Framing Processes,Mobilizing Structures,and Participation in Faculty Unions*

This study traces the development of union loyalties among community college professors. Assuming that activism is motivated by contextual and ideological factors, the paper analyzes the ways that social networks, collegiate workplaces, and framing practices transform political bystanders into committed union members. Using data from a study of junior college professors in Kentucky (N = 329), the study finds that union participation is strongly linked to a distrust of campus administrators and having pro‐union friends and colleagues. Likewise, perceptions of union efficacy, a liberal identity as well the professor’s education level predicted the actual joining of their campus’ faculty union.     

Heterosexuals' attitudes toward bisexual men and women in the United States

This paper examines heterosexual adults’ attitudes toward bisexual men and women using data from a 1999 national RDD survey (N = 1,335). Ratings on 101‐point feeling thermometers were lower (less favorable) for bisexual men and bisexual women than for all other groups assessed—including religious, racial, ethnic, and political groups—except injecting drug users. More negative attitudes toward bisexuals were associated with higher age, less education, lower annual income, residence in the South and rural areas, higher religiosity, political conservatism, traditional values concerning gender and sexual behavior, authoritarianism, and lack of contact with gay men or lesbians. White heterosexual women expressed significantly more favorable attitudes than other women and all men. A gender difference was observed in attitudes toward bisexuals and homosexuals: Heterosexual women rated bisexuals significantly less favorably than they rated homosexuals, regardless of gender, whereas heterosexual men rated male targets less favorably than female targets, regardless of whether the target was bisexual or homosexual.